Pressure, pressure, pressure

by: David Kowalski

Sat Sep 26, 2009 at 05:52


One of the interesting facts is that not only do Democrats in the Senate defect a lot more than Republicans on crucial votes, but they are doing it more often.  Thirty Democrats who were around for 2008 have Progressive Punch scores that are less liberal than their career marks while only 16 are more liberal.  Overall, we are losing an average of 2.5 votes on crucual votes due to this trend.

Liberals/Progressives are essentially showing no trend.  Most scores are pretty close and a similar number are going up as going down.  Regionally, 8 of the 16 with a rising score come from the Northeast.  With the exception of Tom Harkin, all of those with a higher score come from Democratic states in Democratic regions, although you might quibble about Ohio.

Some of those with the biggest increases were big targets of the left who may have decided to move closer to their constituencies: Joe Lieberman went from a pathetic 68.49 career score to an OK 83.33.  DiFi moved from 79.06 to 87.50.  Tom Carper, a particular sore spot for me, went from 70.45 to 81.25.  John Kerry showed some leadership moving from 82.52 to a really good 95.83.

David Kowalski :: Pressure, pressure, pressure
Otoh, conservatives were often way more conservative and there was the strange shift of Russ Feingold.  Feingold went from a career score on crucial votes of 88.08 to a weak 56.25 so far this session.  He might be a good contact for progressives.

Looking at decreases of over 10 points, the leader of the Conservadems, Evan Bayh, dropped from a 73.87 to a lousy 43.75 on clutch votes.  Yes, he's up for re-election but he also has $12 million cash on hand.  The Republicans would be crazy to put up a strong challenger as he really weakens the Democratic Party.

Max Baucus declined from a poor career score of 64.36 to a 47.92.  Jon Tester made a parallel run in MT going from a 70.63 to a 52.08.  I'd like to exert a little local pressure here.  Baucus, in particular, is a major thorn.

Robert Byrd's score declined in part, possibly in large part, due to illness.  The 91 year old dropped from a 74.41 to a 41.67.  Not a target for anything but get well wishes as Manchin, for one, is probably more conservative.  Besides, Byrd is incurably anti-war and I really like that.

Claire McCaskill should get no more featured slots.  She's a major, major disappointment.  Her score went from a weak 67.86 in a limited career to a 54.17.  Way to fire up the base, Claire.  She should have a huge target painted on her back.

I don't consider either Debbie Stabenow (87.67 to 77.08) or Maria Cantwell (85.60 to 75.06)Conservadems but each has dropped by more than 10 points and a little friendly contact might be helpful.

Amy Klobuchar is being talked up by some as a potential President.  Why?  She's dropped from an OK 80.95 to a questionable 62.50.  Full court pressure.

Also dropping by more than 10 points are the will-o-the-wisp Blanche Lincoln (68.71 to 45.83), Ben Nelson (43.38 to 31.25), and Mary Landrieu (67.50 to 56.25).  Local pressure on Lincoln and Landrieu might help.  Nelson needs to start his own party with the Maine Ladies.

Jim Webb (73.81 to 58.03) is amenable to pressure.  Kent Conrad?  I don't think so.

Only three newbies score 90% or higher in crucial votes and none get a particularly easy time from the netroots.  That's right, the best voters from the newbies are either ignored (Edward Kaufman at 95.83), reviled (Roland Burris at 93.75), or treated as a freak show because GOP talking heads savage him (Al Franken at a splendid 100%).  Ease up on Franken,he really is showing leadership in the Wellstone mold.

Jeff Merkley and Kirsten Gillibrand both post 89s although Merley's is sincere and Gillibrand may be merely fighting off a potential primary.  Her House votes were conservative.  She was a Blue Dog.  I frankly don't trust her for the future.

Arlen Specter has gone from a 27 to a 43.75 and is rising.  The switch (and primary) are showing an effect.  Where he would be after an election is an unknown.  Perhaps slightly to the right of Bob Casey (79.17 this session).  Jean Shaheen at 83.33 is a pleasant surprise.  I would have expected a 70 to 75 on crucual votes.

Negative surprises on the newcomers:  Michael Bennet (64.58), Kay Hagan (54.17) and possibly the Udalls.  Begich is running a little scared and a 64.58 from the land of Sarah Palin is a lot more appropriate than a similar score from an appointee in Colorado.  Mark Warner's 75 is way better than Webb's 58 this session.  It is an OK score for him.


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