Senate Forecast, 10/6: Republicans Still Rising

by: Chris Bowers

Tue Oct 06, 2009 at 13:16


October 6th Forecast: Republican Net Gain of 3-5 seats
Would result in Democratic Senate majority of 57-43, 56-44, or 55-45
Previous: Republican Net Gain of 2-3 Seats, September 17th

With Mike Castle set to run for Senate in Delaware, Republicans have rounded out an excellent season of candidate recruiting for them. Their current strength in not only Delaware, but also Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois and New Hampshire is the result of top-tier recruiting efforts. By contrast, Democrats have seen their chances in a number of campaigns--Arizona (Napolitano), Kansas (Sebelius), and North Carolina (Cooper)--take serious blows due to failures to snag top tier recruits. The situation in reminiscent of 2006, when Democrats held the upper hand in Senate recruitment, and used it to make significant gains that year.

Here are some possible reasons to be optimistic, despite this forecast:

  1. Rasmussen, which skews significantly toward Republicans, is over-represented in current polling averages.

  2. A shift of 5% across the broad in these campaigns, some of which can already be accounted for in Rasmussen's over-representation in these averages, would bring Democrats even in the forecast.

  3. Republicans are not within 15% of any other potential pickups, so it can't get much worse for Democrats.
For the next year, the two biggest factors in Senate campaigns will be the outcome of primary elections, and the state of the economy. More than ever, it is clear that Democrats will take a real electoral hit if there is not a significant electoral turnaround.

Current 2010 Senate Outlook: Net Republican Gain of 3-5 Seats
Republican-Held Seats
Democratic Pickups: 1-2 (Ohio, and possibly Missouri)
State Type Democrat Republican Margin #Polls
Ohio
OH Primary Fisher +7.0 2
OH Open Fisher Portman* D 6.5 4
OH Open Brunner Portman* D 3.8 4
Missouri
MO Open Carnahan Blunt* Even 1
Kentucky
KY Primary Mongiardo +7.5 2
KY Primary Grayson +13.0 2
KY Open Conway Paul D 4.3 3
KY Open Mongiardo Paul D 0.7 7
KY Open Conway Grayson R 4.3 3
KY Open Mongiardo Grayson R 5.7 3
New Hampshire
NH Open Hodes* Ayotte R 5.8 4
North Carolina
NC Incumbent Marshall Burr R 10.5 2
Louisiana
LA Incumbent Melancon Vitter R 12.0 1
Keep an eye on Florida as well, if Republican Governor Charlie Crist faces trouble in his primary against Marco Rubio. Texas may also have a special election for Kay Bailey Hutchinson's vacated seat.

Democratic-Held Seats
Democratic Losses: 5-6 (Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware and Nevada, plus one or two of Arkansas, Illinois and Pennsylvania)
State Type Democrat Republican Margin #Polls
Colorado
CO Primary Bennet +14.0 1
CO Incumbent Bennet Norton* R 9.0 1
CO Open Romanoff Norton* R 8.0 1
Nevada
NV Incumbent Reid Tarkanian** R 7.3 3
NV Incumbent Reid Lowden** R 6.0 4
Connecticut
CT Incumbent Dodd* Simmons* R 6.3 3
Delaware
DE Special Biden*** Castle R 5.0 1
Pennsylvania
PA Primary Sestak Specter R +18.3 4
PA Open Sestak Toomey R 3.5 4
PA Incumbent Specter Toomey Even 4
Illinois
IL Special Giannoulis** Kirk* R 3.0 1
Arkansas
AR Incumbent Lincoln Baker D 0.5 2
AR Incumbent Lincoln Coleman D 3.0 2
AR Incumbent Lincoln Cox D 7.0 2
AR Incumbent Lincoln Hendren D 8.0 2
(Barbara Boxer's seat in California, Russ Feingold's seat in Wisconsin, Patty Murray's in Washington, and the open seat special election in Massachusetts are some other campaigns to watch.)

Notes:
*= Faces primary, but heavy favorite
**= Faces serious primary challenges, but only candidate for which general election polling is available.
***= Not an announced candidate at this time
--Illinois is rated behind Pennsylvania, despite the better polling average for Republicans in Illinois, because there is only one recent poll of Illinois.

The forecast is based entirely on polling conducted after May 31st.

Chris Bowers :: Senate Forecast, 10/6: Republicans Still Rising

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Good policy is good politics (4.00 / 1)
And that's why the Dems are s*cking so badly.

1. Trillions in bailouts to the same banksters who caused the crash? Yeppers.

2. Billions in bailouts for health insurance companies with the mandate that guarantees them a market and forces people to buy junk insurance with the IRS acting as a collection agent? Yeppers.

* * *

2. Bailout for homeowners with HOLC? Of course not.

3. Bailout for working people with jobs or even, say, WPA? Of course not.

4. Bailout for everybody with health care that's truly universal (and not the p*ssant [a|the] [robust|strong] public [option|plan]? Of course not.

5. Any accountability for the banksters? Of course not.

6. Any accountability for the health insurance companies? Of course not.

7. Change? Are you sh*tting me?

I am in earnest -- I will not equivocate -- I will not excuse -- I will not retreat a single inch -- AND I WILL BE HEARD.  


The sad thing is (0.00 / 0)
that the change we are arguing for is actually good for the elites too!

America's degeneracy is so complete that even elites are conniving against their own interest!


[ Parent ]
I don't see it (4.00 / 1)
I don't think it's as bleak as all that.

Can Vitter really win the general with his prostitution scandal?

I don't see Toomey winning statewide against either Sestack or Specter.

I don't think Illinois will elect a Republican Senator.

When the Vice President goes to bat for his serving-in-the-military son, with Deleware really turn him down?

I hope you are right about Reid, however. I would much rather see Durbin or Schumer as Senate Majority Leader.

Howard Dean in 2016


Washington?! (4.00 / 1)
Who has the WA GOP recruited for that seat? Patty Murray is a popular Dem who should survive a difficult year for Dems, particularly in the absence of a decent challenger.

The WA GOP's bench is quite thin. Their only decent hopeful, Attorney General Rob McKenna, is prepping for a 2012 gubernatorial campaign. Beyond that they've got nothin'.


Bob Herbert today (0.00 / 0)
Bob Herbert being a lagging indicator:

The survey for the Economic Policy Institute was conducted in September by Hart Research Associates. Respondents said that they had more faith in President Obama's ability to handle the economy than Congressional Republicans. The tally was 43 percent to 32 percent. But when asked who had been helped most by government stimulus efforts, substantial majorities said "large banks" and "Wall Street investment companies."

When asked how "average working people" or "you and your family" had benefited, very small percentages, in a range of 10 percent to 13 percent, said they had fared well.


I'd say 43% to 32% is a bit too close for comfort, given that the Republicans are almost completely unhinged, and the hopey-changey bushwa should really have taken effect by now, if that was going to happen.

Right wing populism, here we come!

I am in earnest -- I will not equivocate -- I will not excuse -- I will not retreat a single inch -- AND I WILL BE HEARD.  


And We're Supposed To Care, Why? (4.00 / 4)
Remember when we thought that electing Democrats would actually make a difference in policy?

Boy did people get stoked!

But now?

The only elections that really matter are primaries, it seems.  Which is why Obama & co. are doing everytihng they can to get rid of them.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3


regarding policy... (0.00 / 0)
the optimist will see it as Sotomayor + crappy policy > GOP policy.

the pessimist will see it as Democrats can't get much done without eventually selling out to the GOP war on good policy and moneyed interests.

the only way I see things getting better is a concerted effort (across the blogosphere) to nuke the senate while giving a huge dose of love to House progressives.


[ Parent ]
The Dems flipping off the more liberal elements (4.00 / 3)
of its base might not be a good strategy for the mid term elections.

I didn't work and contribute to get the Dem the majority so that Blue Dogs and Republicans could write legislation. Also, I get a little tired of reading that some WH official says it would be good politically for Obama to oppose the left of party.

Hopefully, they can get more Republicans voters to replace Democratic ones.


The Democrats don't deserve support. (0.00 / 0)
I can't make the case that the democrats would have been better for the country than, say, the libertarians or the greens.

The fact that they are better than the republicans is all they have left.


No, Republicans aren't still rising. (4.00 / 1)
Other than Delaware and maybe Colorado, the early polls aren't telling the real story and things can easily change in the next 13 months.

- Nevada: This is my state. We always say we don't like Harry Reid, but we always vote to reelect him because the Republicans ALWAYS end up shooting themselves and each other in the feet. Take a look at my coverage and reconsider. While I disagree with her take on Connecticut and Illinois, I do think Amy Walter is on the mark in saying that Reid may be tested... But he's no loser... Especially when looking at the circus of GOP clown car candidates.

- Illinois: Speaking of this state, it's Obama-land and I doubt faux-moderate Kirk can beat someone with The President's blessing. 'Nuff said.

- Connecticut: Like our state and Reid, I just don't see voters here wanting to take out Chris Dodd for some powerless, inept Republican.

- California: This was my home state until recently. Barbara Boxer just isn't vulnerable. Chuck DeVore is another circus clown candidate and "iCarly" is also becoming a political punchline.

I have more to say on more states, but that can be for later. I just wanted to say that the "doom and gloom" here is far too premature. ;-)

Yes, Virginia, there are progressives in Nevada.


Empty suit (0.00 / 0)
A lot of the Republican hopefuls have the Chris Christie look: a PR story with little accomplishments, no policy (or at least nothing appealing) and campaign inexperience.  The conservative columnist for the Newark Star Ledger, Paul Mulshine, really shredded Christie in a follw up column from the recent debate entitled Empty Suit Gets Taken to the Cleaners.

That is exactly what is going to happen to a lot of these Republicans.  Ayotte.  Fiorina. Tarkanian. Norton.  Really.  What's Danny Tarkanian's main accomplishment?  His father won an NCAA basketball title at UNLV while cheating like crazy.  Fiorina?  Named to head a big company and ran it into the ground.  Norton?  You want to defend her environmental record in Colorado?  Ayotte stands for what, exactly?

In November 2010 if they are still around, this crew of "geat" recruits will be taken to the cleaners.  (Castle, otoh, is legit).


Every time one of these forecasts comes up (0.00 / 0)
I can't believe that Pat Toomey is leading in the polls.

Toomey winning in the general, really?  Someone needs to poll PA a lot more.







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