October 6th Forecast: Republican Net Gain of 3-5 seats
Would result in Democratic Senate majority of 57-43, 56-44, or 55-45
Previous: Republican Net Gain of 2-3 Seats, September 17th
With Mike Castle set to run for Senate in Delaware, Republicans have rounded out an excellent season of candidate recruiting for them. Their current strength in not only Delaware, but also Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Illinois and New Hampshire is the result of top-tier recruiting efforts. By contrast, Democrats have seen their chances in a number of campaigns--Arizona (Napolitano), Kansas (Sebelius), and North Carolina (Cooper)--take serious blows due to failures to snag top tier recruits. The situation in reminiscent of 2006, when Democrats held the upper hand in Senate recruitment, and used it to make significant gains that year.
Here are some possible reasons to be optimistic, despite this forecast:
- Rasmussen, which skews significantly toward Republicans, is over-represented in current polling averages.
- A shift of 5% across the broad in these campaigns, some of which can already be accounted for in Rasmussen's over-representation in these averages, would bring Democrats even in the forecast.
- Republicans are not within 15% of any other potential pickups, so it can't get much worse for Democrats.
For the next year, the two biggest factors in Senate campaigns will be the outcome of primary elections, and the state of the economy. More than ever, it is clear that Democrats will take a real electoral hit if there is not a significant electoral turnaround.
Current 2010 Senate Outlook: Net Republican Gain of 3-5 Seats
Republican-Held Seats
Democratic Pickups: 1-2 (Ohio, and possibly Missouri)
| State |
Type |
Democrat |
Republican |
Margin |
#Polls |
| Ohio |
| OH |
Primary |
Fisher |
|
+7.0 |
2 |
| OH |
Open |
Fisher |
Portman* |
D 6.5 |
4 |
| OH |
Open |
Brunner |
Portman* |
D 3.8 |
4 |
| Missouri |
| MO |
Open |
Carnahan |
Blunt* |
Even |
1 |
| Kentucky |
| KY |
Primary |
Mongiardo |
|
+7.5 |
2 |
| KY |
Primary |
Grayson |
|
+13.0 |
2 |
| KY |
Open |
Conway |
Paul |
D 4.3 |
3 |
| KY |
Open |
Mongiardo |
Paul |
D 0.7 |
7 |
| KY |
Open |
Conway |
Grayson |
R 4.3 |
3 |
| KY |
Open |
Mongiardo |
Grayson |
R 5.7 |
3 |
| New Hampshire |
| NH |
Open |
Hodes* |
Ayotte |
R 5.8 |
4 |
| North Carolina |
| NC |
Incumbent |
Marshall |
Burr |
R 10.5 |
2 |
| Louisiana |
| LA |
Incumbent |
Melancon |
Vitter |
R 12.0 |
1 |
Keep an eye on Florida as well, if Republican Governor Charlie Crist faces trouble in his primary against Marco Rubio. Texas may also have a special election for Kay Bailey Hutchinson's vacated seat.
Democratic-Held Seats
Democratic Losses: 5-6 (Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware and Nevada, plus one or two of Arkansas, Illinois and Pennsylvania)
| State |
Type |
Democrat |
Republican |
Margin |
#Polls |
| Colorado |
| CO |
Primary |
Bennet |
|
+14.0 |
1 |
| CO |
Incumbent |
Bennet |
Norton* |
R 9.0 |
1 |
| CO |
Open |
Romanoff |
Norton* |
R 8.0 |
1 |
| Nevada |
| NV |
Incumbent |
Reid |
Tarkanian** |
R 7.3 |
3 |
| NV |
Incumbent |
Reid |
Lowden** |
R 6.0 |
4 |
| Connecticut |
| CT |
Incumbent |
Dodd* |
Simmons* |
R 6.3 |
3 |
| Delaware |
| DE |
Special |
Biden*** |
Castle |
R 5.0 |
1 |
| Pennsylvania |
| PA |
Primary |
Sestak |
Specter |
R +18.3 |
4 |
| PA |
Open |
Sestak |
Toomey |
R 3.5 |
4 |
| PA |
Incumbent |
Specter |
Toomey |
Even |
4 |
| Illinois |
| IL |
Special |
Giannoulis** |
Kirk* |
R 3.0 |
1 |
| Arkansas |
| AR |
Incumbent |
Lincoln |
Baker |
D 0.5 |
2 |
| AR |
Incumbent |
Lincoln |
Coleman |
D 3.0 |
2 |
| AR |
Incumbent |
Lincoln |
Cox |
D 7.0 |
2 |
| AR |
Incumbent |
Lincoln |
Hendren |
D 8.0 |
2 |
(Barbara Boxer's seat in California, Russ Feingold's seat in Wisconsin, Patty Murray's in Washington, and the open seat special election in Massachusetts are some other campaigns to watch.)
Notes:
*= Faces primary, but heavy favorite
**= Faces serious primary challenges, but only candidate for which general election polling is available.
***= Not an announced candidate at this time
--Illinois is rated behind Pennsylvania, despite the better polling average for Republicans in Illinois, because there is only one recent poll of Illinois.
The forecast is based entirely on polling conducted after May 31st.
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