Electoral Support for the Public Option

by: Natasha Chart

Sat Oct 10, 2009 at 12:30

Originally published at OurFuture.org, the blog for the Campaign for America's Future.

Several recent polls have focused on national support for a public option, usually showing that support to be at levels that would translate to hefty electoral margins even greater than those the Democrats secured in 2008. However, we don't have a direct, but a representative democracy.

While the House has passed multiple health reform bills supporting national health care sentiment, the Senate has been especially resistant to including a public opinion in the final bill. In large part, this is likely the result of low-cost media markets in small states allowing corporations to disproportionately effect the outcome of their elections and often countermand even the will of the state's voters, whose contributions and lobbying efforts can be more easily, and cheaply, overwhelmed.

But to the extent that public opinion matters, and I would hope it does, it's harder to argue with its measure as expressed by actual vote totals than it is to argue with polls.

Natasha Chart :: Electoral Support for the Public Option

According to the 2008 census estimates, there are 304,059,724 people living in the United States and 131,257,328 voted in the 2008 election. This is the latest Senate whip count for the public option, a total of 50 Senators are now on the record as favoring the inclusion of a public option in the health care bill. So presuming that Vice President Biden will still vote for a health finance reform bill as per his campaign stance, and that none of the Senate Democrats will filibuster a bill that includes a public option (which none of them are known to be planning), there are now enough votes to pass health reform with a public option.

How does their support line up with their voting constituents and the general public? Inspired by Jed Lewison's breakdown of electoral support for the public option within the Finance Committee, I looked at 2008 census estimates and the US election atlas' 2008 results to put these numbers together:

Senator State Population Senate Split Total Pres Vote % Obama # Obama Votes Last Senate (Re-)Election*

Boxer, Barbara CA - - - - - 6,955,728

Feinstein, Dianne CA 36,756,666 N 13,577,265 60.94 8,274,473 5,076,289

Bennet, Michael CO - - - - - (1,081,188)

Udall, Mark CO 4,939,456 N 2,401,462 53.66 1,288,633 1,166,207

Dodd, Chris CT - Y 1,646,793 60.59 997,773 945,347

Carper, Tom DE - - - - - 170,567

Kaufman, Ted DE 873,092 N 412,616 61.91 255,459 (257,484)

Nelson, Bill FL - Y 8,411,861 48.10 4,282,074 2,890,548

Akaka, Daniel HI - - - - - 210,330

Inouye, Daniel HI 1,288,198 N 453,568 71.85 325,871 313,629

Harkin, Tom IA - Y 1,537,123 53.93 828,940 941,665

Burris, Roland IL - - - - - (3,598,277)

Durbin, Richard IL 12,901,563 N 5,527,602 61.86 3,419,348 3,516,846

Kerry, John MA - - - - - 1,959,843

Kirk, Paul MA 6,497,967 N 3,081,069 61.80 1,904,098 (1,500,738)

Cardin, Ben MD - - - - - 965,567

Mikulski, Barbara MD 5,633,597 N 2,631,596 61.92 1,629,467 1,504,691

Levin, Carl MI - - - - - 3,033,550

Stabenow, Debbie MI 10,003,422 N 5,010,194 57.33 2,872,579 2,151,278

Franken, Al MN - - - - - 1,212,629

Klobuchar, Amy MN 5,220,393 N 2,910,369 54.06 1,573,354 1,278,849

McCaskill, Claire MO - Y 2,928,450 49.24 1,441,911 1,055,255

Hagan, Kay NC - Y 4,310,789 49.70 2,142,651 2,249,311

Dorgan, Byron ND - Y 317,722 44.47 141,278 179,347

Shaheen, Jeanne NH - Y 710,970 54.13 384,826 358,947

Lautenberg, Frank NJ - - - - - 1,951,218

Menendez, Robert NJ 8,682,661 N 3,877,407 57.14 2,215,422 1,200,843

Bingaman, Jeff NM - - - - - 394,079

Udall, Tom NM 1,984,356 N 830,158 56.91 472,422 505,128

Reid, Harry NV - Y 967,848 55.15 533,736 490,232

Gillibrand, Kirsten NY - - - - - (3,008,428)

Schumer, Chuck NY 19,490,297 N 7,640,948 62.88 4,804,945 4,769,824

Brown, Sherrod OH - Y 5,721,815 51.38 2,940,044 201,004

Merkley, Jeff OR - - - - - 864,392

Wyden, Ron OR 3,790,060 N 1,827,864 56.75 1,037,291 1,128,728

Casey, Bob PA - - - - - 2,392,984

Specter, Arlen PA 12,448,279 N 6,014,947 54.47 3,276,363 2,925,080

Reed, Jack RI - - - - - 320,644

Whitehouse, Sheldon RI 1,050,788 N 471,766 62.86 296,571 205,274

Johnson, Tim SD - Y 381,975 44.75 170,924 237,866

Warner, Mark VA - - - - - 2,187,613

Webb, Jim VA 7,769,089 N 3,723,260 52.63 1,959,532 1,175,606

Leahy, Patrick VT - - - - - 212,850

Sanders, Bernie VT 621,270 N 325,046 67.46 219,262 171,638

Cantwell, Maria WA - - - - - 1,184,659

Murray, Patty WA 6,549,224 N 3,053,216 57.34 1,750,848 1,549,708

Feingold, Russ WI - - - - - 1,632,697

Kohl, Herb WI 5,627,967 N 2,983,417 56.22 1,677,211 1,439,214

Byrd, Robert WV - - - - - 296,276

Rockefeller, Jay WV 1,814,468 N 714,868 42.51 303,857 447,985

Totals - 153,942,813 - 94,403,984 - 53,421,163 -

As you can see, of the 30 states these 50 Senators represent, 20 of them are represented by two Senators supporting the public option. Those 20 consensus states and their 40 Senators represent 153 million people, slightly over half the total US population.

Around 57 percent of voters in these 30 states voted for President Obama, who campaigned on a platform that included a public, not-for-profit, health coverage option. Of President Obama's 69,456,897 votes nationwide, voters in these 30 states accounted for 76 percent of his haul.

People voted for change in this election, and the party they chose has been campaigning nationally, and loudly, on a universal health coverage platform for several years. The Senate should give us what we voted for. It's the popular thing, and the right one.

* Election results in parentheses are listed for the immediate predecessor where the Senator is an appointee, all listed appointees replaced other members of the Democratic party.