Many of these progressives were eager to support the opt-out because they believed it would ease passage of the bill, create political problems for Republicans, and that few states would opt-out. However, there were always two major problems with the opt-out, problems that have not been alleviated during the five days since the start of the craze:
No one knows what sort of public option states would be opting out of. It has never been made clear what type of public option states would be opting out of. It could be the weak, Schumer level-playing field public option. It could be the negotiated rates public option. It could be the Medicare +5% public option. It could be a public option even stronger than that. However, no one knows what it actually is:
The group submitted the idea to Senate Majority Harry Reid's office on Tuesday. But as of Thursday afternoon, no official white paper existed for Senators to work off of.
All that existed, indeed, was a somewhat vague idea with a myriad question marks. What kind of national public plan would be established? How, exactly, would states be able to opt-out? Would consumers be allowed to cross state lines for insurance?
If we don't even know what type of public option is in the opt-out compromise, there is no justification for claiming it is a better compromise than Senator Schumer's "level playing field" compromise. For all we know, it might be worse.
We don't know if the opt-out gains any votes. 51 Senators on record in support of the Schumer "level playing field" public option. This means there are enough votes to pass that public option if it achieves cloture. The other nine Democratic Senators fit into two tiers of likelihood on the cloture vote:
High-level threats to vote against cloture: Evan Bayh, Mary Landrieu, Blanche Lincoln and Ben Nelson
Low-level threats to vote against cloture: Max Baucus, Mark Begich, Kent Conrad, Joe Lieberman, and Mark Pryor
Five days after the opt-out craze hit the big-time, not a single member of the high-level threat group has come out in favor of the opt-out plan. The best it has done is to move Ben Nelson from not ruling out a vote against cloture on health care reform with a public option, to saying the opt-out idea is "worth looking at." But it isn't clear that is any movement at all, since Nelson has just moved from being noncommittal to being noncommittal. Nelson did seem open to Carper's "opt-in" proposal, but I think every progressive pundit listed above would agree the opt-in is nowhere near as attractive as the opt-out.
If the opt-out compromise does not gain any votes for health care reform with a public option--which so far it has not--then there is no justification for claiming it is easier to pass then other public options.
These two points--that we don't know what kind of public option is in the opt-out plan and we don't know if the opt-out plan will be easier to pass--render all other discussions about the value of the opt-out idea moot. Considerations such as how many states would opt-out, or the political problems an opt-out would create for Republicans, just don't matter if the proposal doesn't get us any closer to passage. Claims that the opt-out compromise is superior to the Schumer level playing field compromise cannot be justified if we don't know what sort of public option is in the opt-out compromise.
We progressive need to start demanding a higher level of detail and proof before jumping on board with the latest compromise craze. Specifically, we should be looking for Blue Dogs and Conservadems to be jumping on board with compromise crazes before we do. Otherwise, I fear we are just confirming the deeply held belief that progressives are more willing to cave to Blue Dogs and Conservadems than we are to forcing them into line. That is a belief we must dispel if we are going to have a more influential role in governing under the Democratic trifecta.
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