Partisan Trends Showing Independent Voters Declining

by: Chris Bowers

Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 14:15

President Obama has repeatedly emphasized a bi-partisan approach to politics. Early on in Obama's presidency, the highly respected Pew poll declared that "Independents Take Center Stage in Obama Era," indicating that perhaps the country was following the President's lead in de-emphasizing partisanship. More recent polling trends on partisan self-identification suggests that this trend has continued. Over the last five months, Pollster.com shows self-identified Independents gaining significant ground at the expense of both Democrats and Republicans in their partisan self-identification chart:

However, before we declare a new non-partisan, Independent dominated era of politics, it would behoove us to look at the numbers more closely. This is because the polling data suggesting a sharp rise in Americans identifying as non-partisan is among all adults, not among the smaller percentage of Americans who actually vote. Among registered and likely voters, it turns out that the percentage of non-partisan self-identifiers is actually declining:

Over the past year, registered and likely voters in America have demonstrated little, if any, change in partisan self-identification. Democrats are still at 39%, just as they were on Election Day in 2008. Republicans have gained about 2%, moving from 31% to 33% of the electorate. Independents have actually dropped from 27% to 26%. It is also worth noting that third party voting in congressional elections hit a 20-year low in 2008.

The rise in Independents among less likely voters, and the corresponding lack of change among more likely voters, can perhaps be explained as an increasing alienation gap in America. Those people who were only loosely attached to civic institutions like major political parties have become even less attached, while with a greater degree of participation are doubling down. It is perhaps a symptom of increasing socioeconomic stratification in America, and with the seeming inability--or lack of desire--of elected officials to do anything about it.,br>

While their disgust might be understandable, the increasing non-partisan trend among non-voters is not going to change the political dynamic of this country at all. The more people who drop out, the more that powerful institutions will solidify their grasp on the system as a whole.

Chris Bowers :: Partisan Trends Showing Independent Voters Declining

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Partisan Trends Showing Independent Voters Declining | 4 comments

Hard to prove (0.00 / 0)

If this were a more logical universe, we'd just look at voter registration statistics and presto change-o have a nice answer.

California's web site lists registration figures for April.2009 and November, 2005. Denocrats reversed a long, slow decline but Republicans continued to fall. A more recent trend? Can't say.

Texas does not register voters by political party. A primary total might or might not give answers.

New York gives accurate ongoing figures but, alas, only once every 6 months. The trends would seem to show (through April) small drops for both Republicans and Democrats but a slight improvement for Democrats. Makes sense.

Florida? No change with Democrats perhaps having a slight improvement but again it dates to spring.

Pennsylvania? More recent data with the same results.

I really see no evidence that Republicans have bounce off the carpet. Yet. But also no evidence that they are falling apart.

Monthly figures from every state? Dream on.

It probably would be worth the few hours to research every state's figures and I might well do it.

One can tell the Republican secretary of state sites apart easily. They feature "Voter Fraud" as the most important item. Super snark.

by: David Kowalski @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 14:54:42 PM CDT

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re: sos sites (0.00 / 0)

One can tell the Republican secretary of state sites apart easily. They feature "Voter Fraud" as the most important item. Super snark.

LOL!

by: The Big Hurt @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 19:11:54 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

over 90% of independents HATE both (0.00 / 0)

parties.

they do NOT like the chieftan robbers of the thug party.

they do NOT like the praises and prizes credentialed fools running Democratic Programs about as incompetently as you could run anything.

somewhere before they vote, they glom onto whatever bugs them the most, and vote against who they hate the most.

the other 10% of independents are people who can't decide if they should first piss, or brush their teeth, when they get outta bed - EVERYDAY. everything goes to shit from that moment on. they vote according to whatever stupid thing forces them to decide.

OR.................. you could spend all kinds of time and money pretending that this is some kind of mahogany panelled grad school seminar worthy of 400 page tomes... yawn.

I think I'll count belly button lint fibers.

rmm.

It is too full o' the milk of human kindness To catch the nearest way

by: seabos84 @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 20:14:53 PM CDT

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I Question Your assumption (0.00 / 0)

that the independents who are not likely to vote at the present time will be unaffected by the recession and legislative output failures and that these factors will not drive greater numbers of them to vote if appealing candidates present themselves.

I am not sure that this assumption holds water.

I think the 39% of all adult Americans who have refused to join one of the two major parties are and will remain a wild card, and a volatile potential voting bloc that could derail the political status quo during forthcoming election cycles.

I also think it unwise to narrow the political universe to the voters registered in the two major political parties. Voters on the whole hold both in contempt, and with the economic and political turbulence that has been kicked up by the bailouts and the refusal of Congress to pass the single payer option preferred by an overwhelming majority of Americans, or at least a robust public option, the electorate is poised to stage a revolt, assuming appealing candidates appear on the horizon.

by: Nancy Bordier @ Tue Oct 13, 2009 at 22:45:39 PM CDT

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Partisan Trends Showing Independent Voters Declining | 4 comments