Let's look again at Nate Silver's famous plot of Arlen Specter's pursuit of re-election:
Over his career, on crucial votes, according to Progressive Punch, Specter has voted the GOP line about three-quarters of the time. This includes every major George W. Bush initiative (upper-class tax cuts, the Iraq War, the Patriot Act, the Military Commissions Act, warrantless wiretaps, more tax cuts, etc.).
According to Nate's graph, early this year, before his party switch, Specter celebrated the Obama honeymoon by actually voting with the Democrats a little over half the time on contentious votes (votes where the majority of each party is on opposite sides).
In late March, a Quinnipiac poll showed Specter trailing Pat Toomey, the Republican challenger who almost knocked him off last time around. Time to toe the line. Five days after the poll was released, Specter re-introduced his 20% flat-tax proposal that he has been pushing since at least his 1995 his for President. His GOP loyalty shot up to 84 percent. He declared his opposition to the Employee Free Choice Act, killing the chances for labor's highest priority in years.
Then came another poll. Specter trailed Toomey even more -- hopelessly -- and it was time to toe a different line entirely. After 29 years as the Republican Senator from Pennsylvania, Arlen Specter became a Democrat. But he made it very clear this was business, not pleasure. He explained that he switched because his re-election chances as a Republican were "bleak." He insisted he would not be an "automatic 60th vote." He promised not to be a "loyal Democrat."
Specter made good on his promises. He voted against President Obama's budget and "cramdown" mortgage relief. He stood by his opposition to a public health care option, EFCA, and Obama Justice Department nominee Dawn Johnsen. The "you-want-him-you-got-him" GOP was loving it.
Then Joe Sestak entered the race.
Nate notes that after it was apparent that Sestak wasn't going to let Ed Rendell clear the field for his old boss, Specter's Democratic loyalty hit 97 percent. Suddenly, there was a new new Arlen Specter, and he had work to do. He quickly began acting the part of a "loyal Democrat." He reversed his positions, and set about kowtowing to the interests he had slighted.
Specter not only flipped on EFCA, he tried to cast himself as the bill's savior. He told the AFL-CIO convention in Pittsburgh that he had rescued the bill and vowed it would pass this year. Never mind that it wasn't true. Laura Vecsey in the Harrisburg Patriot-News wrote:
With his strangely wild prediction about the controversial labor reform bill called the Employee Free Choice Act, the word is that Specter was so off-message that he even floored his own Senate and campaign staff.
On health care, Specter morphed from a "that's what I said and that's what I meant" opponent of the public option, as he said on Meet the Press, into a defender of single payer, who remarks dutifully at every stop that it should remain "on the table." Steve Benen:
Raise your hand if you think Specter would be saying anything like this if he weren't facing Rep. Joe Sestak in a Democratic primary.
It is not just what he is saying and voting. Back on June 15th, after 29 years in office, Specter made his first appearance at Philadelphia Gay Pride. I am sure that he was just busy during all of the previous decades.
The winner in all this is you, the progressive grassroots. How many hundreds of times have you contacted a member of Congress who opposed an important piece of progressive legislation? And how many times do you feel your calls, emails, letters, blog posts, office visits and even donations have actually made a difference? For me, making a difference like that feels extremely rare. Right now, in my home state of Pennsylvania, it has become par for the course.
In exchange for Specter's timely votes, the White House has plied him with political support, dispatching Cabinet secretaries and hosting multi-million dollar fundraisers. Of course, if Specter is re-elected he won't need any more favors from the White House, or labor, or health care advocates, or environmentalists, or the LGBT community. He'll never again have to face a challenger or be "judged" by any electorate, and Joe Sestak won't be around to remind him how to vote.
So, I say let's just keep Joe Sestak in office. If you haven't already, join the campaign today.
Joe Sestak's campaign website
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