Harry Reid is Going to Lose in 2010 Unless....

by: tremayne

Thu Oct 15, 2009 at 12:27


The latest poll of Nevada residents by MasonDixon/Las Vegas Journal-Review shows Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid to be very unpopular:

Favorable/Unfavorable:

Harry Reid: 38/50

Sue Lowden (R): 31/15

D.Tarkanian (R): 30/11

General Election:

Reid: 39; Lowden: 49

Reid: 43; Tarkanian: 48

When an incumbent is around 50-54% in a poll a year away they are considered vulnerable. Reid isn't even close to 50% in this poll or in this poll from Rasmussen in September. Reid is going to lose without a game-changing event.

Part of Reid's problem, aside from his own lack of leadership ability, is the state of Nevada's economy. It's very bad. Perhaps Reid thinks the game-changing event will be an improving economy is 2010. But it's not likely that citizens will notice much improvement in the next 12 months and, even if they do, they may have soured on Reid too much for him to recover. When progressives in Congress are trying to pass measures to help average citizens it doesn't look good to keep saying "We can't do that, we don't have the votes."

Reid has one chance to reinvigorate his chances which I discuss inside.

Update for Andrew Davey (see comments):  You say the polls are lying and you also say Harry Reid always polls badly before ultimately winning. Can you back that up with some data? Here is what I found. First, the two polls I linked to are by MasonDixon (for Las Vegas Journal-Review) and Rasmussen. According to Nate Silver's analysis of 30+ polling companies, they are both in the top 7 for accuracy. I don't think the polls are lying. Second, a poll commissioned by the Journal-Review 8 months prior to the 2004 election found that Reid would easily beat his GOP opponent with 61% support in the poll. Guess what? Reid ultimately won with 61% of the vote. That result would seem to refute both your claim that the paper's polls are always biased for the GOP and that Reid is always polling badly before ultimately winning on election day.

tremayne :: Harry Reid is Going to Lose in 2010 Unless....

What's left of the Republican party is going to be dumping money into the Nevada race. First, the polls make it clear their chances for victory are quite good. Second, and just as importantly, the GOP needs something to demonstrate their purported "comeback," something to fire up the (increasingly small) base and nothing could be better than taking out the top Senate Democrat. They can't hope to beat Nancy Pelosi in San Francisco so Harry Reid is the top prize.

That's a lot stacked against Reid. Again, he is going to lose. I'm sure most Open Left readers, including myself, won't really care if he loses since it will lead to a new Majority Leader. Someone not named Harry Reid.

But Reid still has a chance and here it is: come out for a strong public option and actually put the "Leader" back in "Majority Leader." Heck, put the "Majority" back in there while you're at it. Here's what being a leader for a strong triggerless public option would do for Harry Reid:

1. It would tell Nevada voters, particularly those who are struggling financially, "I'm with you; I'm not with the insurance industry."

2. It would actually rekindle support from the netroots. Or it would at least "kindle" it since I'm not sure Reid has ever had it. If the Reid campaign is going to beat a motivated GOP campaign they are going to need foot soldiers.

3. Money. Your industry money is not going to be enough Harry Reid. They'll be giving that much and more to the GOP candidate. And that candidate can also expect ample individual donations from Republicans, Tea Partiers, Birthers, etc. Where's your millions in individual donations going to come from Harry Reid? I have an idea: loudly support a strong public option and ram it through the Senate using any tactic required. Donations will follow.

Now, let's consider the alternative ways you, Harry Reid, could go. You could do your usual "I'm for whatever can get 60 votes" routine. You will lose in 2010. You could say "I'm for a public option but unfortunately we don't have the votes." Again, you lose. You could support a weak triggered public option and maybe get the votes for it. You lose again, there will be no enthusiasm, no donations, no volunteers. You could fail to deliver a public option in the Senate only to have one forced by the House in conference. You could even vote for the resulting bill which includes a public option. Again, this just leads to the end of your Senate career. Maybe you're fine with that.

If Reid follows these cowardly paths I would not be surprised, and might even support, a plan to help make sure Reid loses in 2010. I would greatly prefer if that came during the primaries but I don't see a progressive challenger out there. And so, the argument would go, maybe we should help make sure Reid loses to the GOP opponent. We'd lose a Senate seat but we'd gain a new Majority Leader. One that might be able to get things done even if we had "only" 57 seats or so.


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Harry Reid is Going to Lose in 2010 Unless.... | 24 comments
Harry Reid won't lose... (0.00 / 0)
First off, anyone who knows anything about Nevada will tell you that R-J polls are worthless. They ALWAYS favor Republicans. And considering the lame@ss candidates on the GOP side, 2010 will likely end up just like all those other years when Reid was "supposed to lose". (2004, 1998, 1992...)

Secondly, all of us here are working to make sure Reid pushes the public option. I just don't think it helps our efforts for outside groups to start talking about supporting Republicans over Reid. It only angers Nevada Democrats and makes sure you will NOT receive a "warm welcome" at Netroots Nation next year.

So go ahead and push for the public option. I don't even mind the Reid criticism, since lordy knows I've had many problems with his milquetoast style over the years. But when you declare Reid a "loser", you only just energize us to prove you wrong.

Yes, Virginia, there are progressives in Nevada.

Reid Is Toast! (4.00 / 2)
It's a polarized electorate and he can only win by energizing his own base and whipping them to the polls. And by out-organizing his opponents. Money can only buy you so many votes, as Pete Coors found here in Colorado, and numerous Republican ass-hats have found in CA.

But, if Reid was ever going to become a champion of strong health care reform and run on that, he'd have been doing it the last 6 months. He's not suddenly going to change now.

If an incumbent is merely wishy-washy, and nobody feels passionately about him one way or another, then he can win with a huge infusion of cash. The polls don't mean much, because few are really strongly for or against.

Then likely voters see his ads on TV and think "things aren't so bad or the other guy's worse. We should stick with what we have."

But, that just won't work in 2010. Any incumbent who can't convince people that he understands what they're going through and is fighting for them is going to lose.

Harry Reid has the hatred of every conservative. He has tepid support from his own base. The economy is in the toilet. Independents have no reason to support him.

He's stuck inside the Conventional Wisdom that says you have to be perceived as "bi-partisan" so there's that inevitable tendency to try and mollify independents and conservatives who will never in hell vote for him anyway.

I just don't think he understands how fragile the thread is that keeps him in office. He has to do something RADICAL to energize HIS voters and give them a reason to keep him around. but he just can't do it. He'd be criticized even more by the right wing and the media and he doesn't dare take that "risk."

But, when you're already dead meat, it's NOT a risk. We outsiders can see that clearly, but he's blinded by the beltway and conventional wisdom and can't see it.

He can't bring himself to understand and accept the necessity and commit himself.

He tells himself "I've pulled through before, and I'll do it again." He's old and can't change his ways. He's pretty much senile and doesn't dare take a risk because the old ways worked in the past.

It's too bad he can't just gracefully resign at the end of his term and let someone else run on the Democratic ticket.

[ Parent ]
You just don't get it. (0.00 / 0)
And no, you outsiders don't understand Nevada. Reid ALWAYS has crappy poll numbers, but he ALWAYS is reelected because the GOP never recruits good candidates. And now, they don't even have a strong party infrastructure to fall back upon.

How is Reid's stand on the public option different from Obama's or the other Senate leaders? He's said repeatedly that he supports it, so all we in Nevada need to do is make sure he keeps his promise. He knows he needs the base, so he's trying to work with us. After all, he did endorse the National Equality March last week and he's already showing leadership on toher issues, such as LGBT civil rights and the environment.

Seriously, don't talk about something you don't know. I now live here, and I actually talk regularly with real Nevadans who know the history of this state. So called "progressives" who know nothing about this state and talk openly of supporting Republicans aren't helping us local progressives in working with Reid on health care.

Yes, Virginia, there are progressives in Nevada.

[ Parent ]
While other Senate leaders (0.00 / 0)
should be suitably treated depending upon their actions, they aren't the Senate Majority Leader. Anyway, we deplore the lies of Obama and the others every bit as much as those of Reid.

And I'm sick to death of hearing empty words of pseudo-"support" for something being fraudulently equated with action.

Words, even strong ones, let alone the tepid ones emitting from the likes of Reid, mean absolutely NOTHING if they're not backed up by action, wherever you have the power to act.

Reid has the power to bring a strong public option to a vote. If he doesn't do it, he doesn't support it.  

http://attempter.wordpress.com

[ Parent ]
Harry Reid won't stand up ..for anything. (0.00 / 0)
Letting Kyl block and stall on the unemployment extentions is only one of Harry's many lame-ass excuses for why nothing moves but hot air.

Why some Democrat can't jump in the race right now on behalf of Nevadas unemployed is beyond me.  

Are all Nevada Dems Moderate weaklings??
 

Nationalism is not the same thing as terrorism, and an adversary is not the same thing as an enemy.

[ Parent ]
Why did he become Senate Leader anyhow? Blind ambition? (4.00 / 1)
Looks like he's become a victim of the Peter prniciple, someone who finally rose to a position he isn't competent enough to handle. But why does he cling to his chair and not resign from it in order to concentrate on his reelection at home?
Reid was an expert on parliamentary procedure... (4.00 / 3)
....so he was picked as minority leader. He knew how to use it to stymie the republicans, which he did rather well.  He was a massive improvement over Daschle in every regard. The netroots once really liked Reid, but then he had his stroke, and he changed.  The fire was gone from his eyes, and he became the hapless bufoon.  Sad, really.... the stroke took away what made Reid a good leader.  Unfortunately, with us regaining the majority, Reid got automatically promoted, and here we are dealing with a guy who is constantly confused.  It's possible that he's had a few other mini strokes in the meantime, further diminishing his mental state.  It's why he seems to speak gibberish all the time and look like he's lost every second of the day.  He is!

I know it's hard to believe, but Harry Reid was once a pretty damn good leader.  That guy is long gone, though...  The stoke(s) took that away...  Now, we're stuck with a guy who really doesn't have it together in any way shape or form.

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

[ Parent ]
Oh bullshshit... (0.00 / 0)
Reid was and is the lobbyists and Moderates' front man from the very beginning.  That's how Bush succeeded so gloriously, Lieberman got in and the BK Act, FISA, Patriot etc., etc., all were passed.

Daschle was a good man whose priorities were geared to Clinton's agenda, first.


Nationalism is not the same thing as terrorism, and an adversary is not the same thing as an enemy.

[ Parent ]
Agreed (4.00 / 2)
Even if Reid pushes hard for the strong public option, I'd prefer Dick Durbin or Chuck Schumer as majority leader. That's not saying I'd be rooting against him, but I won't be particularly energized about the race. Still, as it stands now, I agree with the diary, there's no way Reid's winning with the lukewarm support he's got with the base now.
Durbin's no better than Reid.... (4.00 / 1)
...Mr. Nice guy who wants to please everyone... Schumer's the guy we want.  He won't let people like Ben Nelson run the caucus.

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!
[ Parent ]
great! (0.00 / 0)
Let's go with Wall Street's boy! Who not only supported the Iraq war, but is all AIPAC all the time!
[ Parent ]
He's the only person that shown ANY leadership... (4.00 / 2)
...on the health care issue.  He also knows how to win.  Compared to Durbin, who couldn't whip a vote if he tried.  Remember, "Banks run the place."

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!
[ Parent ]
They're ALL flawed... (4.00 / 1)
So most likely everyone here still won't be happy if Reid is replaced by Schumer or Durbin. So maybe instead of just trashing them, we should just ask them to show some leadership and keep whipping up votes for the public option in the mean time? I know, novel thought...

Yes, Virginia, there are progressives in Nevada.
[ Parent ]
Barbara Boxer for majority leader (4.00 / 2)
we need another woman and we need someone strong for the environment.
besides (4.00 / 2)
Boxer voted against the Iraq War Authorization Act.
[ Parent ]
It's the Economy (0.00 / 0)
Under ordinary circumstances I'd probably think that Reid will recover.  Clearly he badly needs enthusiasm among Democratic voters and if he becomes the hero of health care (i.e. enacting the public option) I'd follow Harry Reid to the end of the earth.

Absent Harry becoming a Hero I agree that he will lose in 2010.  The ecomomy in Nevada, especially in Las Vegas, is so bad -- perhaps the hardest hit in the country outside of Michigan -- that there is discernable anger and incumbents always bear the brunt of that.  Las Vegas is in a depression with 20 streight months of decreased visitation and gambling.  Reid will have lots of money.  It will be an interesting test of how many votes a well-financed campaign can buy.  The GOP is also hated in Nevada but Harry Reid is no better than an even bet.  I'm sure his replacement will be really awful, I hope Reid beats the odds.

Reid will. He always does. (0.00 / 0)
First off, thanks for being rational. And secondly, don't worry too much. Remember 1998? That was actually John Ensign's first Senate race, challenging Harry Reid. And like now, this was supposed to be a GOP pick-up. Clinton had his national problems, and Ensign then was a clean-cut rising star in Nevada. The GOP had everything going for them, but Reid still won that year.

So if Reid could win then, he will win again next year. If he delivers on health care (and I'm sure he will if we keep pressuring him the right way), that will be a major accomplishment. And here in Nevada, he's worked hard to boost the gaming industry. With City Center opening in December, other casino projects on the way, and more federal stimulus funds coming to Nevada, I'm hopeful the jobs picture will change for the better in the next year.

And especially with a continued 8% voter registration edge, weakened GOP (lack of) infrastructure, and strong Democratic turnout, Reid will survive another election. We just need to get him to hold on the public option for health care and a strong climate bill. By pushing him left, we'll help motivate the base that will save him. :-)

Yes, Virginia, there are progressives in Nevada.

[ Parent ]
No, he will try and bail out real estate investors (0.00 / 0)
since Nevada is still hemoraghing.  Extend,expand the $8000 (which has been costed as ~$40,000 /house cost to taxpayer) tax break. Pandering to those with money, the normal campaign play.
I'm not "those with money"... (0.00 / 0)
But I am a first time homebuyer who's looking forward to an $8000 rebate check next year! Jeez, what's wrong with helping people afford to buy their new home! Aren't progressives supposed to be about helping working people?

And btw, I know many more people here in Las Vegas, WORKING CLASS PEOPLE, who are also benefitting from the tax credit. We're not just playing with numbers in a theoretical world, but we're actually buying homes and hping to stablize one of the most distressed real estate markets in the nation.

Yes, Virginia, there are progressives in Nevada.

[ Parent ]
The credit pushes up the cost of homes (0.00 / 0)
So the benefit goes to homebuilders and mortgage lenders on existing homes.

Besides, why favor homeowners over renters? On average, homeowners are substantially better off.

[ Parent ]
see update in main post (0.00 / 0)
n/t
We Should WANT Reid To Lose (0.00 / 0)
In fact, we should make sure we help the process along, by running a progressive against him--both in the primary and the general election.

Reid has been a huge impediment to progressive legislation, and by helping to defeat him, we show that there's a price for that.  If we don't do that, we are simply walking around with a "kick me" sign on our butts, in day-glo letters, with flash animation.

Of course, I might have tempered my remarks a bit, if Reid had given any indication at all that having 60 votes meant anything at all.

But since it clearly doesn't with him as Majority Leader, he himself has shot his own best argument full of holes.

No one to blame but himself.  He's the one with the "kick-me" sign on his butt right now.

When he asks us to take it off his hands, we should tell him politely, "No fucking thanks."

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

Doesn't mean we have to actually do anything (0.00 / 0)
For me, I don't know if I actually want him to lose, so much as, in the absence of a viable liberal alternative, I wouldn't really care if he lost, but I'm not actually rooting for the Republican. (The same cannot be said for Ben Nelson, who unlike Reid is truly a disgusting blight on the Democratic caucus.)

I think that, regardless of whether we want him to win or lose, we shouldn't expend any money or energy against him.  Given that Majority Leaders in general have to follow their caucus as much as they lead them, our efforts would be much better used going towards electing more liberal Senators.

[ Parent ]
Walk And Chew Gum (0.00 / 0)
Progressives in Nevada should be recruiting someone to replace Reid, and we should be supporting them.  It may not be realistic to elect a replacement this cycle, but the sooner someone steps up and runs, the sooner they'll be positioned to win.

We can do that and work toward electing more liberal senators in other states at the same time.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
Harry Reid is Going to Lose in 2010 Unless.... | 24 comments





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