Here is the calendar for the ongoing process of merging the three House health reform bills and the two Senate health care bills:
House
October 16-19. House leadership receives and reviews Congressional Budget Office "scores" for various health reform bills. Some of these CBO scores had been received by Friday the 16th, as demonstrated by the leak of two partial scores to some media outlets.
October 20: The entire House Democratic caucus will meet, at which time the leadership will share all of the CBO scores with them.
October 21-26: Following the release of the various CBO scores to the entire Democratic House caucus, the House leadership will whip the entire caucus to determining which health care bill has the most support.
October 26: Based largely on the whip and the CBO scores, the leadership will choose a health care bill to send to the floor.
October 26-29: The House health care bill will be released to the public for a 72-hour review period. The leadership will also begin the process of sending the bill through the Rules committee.
October 29: Earliest day the House leadership could pass the health care bill through the Rule Committee, thus bringing it to the floor for debate and amendments.
This means tomorrow is a big day for health care in the House. Expect to see all of the CBO scores on the various health care bills, as well as initial estimates on which bill is most popular with the membership.
Speaker Pelosi's goal is to pass a bill through the House with a public option that is cheaper than the Senate Finance Committee's bill which lacks a public option. The idea is that it would put public option opponents, who have repeatedly harped on the cost of the bill, in a position where they would have to support a more expensive bill in order to oppose the public option.
The goal of the Congressional Progressive Caucus is to pass a health care bill with a "robust" public option, which means a public option tied to Medicare rates +5%. As of last week, they had about 206 or 207 members on board with that public option. While that is close to passage, it also means they need the support of the House leadership get over the 218 vote finish line.
It is unclear whether it is possible to achieve both Speaker Pelosi's goal, and the Congressional Progressive Caucus's goal. This is largely due not to the cost of the robust public option, but to Speaker Pelosi's desire to pass a bill with around 230-240 votes, rather than a wafer thin 218. The best case scenario is probably for a compromise Medicare +5% public option that includes $20 billion in funding for rural hospitals.
Information on the Senate merger process in the extended entry.
Update: The House caucus meeting is tonight, not on the 21st, as I originally reported here.
Senate The current deadline for sending a merged Senate health care bill to the floor is October 26th. However, it seems unlikely that this deadline will be met. There are two roadblocks to that deadline:
A determination must first be made on whether or not to include a public option. Clearly, that will not happen either today or tomorrow, given that Harry Reid today said the negotiators are "leaning toward talking about a public option." Leaning toward talking about it, eh? Gee guys, don't move so fast.
Once a determination has been made about whether or not to include a pubic option, the merged Senate bill will be sent to the CBO for scoring. This process always takes a few days. No bill will be sent to the floor before the scoring is released.
So, once again, the Senate is dragging its heels a bit. Don't expect a bill to be sent to the Senate floor anytime before November 3rd.
The big question is if they will send a bill to the floor before November break, which is currently scheduled to start on the weekend of November 7-8.
A secondary question is if House Blue Dogs will be able to slow the process in the House down to the same crawl we have seen in the Senate. One of their key demands--which they consider more important than the public option--is that the House not move any faster on health care reform than the Senate. You know you are a leader when your key legislative demand is that you don't have to vote before everyone else.