I wonder (0.00 / 0)

I do hope Paul responds to this. It seems a reasonable take on what's likely to happen, or would be likely to happen, if we had the political environment today that we had in 1994. Since I don't think that we do, it seems to me that we could afford to be a bit less risk averse than you're advocating.

If the Republicans do win the House in 2010, my own sense of things is that being even crazier and less competent than the Republican freshman class of 1994, they'd be lucky to last until 2012. The economic instability which underlies the supposed renaissance of the financial sector in the past year would almost seem to guarantee that. I suppose that how you view the situation depends on how long you think that voters will put up 200+ Glenn Becks in the Congress.

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by: William Timberman @ Fri Oct 23, 2009 at 13:38:21 PM UTC

Redistricting will help Republicans (4.00 / 1)

Unlike the freshman class of 1994, the freshman class of 2010 is likely be have the benefit of 2011-2012 being a redistricting cycle.  Since Republicans are likely to control redistricting in most states, these seats will be made much safer for these Republicans, likely locking in their gains for a decade unless Democrats somehow do far better than expected at the state legislative(who will be drawing the district lines) than expected.    

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by: BobTegas @ Fri Oct 23, 2009 at 13:58:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

A good point, (0.00 / 0)

but to be honest, I don't think they'll have a decade. A banana republic with 300 million people in it is a powder keg, especially when its population considers prosperity, however narrowly defined, as their birthright.

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by: William Timberman @ Fri Oct 23, 2009 at 15:18:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not To Mention The Election of Glenn Beck As President (0.00 / 0)

in a special election on Christmas day!

If you believe Charlie Cook--a Versailles God who thinks that Alan Grayson is in trouble!--then I've got a bridge to sell you.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

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by: Paul Rosenberg @ Fri Oct 23, 2009 at 17:44:09 PM UTC

Hmm, certainly not the best source, but... (0.00 / 0)

..on the other hand, even our Chris sez Dems will lose seats. Ok, looks they will still keep the majority, but this will make it harder to pass legislation. Even if it will be mostly Bluedogs which will be kicked out. I don't see how the chances will be better next year or 2011. Remember how long it took after the Clintoncare fiasco to start the next attempt!

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by: Gray @ Mon Oct 26, 2009 at 12:32:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

RUN, RUN FOR YOUR LIVES (0.00 / 0)

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by: The Big Hurt @ Sun Oct 25, 2009 at 03:12:16 AM UTC