The merger process is nearly complete. We should know by Wednesday, and possibly as early as tomorrow, what sort of health care reform bills both the House and Senate Democratic leaderships will send to the floors of their respective chambers. Of course, we will also know what sort of public option will, or will not, be included in those bills. Here is the run of play on the merger process in each chamber:
Where the Senate stands The big news today is in the Senate. Reportedly, Harry Reid is ready to send a merged bill to the Congressional Budget Office. Last week, Reid indicated that when he finally sent a bill to the CBO, it would mean he had made a decision on the public option:
"I've had a number of meetings in my office, dealing with Democrats and Republicans on the public option aspect of it...when the decision's made to send this on to the CBO, I will have made a decision as to what we're going to do with the public option.
Senate leaders plan to submit the bill to the Congressional Budget Office for a cost estimate as soon as Monday, and make the legislation public as soon as Tuesday, according to a person familiar with the negotiations.(...)
The bill to be brought to the Senate floor would create a new public health-insurance plan, but would give states the choice of opting out of participating in it, a proposal that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada backed last week.
It is highly likely that the opt-out will be on Senator Schumer's "level playing field" public option. Even before the opt-out, this makes it weaker than even the worst-case scenario for the public option in the House (which I describe below). Still, it would be a trigger-less public option, and change the debate from whether or not there will be a public option, to what sort of public option there will be.
Reportedly, as of Friday, Reid was only one or two votes from reaching 60 on this public option. If he really is sending the opt-out public option to the floor, then he must have either rounded up the remaining votes, or bet that no Democrat would publicly vote against a motion to proceed to a floor debate for the health care bill.
Either way, Reid appears to be making these decisions without any particular assistance from the White House. No matter which of the two main rumors you believe--that the White House is staying neutral or that the White House is pushing the trigger--the White House does not appear to be pushing Reid toward the opt-out. This is a decision he is making on his own.
Harry Reid is holding a press conference at 3:15 p.m., eastern, to discuss the Senate merger process. We will be covering it.
Where the House stands can be found in the extended entry.
Where the House stands In the House, the decision on what sort of public option to send to the floor is also close. Back on Friday, I was told that the decision would be made "early next week," which right now means "early this week."
We should know by Wednesday, at the latest, what sort of bill Speaker Pelosi intends to send to the floor. Given the stakes involved, the bill that is sent to the floor will already have 218 "solid yes" votes for passage before the vote takes place.
The basic run of play is that the leadership began pushing a bill with a public option not only at Medicare +5% rates, but at Medicare +5% rates indefinitely. (This is instead of pushing a public option with Medicare +5% for only the first three years, before moving to negotiated rates.) As of Friday, the leadership was close--less than ten votes--from feeling it had enough (that is, 218) "solid yes" votes on health care reform with this version of public option.
I unfortunately have no new updates on where the count stands. Keep in mind, however, in moments like these where the leadership is scrounging up final votes, many "solid yes" members can smell a chance for a concession, and switch to "undecided" in order to send a pet project back home to their districts. So, the leadership is both less than ten votes away, and also potentially more than 40 votes away.
If the leadership fails to round-up the necessary 218 "solid yes" votes, the next step would be to start negotiating changes to the legislation to with wavering members. These negotiations would involve both public option and non-public option related matters, as the primary roadblock for many members is not actually the public option itself.
In terms of changes that might be made to the public option during this process, the first step would probably be to return to the public option with Medicare +5% rates for only the first three years of its existence. If no agreement can be forged even with that compromise, a public option with negotiated rates from the start would be sent to the floor. The public option in the health care bill that passes the House will not be weakened beyond that point.
The stronger the public option in the House bill, the better the negotiating position for the public option in the eventual conference committee.
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