NY 23 (0.00 / 0)

I have a feeling that the polls might understate the support for the wingnut Hoffman in NY 23, because the fire-breathing goobers are more likely to show up on Tuesday.  I'd bet that their commitment to actually vote is higher.

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by: global yokel @ Thu Oct 29, 2009 at 23:10:24 PM UTC

i lean that way (0.00 / 0)

Even if the polls are right, he seems to be surging. I kind of think he is going to win.

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by: Chris Bowers @ Thu Oct 29, 2009 at 23:55:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

WTF (0.00 / 0)

What the hell is wrong with these idiots???

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by: yitbos96bb @ Fri Oct 30, 2009 at 04:08:40 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

who cares (0.00 / 0)

I dont think that a Hoffman win would be as bad for Dems as for the GOP.  How would the Republican party spin a loss to a total Wingnut party.  I think the GOP would be forced by its base to run more to the right, and empower the Palin voters: long term strategic catastrophe for the GOP.  

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by: winston smith @ Fri Oct 30, 2009 at 05:27:47 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

with Daggett buried down-ballot (0.00 / 0)

I expect him to finish below 10 percent. That worries me, as I believe his leaners are more likely to land with Christie.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

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by: desmoinesdem @ Fri Oct 30, 2009 at 01:09:22 AM UTC

I'm not too worried... (0.00 / 0)

The Democratic Machine in New Jersey is quite strong, and Christie's shine has really turned to rust in the last few weeks with scandal after scandal breaking. I'm not ready to break open the champagne yet, but I have a good feeling about Corzine making it next Tuesday.

Virginia, OTOH, is turning out to be one HUGE clusterf*ck! Why did anyone think that Deeds was the "most electable" Dem? And why has he been running such a gawd awful campaign that could end up sinking the entire Blue Ship next week?

Yes, Virginia, there are progressives in Nevada.

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by: Andrew Davey @ Fri Oct 30, 2009 at 01:46:43 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I want to spend as much time as possible calling for No on 1... (4.00 / 1)

This weekend. Rumor has it the DKos poll shows a little improvement for No on 1 Maine, but it's still super close at 47% Yes/48% No. It seems there's a schism in Maine polling with some polls showing a near or exact tie and others showing a slightly larger No on 1 lead. I want to believe the latter polls are true, but we can't afford to throw aside precautions.

I hope I won't be the only person around here calling for equality!

Yes, Virginia, there are progressives in Nevada.

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by: Andrew Davey @ Fri Oct 30, 2009 at 01:43:37 AM UTC

what do the polls say in Washington? (0.00 / 0)

I'll confess I have the vague sense they were good, but don't really know.  We need a yes vote there.


New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.

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by: Hopeful in NJ @ Fri Oct 30, 2009 at 14:13:14 PM UTC

50 uphold - 43 no (0.00 / 0)

Voters are prepared to uphold a new state law expanding gay rights, a new SurveyUSA/KING5 poll shows.

The survey says half of those questioned would approve Referendum 71 and 43 percent would reject it. Seven percent remain undecided.

The same poll shows Tim Eyman's latest government spending measure, Initiative 1033, could be heading to defeat. Fiftey percent are voting no, 38 percent are voting yes and 12 percent are unsure, the survey of 567 likely and actual voters says.

We'll add a link to the details of the poll as soon as its available.

The election is Nov. 3.

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seat...

I see it was 4-42 on oct. 7:

A new KING5/SurveyUSA poll shows that next month's vote on whether to uphold the state's new "everything but marriage" same-sex domestic partner law will likely be close.

Referendum 71 was put on the ballot by people seeking to strike down the law passed by the Legislature this year. A "yes" vote keeps the law in place; a "no" vote strikes it down.

According to the survey:

# 45 percent of likely voters say they are certain to approve R-71.
# 42 percent say they are certain to reject it.
# 13 percent are undecided.

Men are certain to reject R-71 by a 46 to 42 percent margin, the poll says, while women woud approve it 48-36. People ages 18-34 approve of R-71, 58 percent to 36 percent.

There's a stark divide among people who identify as Democrats and Republicans on the measure. Democrats would approve it 72-15 while Republicans would reject it 72-17, the poll says.

The survey of 548 likely voters was taken Oct. 3-5 and has a margin of error of 4.3 percent.

The original domestic partnership law, backed by Sen. Ed Murray, D-Seattle, two years ago, provided inheritance rights in cases where there was no will, hospital visitation rights, the ability to authorize autopsies and organ donations. About 6,000 domestic partnership registrations have been filed since July 2007.

Some rights and responsibilities that would be extended to gay and lesbian families under the latest legislation are:

# Victims' rights, including the right to receive notifications and benefits allowances.
# Business succession rights.
# Legal process rights, such as the ability to sign certain documents, the requirement to join in certain petitions, rights to cause of action, and ability to transfer licenses without charge.
# The right to use sick leave to care for a spouse.
# The right to wages and benefits when a spouse is injured, and to unpaid wages upon death of spouse.
# The right to unemployment and disability insurance benefits disability insurance issues
# Workers' compensation coverage.

New Jersey, California, New Hampshire, Oregon, Washington and the District of Columbia have laws that either recognize civil unions or domestic partnerships that afford same-sex couples similar rights to marriage. Thirty states have gay marriage bans in their constitutions.

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seat...

more http://blog.seattlepi.com/seat...
or
http://www.seattlepi.com/elect...

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by: The Big Hurt @ Fri Oct 30, 2009 at 19:50:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

that's 45-42 on the oct. 7 poll (0.00 / 0)

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by: The Big Hurt @ Fri Oct 30, 2009 at 19:51:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Margin Spin (0.00 / 0)

If, as predicted here & elsewhere, Corzine wins by a hair and McDonnell wins by a huge margin (I don't think 20 points is impossible) will the spin from the Village have any lasting effect and do real damage to Democrats OR is this a case of what happens in November is forgotten after New Years?  In other words will Chris Matthews or Bill "Loofah" O'Reilly still be talking about this or will they soon move on to the war against Christmas?

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by: howardpark @ Fri Oct 30, 2009 at 17:01:05 PM UTC

the DGA spin by the way (0.00 / 0)

Is that for the last 24 years straight the party in the White House lost both states. So Repub winning both is a push and winning one is a loss. Actually it's pretty good spin.

New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.

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by: Hopeful in NJ @ Fri Oct 30, 2009 at 17:34:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The Republicans would spin (0.00 / 0)

a 20 point loss in every one of these races as a win, while Democrats would fret that 20 points wins in every race weren't 25 point wins.

The media reflects the views of the Village - if there weren't so many in the Democratic Party who have an interest in pushing the 'America is a conservative country' meme, the media coverage might come closer to reflecting reality.

Politics is the art of the possible, but that means you have to think about changing what is possible, not that you have to accept it in perpetuity.

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by: David Kaib @ Sat Oct 31, 2009 at 03:23:57 AM UTC

[ Parent ]