New Jersey: Corzine with a 54% chance to win

by: Chris Bowers

Fri Oct 30, 2009 at 13:16

Update: New Rasmussen and Zogby (live interview, not Internet) polls added, and slight earlier mistakes corrected. Corzine's chance of victory drops to 54%.

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The New Jersey Governor's race is not quite a coin flip, but it is pretty close. As of Friday afternoon, I give incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine a ~~60%~~ 54% to win.

First, here is the complete list of polls that will be included in the final polling average:

New Jersey Governor's Race, 2009
All polls with majority of interviews conducted 10/19 or later

Pollster Mid-Date Corzine Christie Daggett

Total 10/30 41.23 40.92 11.15

Rasmussen 10/29 43 46 8

Zogby 10/28 40 39 14

Democracy Corps 10/28 43 38 12

Neighborhood 10/28 35 42 8

Daily Kos 10/27 41 42 14

Survey USA 10/27 43 43 11

Rasmussen 10/26 43 46 6

FDU 10/25 44 43 11

PPP 10/25 38 42 13

Suffolk 10/24 42 33 7

Quinnipiac 10/23 43 38 13

Democracy Corps 10/21 42 39 13

Survey USA 10/20 39 41 19
The methodology used to produce this table can be found here. Because the election is so close, I have only included polls that will appear in the final polling average, even if the majority of their interviews were conducted within the last 15 days.

Second, of the 87 statewide campaigns I have looked at from 2005-2008, there were 35 40 cases where the Republican gained more than ~~0.55%~~ 0.31% from the final polling margin to the final vote margin. So, right now, rounding to the nearest percentage point, I project that Jon Corzine has a ~~60%~~ 54% chance to retain the Governorship in New Jersey.

Also, there is a 5% chance that the campaign will be decided by less than one-tenth of one-percent, which would result in a long recount.

Given the fairly widespread perception that New Jersey Democrats perform better from the final polls to the final vote, in the extended entry, I consider the possibility that there is a hidden Democrat vote.

Chris Bowers :: New Jersey: Corzine with a 54% chance to win

Hidden Democratic Vote?
There is a fairly widespread perception that Democrats in New Jersey do much better from the final polls to the final result. While I have only looked at five cases so far, my research does not strongly suggest this to be the case:

New Jersey--Comparing Final Polls To Final Margin

Campaign Final Predicted Margin Final Result Shift

2004-President Dem +6.67 Dem +6.68 Dem +0.01

2005-Governor Dem +7.07 Dem +10.43 Dem +3.36

2006-Senate Dem +6.00 Dem +9.03 Dem +3.03

2008-President Dem +16.00 Dem +15.53 Rep +0.47

2008-Senate Dem +15.00 Dem +14.08 Rep +0.92
Two of the five New Jersey campaigns shifted significantly toward Democrats (2005 Governor and 2006 Senate), two campaigns shifted slightly toward Republicans (2008 President and 2008 Senate), while one campaign was right on the money (2004 President). If I was a New Jersey Democrat (and I am only 4 miles from being one), I would not draw any comfort from this. There is just not a solid reason to believe that Corzine will definitely improve from the final polling margin to the final result.

It's a tight one in New Jersey--Corzine at a ~~60%~~ 54% chance to win.

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New Jersey: Corzine with a 54% chance to win | 6 comments

you'll update on Monday though? (0.00 / 0)

A number more polls will come out.

New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.

by: Hopeful in NJ @ Fri Oct 30, 2009 at 12:22:19 PM CDT

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of course (4.00 / 1)

updates on monday and tuesday. Maybe over the weekend, too.

by: Chris Bowers @ Fri Oct 30, 2009 at 12:26:39 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

also (0.00 / 0)

The Suffolk poll has a big effect. If I take it out, Christie's average 41.2 and so it's a tie. Of course that only moves us to Corzine 50%, Christie 50% so maybe it doesn't matter.

I know Chris has picked his method and shouldn't change afterwards, but it's worth keeping in mind.

A justification to throw out Suffolk (besides that it's an the outlier) is that they reported Dem-Indy-Rep breakdowns (as pollster Patrick Murray of Monmouth pointed out) that exactly match voter registration percentages. This is not good because actual turnout is much different with independents a much smaller percentage (either because independents stay home or more likely that self-identified Democrats/Republicans don't bother to register that way.) On the other hand, I'd have guessed that should hurt Corzine more than Christie, but who knows?

Zogby by the way has Corzine by one so it doesn't make any difference Chris threw it out.

New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.

by: Hopeful in NJ @ Fri Oct 30, 2009 at 12:31:05 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

new poll (0.00 / 0)

As you'll see in pollster.com (or PolitickerNJ, who really reported it), there's a new poll by a conservative and it's very small, but by your rules I think you are supposed to count it. With Corzine at 35 and Christie at 43 it may matter. But then again plenty more will come out.

New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.

by: Hopeful in NJ @ Fri Oct 30, 2009 at 15:17:56 PM CDT

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It's all Daggett (0.00 / 0)

According to the local papers and polls about 2/3 of the votes leaking from Daggett would be going to Christie. The effect of Daggett at 20 (his high pont) and Daggett at 11 is to give Christie about 3 points switching things from a small Corzine lead to a tie.

Daggett has a horrible placement on the ballot in my sample here in Essex (second column, second name). The big 2 are in the first column. The second column has no header to indicate it's for Governor.

Corzine was never able to do the easy job of connecting Cgristie to proposing a massive property tax increase. Easy because Chrisitie actually proposes increasing to $8 billion deficit another $700 million net by shoving transportation costs to the general fund. Christie's solution is simply to shove enough costs to the municipalities to make things balance. NJ, as everyone should know, has the highest property taxes in the nation but a low income tax that is almost or entirely used to funs school and other municipal costs (reducing taxes) or send rebates to taxpayers. The "Christie Plan" would wipe out 80% of the income tax benefit, probably keeping the rebate but totally eliminating all state aid.

That plan is clearly unconstitutional. The state Supreme Court forced the income tax because school funding totally basaed on property taxes violated the state Constitution.

Christie should be crushed. He hasn't been. Not good.

by: David Kowalski @ Fri Oct 30, 2009 at 16:50:50 PM CDT

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I can't believe that Corzine might actually pull it off (0.00 / 0)

considering that he's been in the dumps pretty much this whole time.

If you asked me two or three months ago I would've never thought Corzine would have a better-than-even chance of winning.

by: liberalmaverick @ Fri Oct 30, 2009 at 20:37:22 PM CDT

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