Edwards's rationale for keeping his powder dry so far could to possibly be connected to financial concerns. He has raised more money so far than John Kerry raised before Iowa in 2004, and even than Dean raised at this point in 2003. I think, instead, it comes from his experience in the previous cycle, where he saw early ad buys not accomplish all that much:
At this point in the 2004 cycle, Edwards had spent the most -- about $806,000, followed by Sen. John Kerry, who had spent $558,000. Gov. Howard Dean and Rep. Dick Gephardt had each spent about $350. Dean wound up spending $3.6M on Iowa media before his third place caucus finish, followed by Kerry, the winner, who spent $3M.
I can only read this as Edwards believing that he made a mistake spending so much early in Iowa last time.
These numbers might also be a little worrisome for Obama, given that he has spent so much and is only slightly up in Iowa polls. However, Obama has so much money, it probably isn't all that worrisome. He has the resources to spend $10M in paid media in Iowa this cycle.
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