Virginia Election Results Thread--McDonnell Wins

by: Chris Bowers

Tue Nov 03, 2009 at 18:59


The first campaign up tonight will be Virginia, at 7 p.m. eastern.

Virginia-Governor (36.44% Reporting)
McDonnell (R):62.12%
Deeds (D): 37.77%

Update 1: One thing to note about Virginia is that the pro-Republican areas tend to report first. So, in an election that is already expected to be a blow-out, this could get real ugly, real fast.

Update 2: Some early exit poll data from Virginia (emphasis mine):

In 2008, candidate Obama won independent voters in Virginia, 49%-48%, according to exit polls. But the exits in this year's contest show that independents abandoned Creigh Deeds (D) and went overwhelmingly for the Republican, Bob McDonnell, 62%-37%.

Voters, age 18-29, made up more than one in every five voters in 2008 (21%) in Virginia. This year, they made up just 10%. They broke 60%-39% for Obama, but just 51%-47% for Deeds.

By contrast, older voters (65+) made up more of the electorate this time around in Virginia. In 2008, voters 65 and older made up 11% of the electorate; in 2009, 18%. They broke for the Republican both times by similar margins -- in 2008, 53%-46% for John McCain; in 2009, 55%-45% for McDonnell.

That is a seriously depressed base in Virginia.

Update 3: To no one's surprise, McDonnell wins. I guess Deeds just didn't swerve far enough to the right. After all, the under-30 vote was only cut in half. He could have done better than that.

Another great victory for Blue Dogism. This thread won't be updated anymore.
Chris Bowers :: Virginia Election Results Thread--McDonnell Wins

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Virginia Election Results Thread--McDonnell Wins | 20 comments
No projection yet is a good sign (4.00 / 1)
I thought Deeds would be buried at 7:00 and 20 seconds by the networks.

John McCain won't insure children
virginia (0.00 / 0)
In a just and rational world, nobody would vote Republican ever again.  Didn't we learn anything from 8 years of Bush/Cheney?  I don't care how bad Deeds' campaign has been-- empowering Republicans is just plain dumbass.
That would be more convincing (4.00 / 5)
if Democratic candidates like Deeds seemed to believe it. It's hard to blame voters for not making their decision on this basis when Democratic candidates and their consultants go out of their way to encourage people not to make their decision on this basis.

Support a Pennsylvania Progressive for Governor - Joe Hoeffel
[ Parent ]
Creigh "I would opt-out of PO" Deeds (4.00 / 5)
doesn't really fire me up.

John McCain won't insure children
[ Parent ]
Voted today in Florida! (4.00 / 1)
Well, wasn't much on the ballot. There was a city council seat; the incumbent had previously been elected mayor, so there were two n00bs on the ballot. Didn't really have enough information to make a decision. Decided to go against the news-press endorsement; I agree with that rag about as often as Tom Friedman makes a cogent argument.

There was a proposed city ordinance proposed to create a new elected board to provide some oversight of our shitty police department. Got about 300 mailers fear-mongering about the ACLU and imaginary tax increases. Probably never would have heard about it without the mailers, but methinks the lady doth protest too much.

Conduct your own interview of Sarah Palin!

Just had a thought about CA-10 (0.00 / 0)
this particularly concerns me as I'm a CA resident.

If Lt. Gov. John Garamendi wins in CA-10, as he most likely will (and thank goodness, as he's a liberal who supports Medicare for All), who will succeed him as Lieutenant Governor?  I can't seem to find anything on the succession process for that position.

Lt. Gov. (0.00 / 0)
The gov nominates a replacement.  The nominee needs to be confirmed by the legislature.  I think (but am not sure0 that the nominee needs a majority vote in both houses.

Lots of speculation of what way Arnold will go.  Caretaker?  Someone to give a boost to?  A current candidate for Gov?  Someone the Dems in the legislature can stomach?  Someone they will turn down, buit Arnold gets kudos from the far right?  Etc.  

[ Parent ]
these are the kind... (0.00 / 0)
of numbers that prove just how iffy and undependable it is to try and predict how an electorate might vote in the future by extrapolating past election results.  
True, because of one important constant (4.00 / 3)
Big time Democratic consultants are incapable of sticking with strategies that have worked.  The voters are not all that different from a year ago, but the campaign sure was.

Support a Pennsylvania Progressive for Governor - Joe Hoeffel
[ Parent ]
With numbers like this (0.00 / 0)
We might have had to turn out the entire 2008 coalition at the same number to win...and that would've been a tall order no matter who was running for Governor.

[ Parent ]
It would be easier to appeal to voters (0.00 / 0)
between elections, instead of waiting until there is an election and worrying only about turnout.  There was nothing inevitable about those numbers - which are a product of politics.

Support a Pennsylvania Progressive for Governor - Joe Hoeffel
[ Parent ]
Sure (0.00 / 0)
but looking at these numbers, the best we could've hoped for was a tie. Remember that McDonnell had been the favorite for over a year. A lot of Obama voters voted for McDonnell tonight, there was a big crossover as well as a dropoff.

The numbers weren't inevitable, the result probably was.  

[ Parent ]
especially in an off year election (0.00 / 0)
but to be honest, to see that kind of dropoff in an off year election A.) doesn't surprise me and B.) is actually not all that bad.

What's interesting is this;

Voters, age 18-29, made up more than one in every five voters in 2008 (21%) in Virginia. This year, they made up just 10%. They broke 60%-39% for Obama, but just 51%-47% for Deeds.

Seeing the youth vote cut by half in an off year election doesn't shock me, seeing them skew that much toward the Republican candidate, does. Not only did Deeds not get these people out to vote, he lost the ones who did.  

[ Parent ]
your B) (0.00 / 0)
is really bad. We shouldn't try to sugar coat any of this.
[ Parent ]
Yup. (0.00 / 0)
All that changiness sure warmed the cockles of my heart as I dragged myself to the polls.

Even Tweety and Chinless Chuck seemed to show some signs of realizing that Obama has to activate his base and isn't doing a very good job of it so far.

Though Tweety also said that the netroots should be told to suck it up and stop harshing his Villager mellow.

Obama no longer has a base. (4.00 / 1)
He threw us to the wolves.
Deeds was a Blue Dog.  Once again, events prove that Democrats don't give enough of a damn about the difference between a Blue Dog and a Republican (if any) to bother to vote for the Democrat.  Independents, either.  I share that attitude.  Why should I care what happens to a Blue Dog?  They sure as hell don't care about me.
[ Parent ]
That's probably why his base still overwhelmingly approves of him (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
It's more than a depressed base (0.00 / 0)
The people who came out for Barack Obama and the people Barack Obama targeted in his races ...were not purely base voters.  It was new voters, independent and even Republican voters.

Sure he broke through to black voters after Iowa.  Historically,  while the percentage of blacks who voted for Democrats was always very high, the absolute numbers of black voters who turned out has never been that high.  Without Barack Obama on the ballot those numbers go back to historical turnout numbers.

He went after the bipartisan voters.  He won Iowa because that was th efirst time indepndents were allowed to vote in a Democratic primary.  

Lots of the votes Barack Obama attracted were not committed Democratic voters..Hillary got the base Democratic voter; Barack Obama relied on many new voters.  In places like Texas and California there was a lot of falloff in the down ballot races. Votes for him even in 2008 did not always vote for other Democrats.

And too often the campaign focussed on his personal attributes and charisma and not the Democratic party.  People felt no major commitment to the party or indeed to  their own ongoing commitment to change.  They elected HIM to make change..as if by magic he was going to do it by himself.

I am reminded of gethering petitions this summer in NY. One man walked by. I asked him to sign.  He said in effect  that he had done all that by voting for "his man" last November!!!  Like he never had to participate in public life ever again.

"Incrementalism isn't a different path to the same place, it could be a different path to a different place"
Stoller

Yes (0.00 / 0)
I am reminded of gethering petitions this summer in NY. One man walked by. I asked him to sign.  He said in effect  that he had done all that by voting for "his man" last November!!!  Like he never had to participate in public life ever again.

this is EXACTLY the same attitude I cam across in Maine and New York City recently.

Also, the VA election results seem to show a large number of Obama votes last year voting for McDonnell on top of those who didn't show up at all.

[ Parent ]
Isn't it sad? (4.00 / 1)
Too bad there's nothing we can do about it.  Or is there?
[ Parent ]
Virginia Election Results Thread--McDonnell Wins | 20 comments
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