Maine Election Results Thread #2

by: Adam Bink

Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 01:16

This will be the final update on this thread

Update 48: This'll be the final update for the night. Things are, to put it plainly, looking slim. We are in a deep hole by several points, at close to 90% reporting, and most of the rest of the votes yet to come in are from Yes areas. The yes votes started to report and dragged our totals down.

The campaign will be evaluating the race tomorrow and possibly after the absentee votes come in.

I don't really have much else to say except this one hurts, in my gut, a lot.

Update 47: The No On 1 campaign manager, Jesse Connolly, just went down with us to the ballroom and announced that the race is too close to call and they are still counting. The counting could continue well into the morning. There will be no concession or declaration of victory, it appears, tonight. Things are extremely tight and no news media so far has called the race either.

I'm going to take a step away from my laptop and will probably post a final update before going to bed tonight.

Update 46: I spoke with Kate Knox, the campaign's legal counsel. Here is how the recount procedure works:

  • The campaign has to wait for certification from the Sec of State, which will happen after all absentee ballots come in. In Maine, there is a no-excuse absentee ballot law and she expects there to be a "significant" number of absentees.

  • The certification takes a maximum of 20 days but is almost always done before then. The campaign has to collect 100 signatures and pay a nominal fee (ranging from a few hundred bucks to $10K but more likely to be a few hundred) depending on how close the vote is.

  • The recount is statewide, all or nothing. Not challenging individual precincts.

  • Based on past experience, the recount will take at least a few weeks and likely longer than that.

Update 45: The campaign is now directing staff to call town clerks to get final numbers in and look at our expected numbers there versus what they're reporting. A lot of this leads up to a potential recount if the numbers are way off, but there are still a lot of numbers waiting to come in.

Update 44: Based on what we have and what other news outlets are reporting, now over 60% of precincts are in, including a lot of more rural places, and it's looking like 51-49% against us.

Update 43: After talking with some people here, based on projections from the campaign and looking at the rural numbers starting to trickle in, there is a very, very good chance of a recount, and we're making preparations for that.

Update 42: In Westbrook, a suburb of Portland immediately west, we won 55-45%. It's a big mill town.

Update 41: Let me emphasize for those who are seeing numbers elsewhere- we're at 57% after our more base targets that have nearly all come in- not overall. Overall I can't talk about in detail but they are better for us than 50/50. The rural numbers are starting to come in, though.

Update 40: Places like Brewer went against us, 42-58%- those numbers are starting to come in and pull us down.

Update 39: WMTW-8 TV is reporting 24% of precincts in and deadlocked at 50-50%, 65,452 No, 64,467 Yes. We believe those don't include the Portland absentees yet though, and they lag behind our reporting numbers.

Update 38: TABOR was also on the ballot, and it went down to defeat. Great news.

Update 37: Lull in reporting. For earlier numbers from the night from my first thread, click here.

Update 36: I now have city of Portland absentee numbers: 6,291 No to 1,762 Yes. That's 78%-22% for us. That's freaking incredibly good. That moves the overall city of Portland numbers to 73%-27% for us.

Update 35: We won Auburn 51.5-48.5%! That's part of the Lewiston-Auburn metro area, heavily Catholic. Vastly different than Lewiston which we lost 60-40%.

Update 34: General update- most of our base vote cities/towns are in, and we're at 57% overall in our targets. It's a good number. We're waiting for more rural parts of the state e.g. Region 4 to come in and a little of 3. See my earlier thread for an explanation of the Regions.

Update 33: OVERALL numbers in so far: 57% No, 43% Yes.

Update 32: Won the town of Waterville 54-46%. It's 15 minute north of Augusta.

Update 31: York, ME, one of our base vote places, is 63-37%- very good.

Update 30: We won the town of Gorham, 64-36%, which is great news.

Update 29: Some video from the stage at the party downstairs- Jesse Connolly, Rep. Chellie Pingree, Gov. Baldacci, Maine House Speaker Hannah Pingree, Senate President Libby Mitchell. Go here to view.

Update 28: Final % in from the city of Portland itself, largest city in the state and a heavy base vote area- No 71%, Yes 29%, without absentees.

Update 27: We lost the state capitol of Augusta, 47-53%. Not good.

Update 26: I can't write overall aggregate numbers, but we are doing well. There are 82 precincts in overall, and we are looking at key areas to be able to project.

Update 25: We won the city of South Portland 64-36%!

Adam Bink :: Maine Election Results Thread #2

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Good! (4.00 / 1)
Come on, Maine! NO ON 1!

Yes, Virginia, there are progressives in Nevada.

what percentage do we need to win Portland by? (0.00 / 0)
I presume we need to keep it up above 65% to maintain a margin of NO votes....

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ The Mad Professah Lectures

Where are those overall numbers coming from? (0.00 / 0)
Somebody talk me down. I'm panicking.  

MyDD has different overall numbers (0.00 / 0)
Much closer--almost neck and neck.

What percentage of the total vote was in when you reported overall numbers of 57 No, 43 Yes?

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

Those #'s haven't updated in a while (0.00 / 0)
Maybe Adam knows more....?

John McCain won't insure children

[ Parent ]
Those numbers (0.00 / 0)
Along with the TV numbers, are lagging behind our Portland results, which are through the roof for us, hence why they're closer.

Me on Facebook
Me on Twitter

[ Parent ]
If we're up 57% in the populous areas... (0.00 / 0)
...are there enough total votes in the rural areas for Yes to catch up?  Isn't the vast majority of the electorate in our base areas?

Kalamazoo Ordinance 1856 wins (4.00 / 2)
   With only absentee ballots outstanding, 65 percent of Kalamazoo voters have approved Ordinance 1856 by a vote of 6,463 to 3,527, adding protections for gay and transgender people to the city's nondiscrimination ordinance.  This margin is larger than the number of outstanding absentee ballots that are currently being counted.

   "I am elated with the outcome of the election," says Yes on Ordinance 1856/One Kalamazoo Steering Committee member and local resident Janice Brown.

Who would figure. An Irish Catholic guy from Ohio in the (4.00 / 1)
stands wishing his team 'BiPM' wins.  

"They pour syrup on shit and tell us it's hotcakes." Meteor Blades

Numbers on TPM (0.00 / 0)
Show "Yes" winning 51-49 right now with 28% reporting.. Do you have more complete numbers than that?

nyt (0.00 / 0)
has it:

No   92,090  51.2%  
Yes 87,794 48.8  

Nate Silver says that Cumberland County (most liberal) is overrepresented. He doesn't think things look too good there.

err (4.00 / 1)
NYT now has it tied:
No   112,421  50.0%  
Yes 112,245  50.0    

[ Parent ]
Bangor Daily News (0.00 / 0)
at 11:20pm:

Yes   175990   51.29%
No 167158        48.71%

nyt (0.00 / 0)
Yes  194,087   51.5%  
No 183,011 48.5  

Looks like we lost this one as well...

[ Parent ]
yeah (4.00 / 1)
I had a sinking feeling after being in Maine that we weren't going to succeed. The bigots were still more motivated even though we ran a better more organized campaign.

[ Parent ]
Motivation (4.00 / 2)
Both sides understand the liberals have won in the long run; it is just a matter of time.  The bigots think of themselves as Chosen Ones, the Last Good People.  It is hard to out motivate people like that.

[ Parent ]
i'm not (4.00 / 1)
buying your logic here. But it is a matter of time. I'm just sick that we still have to battle the forces of stupidity irrationality. Especially in the Northeast.

[ Parent ]
However this turns out Adam (4.00 / 4)
Thanks for all the time and personal effort you invested in this. If we do not win today, we will win tomorrow.  

Cumberland is not fully in, (4.00 / 3)
so there's still hope.

devastating (4.00 / 2)
I hope there are lots of uncounted absentee ballots. I don't see much chance of a recount reversing a 51-49 margin.

I agree with Taniel of the Campaign Diaries blog:

Obama's refusal to help the 'no' even in minimal way biggest insult to gay community yet. And he can't say he's just going slow on this one.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

Obama's refusing to help on a lot of things lately... (4.00 / 3)
Public option for example...

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

[ Parent ]
Honestly (4.00 / 2)
the thought that he could've flipped 25,000 voters views on gay marriage is a little absurd.

Turnout wasn't a problem in Maine, the views of the people of Maine were a problem.  

[ Parent ]
Anyone know about BDN's list of unreported precincts? (4.00 / 1)
The BDN web site shows 84% reporting and a 25K deficit for us, but the list of unreported precincts includes very populous areas where we won big, like

# Brunswick Wd 1: 2063 registered voters
# Brunswick Wd 2: 1987 registered voters
# Brunswick Wd 3: 2470 registered voters
# Brunswick Wd 4: 2128 registered voters
# Brunswick Wd 5: 1861 registered voters
# Brunswick Wd 6: 1986 registered voters
# Brunswick Wd 7: 2158 registered voters

# Portland Wd 1 Pr 4: 64 registered voters
# Portland Wd 1 Pr 5: 108 registered voters
# Portland Wd 2 Pr 3: 3466 registered voters
# Portland Wd 3 Pr 3: 4828 registered voters
# Portland Wd 4 Pr 3: 2629 registered voters
# Portland Wd 5 Pr 3: 4516 registered voters

# York: 10358 registered voters

So are those already counted in the BDN totals, or not?

thanks (4.00 / 1)
adam. you did a heck of a job keeping us informed. Keep that chin up for the next battle.


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