| (This thread will no longer update)
New York 23rd Congressional
(528 of 606 precincts reporting)
| Owens (D) |
Scozzafava (R) |
Hoffman (C) |
| 49.1% |
5.5% |
45.4% |
Owens margin: 4,580
Update 13--Republican civil war to get bloodier: While I would much rather have had Corzine, and while I am still nervous about Maine, this win by Owens will cause even more damage in the ongoing Republican civil war. Owens won because he was endorsed by Scozzafava, who was herself torpedoed by most of the Republican establishment. Lots of finger pointing, and no clear result. This is going to get even bloodier.
Update 12--Owens wins: All national networks call it for Owens. With the remaining precincts, and the newly discovered lack of absentee votes, it makes sense. I have to admit, I am very surprised. Owens better fall in line on health care reform immediately.
Update 11: With 79 precincts left to report, 41 are from St. Lawrence (Owens), 14 from Lewis (Hoffman), 4 from Franklin (Owens), 3 from Madison (Hoffman) and 1 from Jefferson (Hoffman). That's 45-18 Owens, with 18 unaccounted for.
Update 10--Less than 10,000 absentees: From xtrarich in the comments:
There were more than 10,000 absentee votes sent out before the election and some 5,800 were returned and must be counted. More absentee ballots, if sent before the deadline, could still be received.
Many of these ballots have already been counted. Less than 2,000 Fort Drum military ballots. That is another good sign for Owens.
Update 9--Military absentees will skew toward Scozzafava: As lord_mike notes in the comments, keep in mind that Scozzafava was still in the race before absentee ballots were sent in. As such, those ballots will not necessarily favor Hoffman.
Update 8--Owens will be ahead after tonight: Owens will be ahead after tonight, even with 4 precincts from St. Lawrence county not likely to report until tomorrow due to voting machine problems. The question is how far ahead he will be before the 10,000 absentees are counted. Right now, his margin is 4,175 votes, which would be enough.
Update 7--Remaining Precincts: There are 91 precincts left to report. This includes 46 St. Lawrence county (Owens), 15 in Lewis (Hoffman), 3 left in Madison (Hoffman), 1 left in Jefferson (Owens), and 3 left to report in Franklin (Owens). There are also about 20-23 from other counties, but their websites are down. That is 50-18 Owens, meaning that it still looks good for him as long as the absentees aren't a landslide.
Update 6--I spoke too soon: Now Hoffman is closing, and perhaps I spoke too soon:
There are more than 10,000 absentee votes to still be counted.
Turnout so far is just under 120,000.
With Fort Drum in the district--the only place in the country where snow-based training for Afghanistan occurs--this is an extremely heavy military district. Those absentees will send this contest into overtime.
Update 5--Now Highly likely Owens will win: This is going to upset a lot of teabaggers, but it is now highly likely that Owens will win. 52 of the remaining 153 precincts are from St Lawrence county, which Obama won by 16%.
Update 4--County level results: You can see the county results here.
Update 3--Albany Project calls it for Owens (with about 70% in): The Albany Project has called it for Owens, based on many of the remaining votes coming from Democratic St Lawrence county.
Update 2 (with about 31% in): It turns out that most of these results are from Clinton county, which is the most Democratic part of the district. Expect Hoffman to close, and possibly take the lead, before long.
Update: For some context, there are three very Democratic counties (as least as far as Presidential voting is concerned) in the northern part of the district, two lean Republican counties in the western part, and a very Republican county in the southern part. I have no idea which of these have reported so far. If these numbers are from the Democratic areas, it probably won't be enough for Owens to win. |
