Dumb Political Decisions: Fall 2009 Edition

by: tremayne

Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 11:31


Creigh Deeds on October 20: I'm against the public option.

Voters on November 3: We're against you.

That's an oversimplification, but not by much. Here's some data:

In the eight October polls taken before Deeds' comments about the public option he trailed Bob McDonnell by 11 points with 8 percent of voters undecided. Deeds' support was at 40.25 percent in those polls

In the 11 polls taken after Deeds' comments he trailed McDonnell by 14.3 with 4.5 percent undecided. Deeds' support was at 40.7 percent in those polls.

On election day, with no more undecided voters, Deeds lost by 17 percent. He won 41.2 percent of voters.

Summary: In the aftermath of Deeds' comments on the public option, his support, even as undecided voters finally decided, never really climbed. Either a lot of Democrats stayed home or the vast majority of undecided voters broke for McDonnell.

There are plenty of Democrats in Virginia these days. President Obama won the state by a margin of more than six percent. Recent Democratic Governors include Tim Kaine and Mark Warner. Both Senators are Democrats. But you have to get them to show up and you have to give them reason to be excited about your campaign. Also, when a policy is very popular and will actually help people in a time of great need, you should probably not oppose that policy. Just a thought.

tremayne :: Dumb Political Decisions: Fall 2009 Edition

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Deeds could have run a perfect campaign (0.00 / 0)
and still would have lost by 6 points.  State-level incumbents and members of incumbent parties in general will have a very rough time of it in 2010.  These guys just don't have the tools to address the macroeconomic issues that plague their states.  

But I agree that the strategy of federal Democratic leaders has not helped.  We've been treated to an already dilatory heath-care reform process in the hopes of wooing GOP legislators who openly flaunt their intransigence as a badge of honor.  

I disagree profoundly with the thinking of Jane Hamsher that extending health-care debate into next year will not hurt us. We need to pound health-care through by any means necessary so that bread-and-butter jobs issues serve as the backdrop to the 2010 campaign season.  


yes (4.00 / 1)
agree on the fact that he was facing an uphill battle. Here's a story showing the party that wins the White House loses the Virginia Governors race the next year....a pattern that goes back 30 years:

http://blog.newsweek.com/blogs...

But VA is bluer than used to be and Deeds could have made it competitive if he made smarter decisions, got young people motivated to show up, etc.

I agree that jobs is key but I would prefer a good health care bill to passing something/anything fast.


[ Parent ]
Don't get me wrong (4.00 / 1)
I'm not for compromising any more than we have already on health care.

I'm just saying that Democratic leadership will have drawn the right conclusions from yesterday's events if they understand that health care legislation needs to represent meaningful reform to the base and get done before the end of the year.  


[ Parent ]
But (0.00 / 0)
health care legislation needs to represent meaningful reform to the base and get done before the end of the year.

As things are at the moment, this is impossible, because the possibilities "on the table" are not remotely like what could represent meaningful reform to the base.

So barring a miracle, it looks like getting the thing done by the end of the year would have to mean foregoing real reform. (Not that I think it looks like there's much of a choice left by now, if the Progressive Block really has caved in and broken its commitment.)

I do agree on the critical need for a jobs initiative next year, which would have to mean a second stimulus. But they already took that off the table.

So if any kind of real jobs bill could possibly happen, it would have to mean a real bottom-up brawl to force these gangsters to do it. But is there going to be the will to demand real reform, and stick to it, this time?

http://attempter.wordpress.com


[ Parent ]
fdl's tribett (0.00 / 0)
What Happened in Virginia?

For those of you following the 2009 elections, I don't have to tell you that Virginia-one year after voting Democratic for President for the first time since 1964-is about to sweep our most conservative Republican ticket in history to victory today. What you might find useful though is why-and how you can prevent something similar from happening in your state in 2010.

http://fdlaction.firedoglake.c...

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