We can sit around and complain that the post-election spin is not properly giving credit to Democratic and progressive victories in the House, in mayoral campaigns, and in many ballot initiatives outside of the painful defeat in Maine. Or, we can realize that in this instance, given the magnitude of the problems facing the country, spin is insignificant compared to the power of the force economic conditions facing the average American.
When you are highly engaged in political news and activism, there is a tendency to overestimate the importance of winning the messaging war. However, there probably isn't a single American who will vote in 2010 based on how well one side or the other messaged after the 2009 elections. The post-election spin is distant, abstract horse pockey compared to the job market, the health care market, the housing market, and other very real economic problems people are facing in their everyday lives.
As Mike wrote this morning, Democratic performance in the 2010 elections will be based on whether Democrats "deliver the goods," aka, the economic improvements they were hired to produce. If economic conditions still suck in 2010, then Democrats are toast no matter what sort of spin or other abstract positioning in which we engage.
We can already see that in the outcome of the elections last night. Democrats were reduced in the two states where they had been in power for eight years during the economic difficulties (New Jersey and Virginia), but were still able to make gains at the federal level (swept the House seats), where they have really only been in charge for one year. The lesson is clear: if you are in power during an economic catastrophe, voters will replace whoever you are with just about anything.
For now, at the federal level at least, voters still blame Republicans. However, that will no longer be the case by 2010. By that point, we will own either the continue economic slump or the ongoing economic recovery. As such, in both political and human terms, it is imperative that there is an substantial improvement in the economic livelihood of average Americans over the next year. To do this, Democrats are not only going to need to make sure that the health care bill contain benefits that will kick in during 2010 (something which Democrats in Congress are increasingly aware of and delivering), but that there can be additional stimulus spending over the next year.
There is no going to be any way to pass a second omnibus stimulus bill. Support simply is not there for it, either in Congress or in the public at large. However, there are two things that can be done (more in the extended entry):
Use the remaining $317 billion of TARP for non-Wall Street related stimulus. To its credit, the Obama administration has not spent any of the second $350 billion of the Wall Street bailout on Wall Street itself. It spent just under $100 billion on homeowners and the auto industry, and $317 billion remains in the account. Even though some of the remaining money comes from financial institutions paying back the easy loans they received, this still means that that Obama administration has not actually spent any of the second, post-Bush $350 billion on Wall Street.
This is money that can, and should, be used for a second stimulus program. Keep finding effective, targeted, non-Wall Street ways to spend this money: grants to states about to cut jobs, loans to small businesses who can't get credit, more assistance for homeowners, more cash for clunkers, etc. It is a huge opportunity that can be used to provide the economy the stimulus it needs, while circumventing a Congress that would never pass a second omnibus stimulus bill.
There are times when spin matters, but this is not one of them. Babbling talking heads on television and pithy columnists online have little, if any, persuasive power compared to the pocketbook. Democrats have to speak to their pocketbooks, and that is done through effective policy, not through effective talking points.
