House will vote on health care reform this weekend

by: Chris Bowers

Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 16:37


The House Committee on Rules has set the mark-up of the House health care reform bill for 2 p.m., this Friday.  Having posted the manager's amendment (aka, final changes to the bill) last night, this means that a vote is likely to take place on Saturday evening.  This is because the Committee on Rules must pass the bill before it goes to the floor, and also because the Speaker had promised 72 hours between posting the final version of the bill and the vote on the bill.

A spokesperson for Speaker Pelosi confirms this likely timeline:

An aide to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said Wednesday that a vote could happen at 6 p.m. on Saturday, a schedule House Rules Committee Chairwoman Louise Slaughter (D-N.Y.) suggested in reports Wednesday afternoon.

"It could happen at 6 p.m. on Saturday, but no final decisions have been made," said Nadeam Elshami, a spokesman for Pelosi.

The only possible way that a vote won't go forward this weekend is if Representative Bart Stupak is able to round-up enough votes to block the bill from going to the floor on the "motion to recommit" vote.  Given that virtually no Republicans will oppose the bill, that Stupak has as many as 30 Democrats backing him, and that a few other Democratic members might oppose the bill for other reasons, it is possible that Stupak could still prevent the vote from taking place this weekend.

However, it is telling that the manager's amendment was posted online only a few hours after the leadership completed a whip question (aka, whip count), on a compromise version of the bill to alleviate the misogynist, mendacious concerns of Stupak's group.  This indicates it is likely the leadership believes it has the votes, and it ready to pass health care reform this weekend.

The Congressional Quad-Caucus (Black Caucus, Hispanic Caucus, Asian Pacific-American Caucus, and Progressive Caucus) sent a letter to Speaker Pelosi asking for improvement to the bill before it is passed by the House. However, it is unlikely there will be a chance for them to address their concerns via floor amendments, given that the Committee on Rules has not given a deadline for members to submit amendments.  This means there will not be any amendments offered to the bill on the floor--no single-payer, no strengthening amendments of any kind--expect a single, Republican substitute amendment for the entire bill.  That substitute amendment will be handily defeated.

This is a broken promise from the leadership, which had originally agreed to allow a single-payer substitute amendment. However, Stupak unfortunately left them with no choice.  If members had been allowed to submit amendments, then Stupak's amendment would probably have passed through the Rule Committee, probably passed on the floor, and then probably have defeated the entire bill because it would have caused dozens of pro-choice votes to defect.  So, in the end, the floor vote on single-payer was another casualty in Bart Stupak's war on reproductive rights.

Chris Bowers :: House will vote on health care reform this weekend

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Pelosi has two more votes.... (0.00 / 0)
...with the victories in CA and NY yesterday, and I'm sure that Owens will vote yes since his victory is almost completely the result of the work of the DCCC.  

The single payer vote would be interesting, but it would be nothing more than posturing...  it wouldn't pass, so what's the point of the Kabukhi other than liberal members to get a show vote?


REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!


How quickly will they be sworn in? (0.00 / 0)
Saturday is pretty quick to get each state's secretary of state to certify the election.  Maybe the whip count made waiting for these two unnecessary.

John McCain won't insure children

[ Parent ]
Last night there was a lot of discussion about it... (4.00 / 1)
....the consensus was that they will be both sworn in on Thursday.

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!


[ Parent ]
Since Hoffman and Harman conceded defeat (4.00 / 1)
they could certify the election in a matter of hours. I dunno if they will though.  

[ Parent ]
Harmer (0.00 / 0)
David Harmer was the losing Republican.  

[ Parent ]
The point of the single payer amendment is to get the entire House on the record regarding single payer, (4.00 / 1)
so advocates for single payer can do... something... with that information.  I know the information is valuable to them in some way or other, and they had to really push to get the vote, because the on-the-fence members in and around the New Dems really do not want to take a vote on single payer (a yes vote pisses off their donors, a no vote pisses off their base, all for an amendment that won't pass... very annoying if you're a politician).

Honestly though, I'm not clear on exactly what the roll call is good for.  Pressuring people?  Provoking primaries?  Directing donations?  I don't know what the single payer advocates would do to those who vote against the amendment.


[ Parent ]
I'd say the Kucinich Amendment (4.00 / 2)
is way more important to the cause than the Weiner Amendment. Aside from the former's substantive significance, the latter can be gamed - people who need progressive cred can vote for it with full knowledge it won't pass. Members of the leadership who have opposed it with their considerable power can look like they support it with a throwaway vote.  

Seems like trading symbolism for substance.

Support a Pennsylvania Progressive for Governor - Joe Hoeffel


[ Parent ]
That's it (0.00 / 0)
Honestly though, I'm not clear on exactly what the roll call is good for.  Pressuring people?  Provoking primaries?  Directing donations?  I don't know what the single payer advocates would do to those who vote against the amendment.

That's precisely the value of the vote - it forces members of Congress to take a stand, so we know who's for it, who's against it, and who was too busy and/or timid to be absent or abstain.

If we're ever going to get to Medicare for All we have to add supporters of it to the ranks of Congress, member by member, until we get to 218.  It'll be a lot easier that way than what we saw this year with the public option, where had to ask, push, scratch and claw for every vote.

If the Weiner Amendment gets a vote, there will be four categories Representatives will fall under:

1. Those who genuinely support it and vote for it.  Those people are obviously on our side.

2. Those who don't actually support it but vote for it anyway to cover their liberal flank, as David Kalb suggested.  While it'll be hard to weed out these people from the true believers, at least these fake single payer supporters can be held accountable if they turn on it later when it does have a chance of passing.

3. Those who genuinely oppose it and vote against it.

4. Those who really support it but vote against it, or not at all, because their constituents would not support it.  I'm not sure how many of these cases there actually are, but these Representatives would probably not be helpful unless their constituency somehow changes (e.g. their district is redrawn, or they get elected to the Senate).  However, if they could (maybe quietly) let the liberal community know that they support single payer but face political restrictions, we can help them find ways out of that problem.

Anyway, once we have this information we can

1. Funnel donations and defend the Representatives in category 1.

2. Target those in category 3 for defeat and replacement in primary or general elections.

3. Elect those in category 4 to more liberal constituencies, e.g. a statewide Senate seat as opposed to a conservative House district.

4. Later, when single payer really does have a chance, hold those in category 2 responsible for their previous votes, and target them for defeat if they don't follow through.

But a lot of this depends on having the information necessary to figure out who is where.  As that old saying goes, knowledge is power!


[ Parent ]
I think that's the point (4.00 / 2)
It's not worth risking the passage of Stupak's amendment for just a political show.  

[ Parent ]
That's not the only amendment though (4.00 / 1)
there's also the Kucinich amendment, which could very well pass, if its committee vote was of any indication.

And the Grijalva Medicare +5 amendment could get passed too, if enough pressuring is done.


[ Parent ]
Neither of which will matter (4.00 / 2)
if Stupak's amendment passes and kills the entire thing.  

[ Parent ]
But without those 2 amendments (0.00 / 0)
it should be killed.



http://attempter.wordpress.com


[ Parent ]
Request for help (4.00 / 1)
Chris, could you keep us posted next year, when primaries get started, if anyone viable is running in the primary against Stupak? That goes for all the congressmen who endorsed his amendment, too.

Yeah that's a good idea (4.00 / 1)
though I don't see why viable primary campaigns can't get started now.  In fact, they probably should, if they haven't already, as it's getting close to 2010.

[ Parent ]
I can't believe this whole thing could be jeopardized by abortion (4.00 / 1)
Is a majority of the House really that pro-life?  I always thought a majority of the country was pro-choice.  Not very democratic, is it?

Motion to recommit - let´s get it straight (4.00 / 1)
I'm puzzled that Bowers hasn't got a handle on this pretty basic bit of procedure yet (I've mentioned before):

We're dealing with two different technicalities: what Stupak and friends are currently threatening is to vote against the rule.

The Rules Committee meets on Friday not to mark up the bill but to report out the rule under which the bill will be taken to the floor.

The rule governs the procedure used in relation to the bill - which amendments (if any) will be in order, for example. And whether a motion to recommit is to be allowed, and whether it may be with instructions.

On the floor, the rule will be voted on first; if it's defeated, the bill can't be moved - until another rule is passed, if one is.

There could easily be a large enough bunch of Stupaks and disgruntled Progs voting against the rule kill it to defeat it.

If the rule passes, the next vulnerability is the motion to recommit; as the minority, the GOP has dibs, but, clearly. abortion is the best route to kill the bill, so they'd do best to offer a Stupak-friendly amendment.

(If an MTR is permitted, it may be allowed to be with or without instructions. A motion without instructions is useless; if a motion with instructions is passed, the amendment attached is deemed to be made to the bill.)

Because renegade Progs obviously won't vote for an abortion amendment, the best chance of defeating the bill will be the vote on the rule.

So that, presumably, is where the action is.

Over to Chris...  


Your Stupak BLAME is fucking pathetic. YOU have (0.00 / 1)
swallowed the conventional pathetic d.c. "wisdom" whereby, once again,

boo hoo snivel whine ... some
boo hoo snivel whine ... mean
boo hoo snivel whine ... meanie
boo hoo snivel snuffle... was LIKE REALLY REALLY NOT COOL

and tens of millions are getting fucked by the rich pigs, who are blaming this cross carrying asshole!

meanwhile

Clinton's tax surplus is destroyed before the twin towers fall ...oops!
the financial regulatory system is gutted by phil gram ... ooops!
ronnie rayguns horrible budget passes with bipartisan tip! ...ooops!

I mean the health care overhaul turns into a fucking joke, except for the Democratic consultants, accountants, lawyers, health care bureaucrats ... who'll be employed fiddling around with this 1900 page nightmare!

Since it is time to whip us drooling stooges into a frenzy over this piece of shit legislation, what better boogy man is there than a flat earth fundie asshole?

We sure as hell can't have any fed-up-ed-ness directed at the f'king 300 DC dems who are shitting in their diapers and getting their asses kicked, AGAIN, by the fascists!

blame stupak is fucking pathetic.

rmm.


It is too full o' the milk of human kindness To catch the nearest way


I probably wouldn't have used the same words... (0.00 / 0)
But I agree calling Stupak misogynist and mendacious is not helpful. We all know why he feels the way he does. At least he didn't sell out his constituents for $$$ like dozens of self-described progressive Democrats did.

[ Parent ]
can I get my 10 bucks back chris? I PAY for (0.00 / 0)
conventional wisdom ... ???

then I get zeroed for calling you on it?

drop the zero, or, refund the 10. face it, you're just lining up to line up behind this piece of shit legislation, and the goddam excuse of no amendments or the holy roller will roll out is just MORE of the same ol shit excuses we the peee-ons been getting since the Dim-O-Sellouts allowed Raygun to declare himself sun king.

rmm.


It is too full o' the milk of human kindness To catch the nearest way


[ Parent ]
I'm sorry (4.00 / 1)
I didn't realize your 10 bucks entitled you to swear at me forever. Was that in the contract?

Can I show up at your house and swear at you? Would that be fair?


[ Parent ]
Progressive Block of the rule (0.00 / 0)
Is it not possible for the Rules Committee send a rule to the floor that allows the CPC Medicare+5 amendment, but not the Stupak amendment?

Unlike Stupak, doesn't Grijalva have enough votes in the quad-caucus to defeat any rule he doesn't like?  

If we defeated the rule, I can't believe that would kill HCR in the House once and for all. Would leadership really allow HCR to die without the legislation ever getting a vote? Wouldn't Rules have to come back with a different rule?

That is, isn't it a must-pass vote?

That is, isn't this the perfect situation for a Progressive Block? Especially since it wouldn't literally be a vote against the HCR bill, and wouldn't be fatal to the HCR effort, while still being a significant threat to it?


Which Democrats have actually said (0.00 / 0)
They would change to a no vote if Stupak's amendment is voted on and passed?  How many people here would change their support if given a forced choice of an amended bill or no bill at all?

Things You Don't Talk About in Polite Company: Religion, Politics, the Occasional Intersection of Both

can't the leadership decide which amendments will be allowed to get a vote? (0.00 / 0)
is this allowed or not in the house?

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