The complete exit polls for the 2009 elections in New Jersey and Virginia are now available. Compared to the 2006 and 2008 exit polls for those states, the percentage of the electorate under the age of 45 is most striking:
Percentage of New Jersey Electorate Under 45, 2006-2009
About two-thirds of Christie's victory margin can be accounted for by this shift in the age of the electorate. While Deeds still would have been wiped out even with the 2008 age composition of the electorate, the change there is no less striking:
Precentage of Virginia Electorate Under 45, 2006-2009
In Virginia, Democrats went from a 39-33 advantage in party ID, to a 33-37 deficit. In New Jersey, Democrats went from a 44-28 advantage, to a 41-31 advantage.
On the day before the election, I posted numbers indicating that Republicans had made a national gain of about 2-3% nationally since last year. However, that gain does not taken into account the difference in turnout from 2008 to 2009 (and 2010). On that front, Republicans seem to have gained another 3-4%, simply from turnout differential based on age.
When it comes to maintaining their 2008 majorities, the lack turnout among voters under the age of 45 threatens to cost Democrats more votes than any other factor. This isn't surprising, given that younger voters have been hit hardest by the recession, and that they tend to not turnout in off-year elections. Still, if Democrats could return the electorate to its 2008 age, they would be in excellent shape next year.
And yet, you won't hear any Villagers or Blue Dogs talk about how Democrats need to excite young voters again. Funny, that. It's almost as if they don't actually want Democrats to win next year, and aren't giving their advice in good faith.
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