| Ten Second Summary
We can see a progressive feedback loop resulting from the Voting Rights Act, which led to an increase in voting by Native Americans in Arizona among other places, without which Janet Napolitano likely would not have won the governorship. This feedback loop has generated a secondary feedback loop, in that as the power of Native American votes in close elections has become clear, voter turnout has continued to increase.
Low Turnout Historically
Although all Native Americans gained US citizenship in 1924, legal barriers to voting remained for decades. In New Mexico, Native Americans won the right to vote in 1948, but still were mostly barred from voting by literacy tests that weren't banned until the passage of the Voting Rights Act in 1965. Subsequent amendments mandated language assistance at the polls in many Native American communities, and specifically in Apache County. (In 2000, 58% of people in Apache County spoke Navajo, and 40% of those Navajo speakers spoke English less than 'very well.')
Even after legal barriers were dropped, cultural barriers remained. From the Native Vote 2004 report:
There was, and with some still remains, the fear that "registration" of any kind with a non-Indian government could have only negative consequences. It was also axiomatic within Indian Country that to participate in the election of non-Indian government officials
served only to undermine their own true sovereignty. Finally, and perhaps most importantly within the context of this report, historically, Native Americans simply felt that their voice wouldn't matter.
The report goes on to detail turnout in Native American communities around the country in 2004.
More Turnout Data
We can get a bit of a historical perspective by looking at a few more counties with large Native American populations. For comparison, the crude turnout nationwide was 42% in 2008.
  
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There's no clear trends in turnout in these counties, unlike in Apache County, although there's a tendency for greater turnout in most recent elections. We also can see that there's a general tendency for greater Democratic support over time.
It would be a mistake to assume any increase in turnout is necessarily linked to interest in state or federal politics - the dramatic increase in turnout in Shannon County in 2004, for instance, may be related to the race for president of Oglala Sioux Tribe, in which Cecelia Fire Thunder defeated American Indian Movement activist Russell Means to become the first woman to hold the position of president.
Barack Black Eagle
On the other hand, we do have some data to see what happens when a national politician takes a local interest in a Native American community. Back in the primaries, Obama visited and was adopted with enthusiasm into the Apsáalooke (Crow) Nation in Montana.
Here's the historical data for turnout and vote in Big Horn County, Montana, which was about 60% Native American in 2000:
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There is a clear increase in both support for the Democrat and turnout in 2008 compared to 2004. There was a 60% increase in the number of votes for the Democrat; this compared to a 20% increase for the state of Montana overall. In precincts on the Crow Reservation, turnout increased by about 20-50% over 2004, the number of Democratic presidential votes increased by up to 85%, and the number of Republican votes decreased by 20-60%.
So Obama's visit clearly paid political dividends. This was not limited to Big Horn County. There was a strong increase in support for Obama in counties with large Native American populations in Montana, North Dakota, and New Mexico. Smaller changes were generally seen elsewhere, with slight decreases in some heavily Native American counties in South Dakota, and in Arizona and Oklahoma. But as Sherman Alexie put it, "I guess that's the puzzling and I suppose lovely thing about Indians' love of Obama. Many have suspended their natural suspicion of politicians for him."
The National Picture
But here we return to a theme: We are not all of us alike. Although support for Obama was strong in the Native American community, it was not uniform (see note below for methods):
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(A note about names. I looked at community websites to try to determine the preferred name of each community, and list it first, with other names in parentheses, when there was space. Please let me know if I've made a mistake.)
Native American communities in Arizona, McCain's home, were not as supportive of Obama, although still strongly supportive. What really stands out is the much lower support among Native Americans in the South. There doesn't appear to be much relationship between the importance of gambling to a community's economy and voting behavior.
Overall, about 3/4 of those who listed a tribe on the 2000 census listed one shown above. If we weight by population, we come up with nationwide support for Obama of about 70%. Note that this estimate assumes that somebody who is Navajo but lives in Los Angeles is just as likely to vote for Obama as somebody who lives in the Navajo Nation - an assumption that is not necessarily true.
Note on methods: The estimates above were derived by taking elections results for jurisdictions with more than 85% Native Americans in the 2000 census and calculating a maximum and minimum possible support among Native Americans. For instance, suppose a town voted for 60% for Obama, and was 90% Native American according to the 2000 census. If all non-Native Americans voted for Obama, that means support among Native Americans was 56% (the minimum) but if none of the non-Native Americans voted for Obama, it would be 67% (the maximum). There are four exceptions: the Nimi'ipuu (only 81% Native American), Mission and Colville (regressions used instead) and Cherokee (estimate from regressions and exit poll data). Note also that the census may undercount Native Americans.
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This diary is the sixth in a series taking a close look at the 2008 electorate and exploring three themes: diversity within demographics, progressive feedback loops, and demographic change.
Previous diaries:
Looking Back
Alternate History
Why Republicans Should Be Really Scared
African-Americans - We Are Not All of Us Alike
East and South Asian Americans - Diverse and Growing
West Asian Americans - Rapid Change
Tomorrow: The Islander Electorate: In Need of Representation
Cross posted at DailyKos. |
