Virginia Poll Of Obama Non-Voters For Deeds Shows Cost of Running Away From Change

by: Paul Rosenberg

Sun Nov 08, 2009 at 08:30


Another example showing that Versailles conventional wisdom is crap. And that Dems face real problems if they further weaken health care reform, rather than strengthen it.  Something to help strengthen our resolve in fighting back against the Dems who voted against us last night.  We're going to need a lot more polling like this next year.

From the Progressive Change Campaign Committee:

Here's a summary of our poll of 800 Virginia Democrats and Independents who voted for Obama in 2008 but didn't turn out for gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds in 2009:
    Creigh Deeds seen as "not progressive enough" by huge margin. 64% of Democratic Obama voters and 58% of Independent Obama voters said Deeds was "not progressive enough" compared to only 8% of Democrats and 16% of Independent Obama voters who said he was "too far to the left."

    Obama's voters want the public option. 88% of Democratic Obama voters and 80% of Independent Obama voters favor a public health insurance option to compete with private insurance plans. 93% of those polled said health care is "very" or "somewhat" important when they vote.

    Creigh Deeds hurt by opposition to public option. When asked, "Before the election for Governor, Democratic candidate Creigh Deeds said he would side with conservatives and push for Virginia to 'opt out' of the public insurance plan. Did this make you more excited or less excited to vote in this year's election, or did it have no impact?" 41% of those polled said it made them less excited, only 6% said it made them more excited (7 to 1).

    Without a public option, Obama voters will continue to drop off in 2010. 43% of Democratic and Independent Obama voters said they are less likely to vote at all in the 2010 general election if Congress does not pass a public option as part of health care reform, compared to only 8% who are more likely to vote. If they do vote, by 46% to 6%, they will be less likely to vote for a Democratic candidate if Democrats do not pass a public option.

Details on the flip.

Paul Rosenberg :: Virginia Poll Of Obama Non-Voters For Deeds Shows Cost of Running Away From Change
QUESTION: Would you say the 2009 Democratic candidate for Governor, Creigh Deeds, is too far to the left or not progressive enough?
NOT PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TOO FAR LEFT NEITHER
ALL 61% 12% 27%
Men 59% 13% 28%
Women 63% 11% 26%
DEMOCRATS 64% 8% 28%
INDEPENDENTS 58% 16% 26%
White 60% 14% 26%
Black 63% 9% 28%
Hispanic 61% 11% 28%
Other 62% 10% 28%
18-29 64% 8% 28%
30-44 63% 10% 27%
45-59 60% 13% 27%
60+ 58% 16% 26%
Nova 63% 11% 26%
REST 59% 13% 28%
QUESTION: Would you favor or oppose the government offering everyone a government administered health insurance plan -- something like the Medicare coverage that people 65 and older get -- that would compete with private health insurance plans? (Wording of NYT poll)
FAVOR OPPOSE NOT SURE
ALL 84% 7% 9%
Men 82% 10% 8%
Women 86% 4% 10%
DEMOCRATS 88% 5% 7%
INDEPENDENTS 80% 9% 11%
White 83% 8% 9%
Black 86% 5% 9%
Hispanic 84% 6% 10%
Other 85% 6% 9%
18-29 88% 4% 8%
30-44 87% 5% 8%
45-59 83% 8% 9%
60+ 80% 10% 10%
Nova 86% 6% 8%
REST 82% 8% 10%
QUESTION: Is the issue of health care very important, somewhat important, or not important when you vote?
VERY SOME NOT
ALL 48% 45% 7%
Men 46% 46% 8%
Women 50% 44% 6%
DEMOCRATS 52% 43% 5%
INDEPENDENTS 44% 47% 9%
White 47% 46% 7%
Black 50% 42% 8%
Hispanic 48% 43% 9%
Other 49% 43% 8%
18-29 50% 44% 6%
30-44 49% 44% 7%
45-59 47% 46% 7%
60+ 45% 46% 9%
Nova 51% 43% 6%
REST 45% 47% 8%
QUESTION: If Congress does not pass a public health insurance option as part of health care reform, will that make you more likely or less likely to vote for Democrats in the 2010 general election or would it have no real effect on your vote?
MORE LESS NO EFFECT
ALL 6% 46% 48%
Men 7% 44% 49%
Women 5% 48% 47%
DEMOCRATS 5% 49% 46%
INDEPENDENTS 7% 43% 50%
White 6% 45% 49%
Black 4% 49% 47%
Hispanic 5% 47% 48%
Other 5% 48% 47%
18-29 4% 49% 47%
30-44 5% 48% 47%
45-59 7% 44% 49%
60+ 7% 44% 49%
Nova 4% 50% 46%
REST 8% 42% 50%
QUESTION: If Congress does not pass a public option as part of health care reform, will that make you more likely or less likely to vote in the 2010 general election, or no effect?
MORE LESS NO EFFECT
ALL 8% 43% 49%
Men 9% 41% 50%
Women 7% 45% 48%
DEMOCRATS 7% 46% 47%
INDEPENDENTS 9% 40% 51%
White 8% 42% 50%
Black 5% 48% 47%
Hispanic 7% 44% 49%
Other 7% 45% 48%
18-29 6% 47% 47%
30-44 7% 44% 49%
45-59 9% 41% 50%
60+ 8% 41% 51%
Nova 7% 44% 49%
REST 9% 42% 49%
QUESTION: As you may have heard, one proposal in Congress is to pass the public health insurance option, but offer states the opportunity to "opt out" of it. Before the election for Governor, Democratic candidate Creigh Deeds said he would side with conservatives and push for Virginia to "opt out" of the public insurance plan. Did this make you more excited or less excited to vote in this year's election, or did it have no impact?
MORE LESS NO IMPACT
ALL 6% 41% 53%
Men 6% 40% 54%
Women 6% 42% 52%
DEMOCRATS 4% 45% 51%
INDEPENDENTS 8% 37% 55%
White 6% 40% 54%
Black 3% 45% 52%
Hispanic 5% 43% 52%
Other 4% 43% 53%
18-29 4% 45% 51%
30-44 5% 43% 52%
45-59 7% 39% 54%
60+ 6% 40% 54%
Nova 5% 42% 53%
REST 7% 40% 53%
SAMPLE FIGURES
Men 351 44%
Women 449 56%
White 495 62%
Black 249 31%
Hispanic 33 4%
Other 23 3%
18-29 121 15%
30-44 223 28%
45-59 265 33%
60+ 191 24%
Nova 417 52%
Rest 383 48%

It's hard to imagine a poll more directly countering the Versailles narrative, or more directly confirming what the netroots have been saying. I'll have a diary up later with some targeting information to help us begin strategizing for 2010.

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Virginia Poll Of Obama Non-Voters For Deeds Shows Cost of Running Away From Change | 16 comments
Why is right-wing thought so seductive? (4.00 / 2)

  It's pretty amazing when you think about it. We've been buried in an avalanche of right-wing policy for the last quarter-century or so, and it's been a spectacular failure at every level, leading us to an economic collapse unseen since Hoover. The experience of the last eight years, in particular, should have nailed the coffin shut on any appeal that conservatism should have among political leaders who have at least some Democratic sensibilities. I mean, there must be a reason Creigh Deeds isn't a Republican, no?

  And yet politicians like Deeds (and, yes, Obama and many others) all seem to automatically revert to a right-wing mindset by default. Obama has weakened all of his policy proposals to appease the right, and he's done so without protest -- he's never fought to move ANY policy proposal in a progressive direction. He insists on keeping Summers and Geithner as close advisers, while ignoring Krugman and Stiglitz. And Obama's supposed to be a Democrat.

  What is it about right-wing thinking that even putative centrists (and even some progressives) can't resist, even after decades of empirical evidence that it doesn't work?

 

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn

It's Not The Thought (4.00 / 2)
Not the rightwing thought, anyway.

It's the ideology of bipartisanship, which says that one can't simply reject rightwing ideology because it's a total failure.

If the Founding Fathers had felt that way, we'd still be ruled by a king.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
But there's a difference... (4.00 / 1)

 ...between politely listening, and flat-out embracing.

 The former gives you the appearance of bipartisanship, which Obama obviously thinks is the Most Important Thing In The World. And I can see the political utility of that.

 But Obama (and others) have taken it to the latter step, which is where we run into real problems. And THAT'S what I don't get. Don't these people have brains?  

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn

[ Parent ]
Brains, Yes. Critical Consciousness? Not So Much. (4.00 / 6)
Obama has (presumably) critical thinking skills.  He grew up at a time when teaching such skills was a big thing.  Occidental College is certainly a place where such skills are valued.

But having the skills (which one can show off, like doing card tricks or juggling) and being a critical thinker are two different things. And Obama is symbolic of entire class of people who may or may not have the skills, but who look on those who actual are critical thinkers as some sort of biological curiosity, like flying mammal or a talking bird--if not, in fact, something inherently more dangerous, like a toad that squirts poison.

They certainly would never dream of actually being such a creature.  They wouldn't even dream of having one as a pet.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
Because it's selfish. (4.00 / 7)
At the very bottom, rightwing thought is based on "every man for himself and devil take the hindmost."

The immature mind cannot imagine it will ever be the hindmost.

Montani semper liberi

[ Parent ]
I don't think it is seductive (4.00 / 1)
it is just that those are the candidates that get the money from corporate America.

Maybe progressives need to start being skeptical of well funded candidates.  That appears to be what happened with the New York Mayoral election.

My blog  

[ Parent ]
The Right is bolder and less passive. Period. (4.00 / 1)
The 2 Republican Governor 'victories' overall were solely due to two poor Democratic candidates.  Even our bad, however, didn't give the Right that big of a win.  But let 'em pretend it is.

Bold Dems like Howard Dean and Russ Feingold were so scary to many old school party members already so cowed and fearful  by their PAC dependencies and Emanuel and Schumers' use of 'red state' fearmongerong, they felt they had to show their donors they were good little soldiers not out to buck the old system. They feared their campaign chests would dwindle. Just the opposite occurred.

When I first got involved with my local Arizona Democratic party they thought Dean was too 'outspoken'. Once Dean brought them several new Democratic Congressmen they saw the light.
When I ran a blog briefly for Russ Feingold for Prez, during his oututspoken views against the Patriot Act,I was stunned at how many peole from Idaho, Texas and the South came out in support of him.  Their comments all said they may not agree with him on everything, but admired his courage and wanted that in a President more than anything..
Dems always talk a good show, but chronically cave in and lose all courage.

Obama once boldy walked into Idaho. Now look at how he too has the whole party cowering..
They're protecting the rights of Bart-friggin-Stupak over the rights of American women, for fuck's sake!!  

Nationalism is not the same thing as terrorism, and an adversary is not the same thing as an enemy.

[ Parent ]
Conservative thought has been the dominant ideology for the last thirty years (4.00 / 1)
That kind of stuff doesn't go away easily.  Especially when liberals are not offering a strong pro-government ideological argument of their own.

I thought Barack Obama wasn't as much crippled by this conservative domination as most, but alas, it seems that he is.

[ Parent ]
On a related note... (4.00 / 8)

 I'm sure everyone here remembers how James Carville called for Howard Dean's replacement as DNC Chair after the Democrats' massive victories in the 2006 midterms. In a stunning spasm of WTF, he termed Dean's leadership "Rumsfeldian". Good thing the Democrats didn't win 400 seats that year; Carville would have called for the DNC headquarters to be nuked.

 But funny how the current DNC Chair, who just happens to be the sitting governor of the state where the Democrats just endured a crushing defeat for the office he's vacating, seems to have escaped all criticism from the same quarters who were calling for Dean's head three years ago.

 Our leaders are dyed-in-the-wool losers. The love to lose; they embrace it and wallow in it. It's how they validate themselves. So the question is, how do we get Democrats who want to WIN in positions of party leadership? We did it with Dean, but he's gone now, and it's back to the same old same old...

 

"We judge ourselves by our ideals; others by their actions. It is a great convenience." -- Howard Zinn

Hire More Like Alan Grayson... (4.00 / 2)
Also, it's the DC culture which includes money if you vote for corporate interests. With Dems as whipping boys and girls and loveable losers. As long as Dem voters keep voting Blue Dogs in, and corporate Dems, the system works. Vote these Dems out, and watch the system fail. We hope. 8-)
[ Parent ]
Anyone see Grayson speaking last night?? (0.00 / 0)
I anxiously hoped to hear him.  Was he prevented by the 'leadership'??

Nationalism is not the same thing as terrorism, and an adversary is not the same thing as an enemy.
[ Parent ]
Do even the netroots really care about this? (4.00 / 1)
It looks like everyone caved in completely. As someone who always thought a harshly regressive bill was worse than none, on grounds of both policy substance and politics, and who still believe that and would still vote against it "from the Left", I feel like a very lonely person right about now.

(In some of the other comment threads it looked like there was debate over whether even Kucinich should be primaried for actually having both policy principles and political sense, instead of treading the mean, wretched path of suicidal conformity that Democrats are evidently doomed to tread to the end.)

Sorry, I'm at a loss for the moment. I do know I'm ashamed I was ever gullible enough to capitalize the p and b in "progressive block".

http://attempter.wordpress.com

I Sympathize, But (4.00 / 7)
It does help to read the right sorts of history.  You and I are but citizens, and this lowly estate has enabled us to maintain a degree of sanity that is quite difficult to hold onto in the halls of Congress over a period of time like the past 15 years.  For a helpful historical reference point, I would suggest reading about John Quincy Adams' post-presidential career in the House as the lone overt crusader against slavery.  The lesson is simple: change comes from below, not above, and those in high government are the most easily cowed.  They may still be fairly decent people on an individual basis, but as an institution, they inhibit the best and bring out the worst in one another.

That's what 15 years of forced accommodation to rightwing power will do to you.  Even when the power is gone in reality, it lives on in your own mind.  Particularly if everyone around you is repeatedly claiming that it's still there.  Which is why the Progressive Block doesn't yet know how to really function.  It is struggling to break deeply entrenched habits.  This is not an easy task, no matter how simple it seems from the outside.  (I certainly think it's simple.  But I also know how hard it can be to break bad habits.)

So, while I certainly share your sense of frustration, I urge you not to give up.  As I said, read some history of dark times in the past.  There are ways forward.  Things have been much bleaker in the past.  And even some of most unenlightened people have gone through remarkable transformations.

"You know what they say -- those of us who fail history... doomed to repeat it in summer school." -- Buffy The Vampire Slayer, Season 6, Episode 3

[ Parent ]
hey, democratic candidates: (4.00 / 1)
wanna keep winning elections?

say what this guy says, and do what this guy does:


Food for thought, even if it turns out to be the usual thin gruel (4.00 / 4)
Meanwhile, both parties have their own delusions, not the least of which is the Republicans' conviction that Tuesday was a referendum on what Obama has done so far. If anything, it was a judgment on just how much he has not.

This is the closing sentence of Frank Rich's op-ed yesterday in the Times, The Night They Drove the Tea Partiers Down. He'll get credit for the idea, no doubt, although like so many other gasbags, he's awfully late to the party.

Better late than never, I suppose. And now that the health care sausage-making is done in the House, with results anyone not immersed in it could have predicted, and the Senate is poised to follow suit, the long slide toward a real reckoning continues more or less unabated. (Yes, Virginia, the or less part is a tribute to the vigor of Wall Street's efforts, aided and abetted by the White House and the Fed, to conceal the terminal weakness of our verkakte financial system.)

We must continue on another path, as Adam urges us to do in a previous diary today. I'm glad that folks like Rich are beginning to speak up about what anyone without bells on his cap ought to be able to see. I'm sure it'll help, but for us he remains as much an irrelevance today as he was the-day-before-yesterday. The people who are actually making the future, whatever it turns out to be, are no longer guided by what goes on in Washington or New York, nor should they be.

re: public option (0.00 / 0)
Without a public option, Obama voters will continue to drop off in 2010. 43% of Democratic and Independent Obama voters said they are less likely to vote at all in the 2010 general election if Congress does not pass a public option as part of health care reform, compared to only 8% who are more likely to vote. If they do vote, by 46% to 6%, they will be less likely to vote for a Democratic candidate if Democrats do not pass a public option.

I hope this sinks in on all the dems...

Virginia Poll Of Obama Non-Voters For Deeds Shows Cost of Running Away From Change | 16 comments
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