Olympia Snowe will join Democratic Senate caucus in, at the most, 945 days

by: Chris Bowers

Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 14:45


At the absolute latest, Maine Senator Olympia Snowe will join the Senate Democratic caucus by Tuesday, June 12, 2012.  She may not actually register as a Democrat, but she will start caucusing with Democrats by that date--or even earlier.  Here is why:

  1. Snowe is up for re-election in 2012.

  2. The Maine primary is held on the second Tuesday in June.  So, in 2012, this means June 12th.

  3. Snowe is losing to a generic conservative primary challenger 59%-31%, among likely Republican voters.

  4. Maine has a closed primary system, meaning that only registered Republicans can vote in Maine Republican primaries.  Same day registration is allowed, but that won't change the outcome in such a lopsided campaign.

  5. It is a rock-solid guarantee that conservatives will primary Snowe from the right in 2012.  Not only is she pro-choice, but her lifetime Progressive Punch score on critical votes is identical to Arlen Specter's (27%).  If they are not going to primary challenge Snowe, they are not going to primary challenge anyone.  And we all know they will keep running primary challenges.

  6. In 2012, all major Republican Presidential candidates will endorse Snowe's inevitable primary challenger.  This is both because that challenger will comfortably lead Snowe in the primary, but also based on the pattern we just witnessed in NY-23.  It didn't take long for all leading Republicans to fall into Hoffman's camp once he proved more viable, and more popular among the Republican base, than the moderate Scozzafava.

    Republican Presidential candidates looking to appease the base will make sure that he entire Republican establishment lines up behind Snowe's primary challenger.

  7. In the past, Harry Reid has approached Olympia Snowe about joining the Senate Democratic caucus.  He confirmed this to me over the phone more than three years ago, right after the 2006 elections.

  8. Without establishment support in her own party, trailing badly in the polls, and with an offer to join the Democratic caucus, Snowe will bolt the Republican Party and join the Democratic Senate caucus by June 12th, 2012, at the very latest.
So, sometime in the next 945 days, Senate Democrats will pick up another seat.

Might be a time to start preparing a primary challenger to Olympia Snowe of our own in 2012.
Chris Bowers :: Olympia Snowe will join Democratic Senate caucus in, at the most, 945 days

Tags: , , , , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email
Olympia Snowe will join Democratic Senate caucus in, at the most, 945 days | 34 comments
I love it! (0.00 / 0)
>"Might be a time to start preparing a primary challenger to Olympia Snowe of our own in 2012."

I love it - time to squeeze the life out of these corporate-owned weasels who play the middle against both ends and pocket the cash.

Also, Snowe, Collins and Grassley have no business representing blue states.

Maine is a bit more to the left than NY-23 (0.00 / 0)
perhaps that'll deter national Republicans from backing her primary challenger.

A lot of the Right's discontent with Scozzafava was over the fact that she was nominated by local Republican leaders rather than by a primary election.  That won't be the case with Snowe.

At any rate, doesn't Snowe have superb approval ratings?  I imagine they must've taken a hit with the health care debate but I imagine they're still at least in the 55%-60% range.  I'd be interested in seeing her current approval ratings and how they break down along party and ideological lines.

And yes, we should start preparing a liberal challenger to Snowe, for either the primary or the general.

Yes... (0.00 / 0)
And is at 60% approval with Democrats despite her HC position for some bizarre reason.  Officially switching to the Democratic party will just further increase that... I'm not sure she will be quite as vulnerable as Specter (but I suppose there's a lot of time before then and we'll also get to see if Specter is able to survive his Democratic primary as well).
[ Parent ]
re: snowe (0.00 / 0)
I'm not sure she will be quite as vulnerable as Specter

filibustering health-care will change that?

[ Parent ]
It hasn't so far... (0.00 / 0)
At least not a ton, and I doubt that actually doing it versus the threats will make a big difference to people.  Most people probably don't even know what a filibuster is.
[ Parent ]
n/t (0.00 / 0)
If events repeat as they did with Specter, what will happen is that there will be a honeymoon period with Democrats, and then the backlash will kick in. If she switches parties too close to the primary, it will weaken her significantly.
[ Parent ]
n/t (0.00 / 0)
If events repeat as they did with Specter, what will happen is that there will be a honeymoon period with Democrats, and then the backlash will kick in. If she switches parties too close to the primary, it will weaken her significantly.
[ Parent ]
Yeah, but unlike Specter (4.00 / 1)
Snowe will probably do her switch with a little more class, and it won't come off as craven opportunism as much as it did with Specter.
[ Parent ]
Which basically means (4.00 / 3)
That Specter is just more honest about being a political whore.

Things You Don't Talk About in Polite Company: Religion, Politics, the Occasional Intersection of Both
[ Parent ]
Yup! (0.00 / 0)
To be honest, I appreciate and admire Specter's candor and honesty, though not what he's being candid and honest about.

Doesn't mean he should be reelected.

[ Parent ]
Geez, 60% for Democrats and 40% for Republicans (0.00 / 0)
you know you have problems when you're more popular with the other side than with your own.  That's like Lieberman status.
[ Parent ]
PPP has her approval at 51%, disapproval at 36% (0.00 / 0)
http://publicpolicypolling.blo...

Not bad at all, but weaker than you guessed. Of course any given poll can be outlier on the low side.

New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.

[ Parent ]
60% with Democrats... (4.00 / 1)
"That owes to a 60% approval rating with Democrats and a 51% mark with independents."

And that's what we're talking about here since we're talking about a Primary.

[ Parent ]
Maybe (4.00 / 2)
As a Mainer, I can't quite believe she'd lose a primary, no matter what the numbers say right now. She's an institution.

Plus by then there could be a backlash against Tea Partyism, and Olympia--who, unlike Specter, seems to have shreds of principle--might choose to stick it out and fight.

Or, to contradict myself, she might retire. She seems like someone Obama would want in his administration.  

I could see her retiring (4.00 / 2)
more easily than I could see her joining Senate Democrats. But who knows?

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.
[ Parent ]
not me (0.00 / 0)
Just flappin' my gums here on da blogz.  
[ Parent ]
I agree (4.00 / 2)
I like the analysis here, but it's a major omission ignoring the retirement possibility.
[ Parent ]
Her retirement... (4.00 / 2)
Could put her in a business-related role in the Administration and open up the seat for a real Democrat. Not a bad trade-off, IMO.
[ Parent ]
What principle? (0.00 / 0)
I remember, during the stimulus wrangle, Krugman wrote that he had looked long and hard at the antics of Snowe and the other "centrists", and that he couldn't discern any coherent guiding principle or idea whatsoever.

It was just ad hoc childish acting up for the sake of attention, in order to play the big shot and have the president kissing their asses.

Now on health care what they did makes perfect sense if the plan was to dangle "bipartisanship" before the fetishist Obama, string Baucus along, extract as many concessions as possible, drag the bill as far to the right as possible, and then vote against it anyway.

If I were a republican I'd think Grassley had done a hell of a job, and Snowe most of all, assuming that was really her plan, and she votes against it in the end.

But I can't imagine any "principle" which could be driving her. She's not so stupid that she doesn't know a trigger is a scam, so even if she voted for it, scamming has to be her intent in advocating it.

http://attempter.wordpress.com

[ Parent ]
Actually, Olympia does have principles... (0.00 / 0)
I read her comments about the trigger and the PO.  Basically, she feels that the PO is a scam, 'cos something similar did not work very well in Maine.  But, she believes that insurers fear the PO more than its actual effectiveness (in her mind), so the trigger, in her mind, would actually lower costs more than a real public option.

She basically feels that a public option cannot work at all, based on her experiences.  She feels that manipulating the insurers' fear of a public option would actually be more effective to keep them in line.

It's rational, even if it's wrong, and much less ideological than we think.

She actually is an honest player in this.... the problem is, she's convinced we're wrong and she's right, and there is very little that can change her mind.

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

[ Parent ]
She must be Spectered! (4.00 / 3)
We've have plenty of conservatives in the Democratic Caucus - we don't need any more.

This seat should be held by a progressive hero.

Support a Pennsylvania Progressive for Governor - Joe Hoeffel

At which point she will become useless (4.00 / 5)
because she will no longer be able to confer the aura of bipartisanship on Democratic bills.  (See Specter, Arlen)

For some reason, the Villagers just love a Republican who crosses the aisle to vote with the Dems.  But Caucus with them?  Who cares.

This principle is one more reason to kick Lieberman out of the Dem caucus.  If Lieberman is caucusing with the GOP, his opposition is no longer noteworthy.

If we do that, she may not bolt (4.00 / 2)
I'm sure she's waiting to see how it worked for Arlen, and, so far, it's not clear that it did. The primary on Arlen is producing useful pressure, but for him to actually lose in this gambit could discourage the others. I'm more interested in House Repubs who won in Obama districts. Yglesias says there are about 30 of these.
Not necessarily a bad thing (4.00 / 4)
The Democratic leadership seems fixated on convincing Republicans to party switch. I wouldn't say that strategy should never be used, but given the size of the Democratic majority, it seems far more important to fill the caucus with strong Democrats than add new conservative Democrats. Of course, those pushing this strategy may be seeking to maintain their own control in the party - to the extent that is true, their interests are not aligned with the interests of Democratic voters.

Support a Pennsylvania Progressive for Governor - Joe Hoeffel
[ Parent ]
While we're predicting (4.00 / 3)
In 2011 Snowe will register the "Maine for Snowe" party and Lieberman will be honorary chair of her campaign.  
health care queens (0.00 / 0)
i predict that snowe and collins will vote for cloture - quite possibly three times.
Come to think of it, polls with "generic" challengers might not be very indicative (4.00 / 1)
Generic challengers don't suffer from personality flaws, lack of charisma, sex scandals, etc., nor do they have to take any stands on the issues, aside from being a "conservative".

While the datum regarding the conservative challenger indicates strong potential for a successful primary challenge against Snowe, once that challenger has a face it could get a lot closer.  Close enough for Snowe to pull off a win.

Welcome aboard (0.00 / 0)
Now that she doesn't have to "reach out" to the kooks and extremists, perhaps she will stop posturing over health care.

Thank you, Republicans, for immolating yourselves.

Do not want. n/t (4.00 / 1)


"Don't take much, does it, elected Democrats, to get your balls tucked up." Cf.
So Dems get another Aralen Spector? (0.00 / 0)
Great!  Just what the world (doesn't) need!
No one's stating the obvious? (4.00 / 4)
she'll become an Independent.

Maine has elected 2 Independent governors in the past 35 years, and this was Ross Perot's best state. She can win easily as an Independent.  

that's also the.... (4.00 / 1)
first thought I had when viewing the poll. That she'd become an independent.

Even so, she'll get stripped of certain leadership positions and that prospect might force her into the Democratic camp.

Who knows. Not sure if I should feel bad for her though. Trying to keep a hold of the old Northeastern Republican brand must involve a lot of denial. I mean, the GOP did do some fine things, 100 years ago.

[ Parent ]
Caucus (4.00 / 3)
     Chris was careful to say that she'd join the Democratic caucus, not the party. That's what Jim Jeffords did in 2001.
    Olympia Snowe is no prize. She's been a partisan Republican all her life, and appears to actually believe that the Republican Party is committed to small government and "fiscal responsibility". She looks better than the other Republicans because they're all insane and she is merely craven.  
[ Parent ]
Ah, makes sense (4.00 / 1)
but she can still create problems as an Indy in the Dem caucus.  
[ Parent ]
Olympia Snowe will join Democratic Senate caucus in, at the most, 945 days | 34 comments
Donate to Open Left







QUICK HITS

Friends of the Earth thanks the OpenLeft community for the ideas you generate and your contributions to the progressive movement.
As an anti-spam measure, there is a 24-hour waiting period after registering before new users can comment.
blog advertising is good for you
blog advertising is good for you
LIBERAL INSTITUTIONS
STATE BLOGS
SEARCH

   

Advanced Search

Home | RSS/XML Feed | Register | Contact

  © OpenLeft 2007-2009, Powered by SoapBlox