Rebooting the financial casino

by: Ian Welsh

Thu Nov 12, 2009 at 21:00


It seems there is a proposal to create a new board to set accounting standards (h/t Digby):

The mechanism is contained in an amendment set to be introduced in mid-November by Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D-Colo.) that would move final authority over the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) from the Securities and Exchange Commission to a new body, a so-called "oversight" board, that would include the officials charged with managing systemic risks to the financial markets.

These regulators would have the authority to override FASB's accounting guidelines by taking into account economic conditions. (emphasis added)

The key factor in Japanification is that you don't allow bankrupt or insolvent banks or other major firms to fail.  You let them keep bad loans and "assets" on their book at inflated values, and you let time go by, intending to write the bad loans down very slowly as time goes by.  The effect of this is that real access to credit in the actual economy dries up, and as a result there is much less real growth.

Trading leverage at banks is up.  There are fewer, larger banks, few, too larger to fail banks, that is. Credit for consumers is more expensive, and the non-government guaranteed mortgage market has seized up.  Elsewhere Digby also notes that reports of mortgage fraud are actually up from last year.

There is going to be a recovery, it has already started in Asia.  Job numbers should start turning around in the spring in the US, though the number of people employed as a percentage of the population will not recover this economic cycle, and probably not for a generation.

However, Japanification doesn't mean you don't get some recoveries.  You do, then they sputter out.  Employment never really recovers, wages stagnate and things are just generally lousy without plunging the country into an all out depression.  So, yes, in that sense the country was "saved' from a Great Depression, but choosing the worst alternative.

That alternative isn't just Japanification, it is a continuation of the status-quo ante.  The Bush years, and indeed the Clinton years to a lesser extent, were about financial plays.  Instead of building a real economy, the chimerical returns of financialization were pursued.  Real businesses return 5% and consider that good.  Financialized companies, taking on too much risk and debt, slashing employees and capital and seeking returns through offshoring and outsourcing return 15%.  Leveraged financial plays return far more even than that.  The returns are fictional, the bailouts wiped out most of the profits of the last 8 years, but bonuses and salaries are paid on them, so they aren't fictional to executives, and it is executives who make the decisions.

What Obama, Geithner and Bernanke have been doing is attempting to reboot the financialized economy.  Rather than winding it down, breaking up banks, reinstituting Glass-Steagall, and regulating banks like utilities, they are attempting to get the Busheconomy working again.

The cost of all of this has been high.  In the trillions.  Instead of increasing progressive taxation to make the rich pay for their bailouts, what is being done is to make the poor and middle class pay.  This may be through high interest rates (letting credit card rates go to 29%, among other things) or it may be forcing the population to buy private health insurance, but once again, the rich fail, and everyone else pays the price.

The end result of Japanifying, regressive taxation (whether direct or indirect) and  attempting to restart the financial casino will not be pretty.  There will not necessarily be any immediate disaster, and some numbers will look good.  But the fundamental problems of the economy under Bush have not only not been fixed, they have been made worse and the evidence is being systematically buried.  There won't be another financial crisis immediately, but another one has been made inevitable.

Economically this is the legacy of this Congress, Federal reserve, and presidency.

Ian Welsh :: Rebooting the financial casino

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the physical landscape (4.00 / 4)
I just took a five-hour drive across NY state from Albany to Buffalo.  The effects of outsourcing are in plain sight as you motor past all the old manufacturing towns with their red brick 19th century buildings, most of which now stand empty.  The main streets in these places have deteriorated terribly, and there is no sense of community.  But out on the edge of each town at the freeway exit, there are clusters of predatory big box chain stores selling inexpensive goods imported from third world countries.  It's a sad spectacle, and it's hard to believe that more people can't see what we've done to ourselves, and why they aren't outraged about it.

Why be outraged (0.00 / 0)
when you can surround yourself with the cheap stuff you can buy at the big box store just outside of your town?

Lots of sports to be watched on the big screen highdef TV and lots of nature travels shows to bring the world to your living room.

Outrage is so third world, you know.

"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."


[ Parent ]
This is a great essay. (4.00 / 2)
Financialization also drives up the price of health care because pharmaceutical companies, for example, feel they need 15% returns to keep up with Wall Street. What a mess!

"The cost of all of this has been high. In the trillions." (0.00 / 0)
And so, not surprisingly, Japan has become one of the world leaders in the the public debt/GDP ratio, right behind industrial giant Zimbabwe (if the UK hasn't recently surpassed both):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L...

Now, Japan is still creditworthy, it's a successful industrial nation that is probably able to repay those enormous sums. But they don't have much room for any emergency spending left, and this is a risky position. It's path other nations shouldn't follow.


And why is Britain catching up fast? (0.00 / 0)
Because we have a horribly outsized financial sector, a manufacturing sector that was forcibly deindustrialised by Thatcher and a government that refused to crack down on corporate malfeasance.

Add in the Treasury's refusal to properly nationalise and delist RBS and Lloyds, instead incurring vastly more debt but letting them fire thousands of their workers, and you begin to see why we're sinking fast.

The worst thing is that it'll get worse, when Cameron gets in, cuts funding across the board, declares war on unions and the public sector and causes unemployment to rise 5% within a year. Not that anybody will notice, of course, because the stock market and executive compensation won't be affected.

We need a Tobin tax, and fast. The problem is that whilst Brown may have been belatedly convinced of this, Geithner, the Russians and the Canadians aren't about to fall in line, and the Tories certainly don't favour the idea.

Forgotten Countries - a foreign policy-focused blog


[ Parent ]
And, sad to say that, but much of this happened under Labor rule. (0.00 / 0)
And it's been almost the same in Germany, where are much too centrist social democratic government implemented very bussiness freindly policies without delivering anything for their working and middle class constituency. Imho it can't be that a left wing majority engages in tax reductions that favor the rich, in total disregard of the factually proven rising inequality. No spriprise voters believe it makes no difference if they vote for conservatives, when social democratic politics are already so far removed from the base. It's a tragedy.

[ Parent ]
And Harry Reid (0.00 / 0)
Is proposing new payroll taxes.  I thought the Democrats were for us working people.  This ought to help keep the economy in the toilet with Zimbabwe.  Where are the jobs?

Conservative......CNN news:Nopenhagen: US PRES 2 WKS LATE ATTEND 1 DAY, GORE JOURNEY BY TRAIN.

re: working people (0.00 / 0)
Majority Leader Harry Reid is considering a plan for higher payroll taxes on the upper-income earners to help finance health care legislation he intends to introduce in the Senate in the next several days, numerous Democratic officials said Wednesday.

These officials said one of the options Reid has had under review would raise the payroll tax that goes to Medicare, but only on income above $250,000 a year. Current law sets the tax at 1.45 percent of income, an amount matched by employers.

It was not known how large an increase Reid, D-Nev., was considering, or whether it would also apply to a company's portion of the tax. President Barack Obama has said he will not raise taxes on wage earners making less than $250,000.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/200...

[ Parent ]
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