Musings about NY-Sen

by: Adam Bink

Fri Nov 27, 2009 at 17:00


Via devtob at The Albany Project, Josh Marshall is being a little overly pessimistic about the prospects of Gillibrand retaining the Senate seat in NY next year. Here's Marshall:

Maybe she'll turn out to be a great senator. But this one surprised everyone when it was announced. And she's far from the best positioned person to hold this seat in 2010. It wasn't clear when she was appointed that it would be such a tough climate for Dems. But that's life. If Giuliani gets in to this race, this one could end up looking like a senate (seat) Gov. Paterson all but gave away to the Republicans.

Now, I'm not the world's biggest fan of Gillibrand, but she's been very good so far in the Senate, has worked extremely hard to raise her profile and win the seat. Far from the best positioned? Even though Marshall doesn't say who would have been better positioned, even leaving aside the hindsight is 20/20 argument, I am doubtful that any of the other contenders would have been better. I have trouble seeing why a Caroline Maloney or a Randi Weingarten would have been too much better positioned, all things considered. Byron Brown? I can't even count on one hand the number of good things he's done for Buffalo. Caroline Kennedy?

With respect to the optics of holding the seat, at the time she was chosen, Giuliani wasn't really looking to run for anything, and the expectation was Governor if he did. As devtob points out, there was no "lock" on the seat except Cuomo, and we all know he wanted to run for Governor. I don't know how Paterson could be charged with "giving away" the seat just because Giuliani is scared of losing the gubernatorial race. Besides, I'm not even sure he gets in. Being 100th in seniority for an impatient egomanic like Giuliani, with no executive power whatsoever, doesn't come across to me like it's up his alley. If he does get in, I remember he couldn't even be well-informed on a bunch of major issues in the presidential race, making numerous gaffes on basic policy. He's lazy as hell. He's no lock to win the seat.

What is also interesting to me is how many people have made noises, or are still making noises, about running. First Carolyn McCarthy threatens to run the very day Gillibrand was appointed over gun issues. Then she bows out. Then Carolyn Maloney reportedly gets in, then gets out. At some point Tasini, a labor and anti-war activist who also ran in a primary against Clinton in 2006, got in, and Jon Cooper, an openly gay Suffolk County legislator who has been deciding for months, just said he will wait another several weeks to announce if he's running. Now, via Gray in Quick Hits, Bill Thompson might run because, it seems, he just wants to run for something. Giuliani is the same way. The amount of hand-wringing in this race is certainly entertaining, if nothing else.

Adam Bink :: Musings about NY-Sen

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Musings about NY-Sen | 20 comments
Giuliani uses potential races (4.00 / 2)
As a way to generate business.  He was going to run against Hillary in 2000 but then Hillary proved pretty good at campaigning, he wasn't doing so well and then got cancer and stepped out of the race so late his less than competent successor (Rick Lazio) couldn't succeed.  Then he was going to be the big favorite for President, but a funny thing happened on the way to the primaries.

If he isn't going to run for governor he isn't going to run period, in part for the reasons expressed (ego) and partly because backbencher in the Senate isn't a platform for anything bigger.  I'd bet he'd rather try Pres again in 2012 if it is going begging.  

I agree Gillibrand has been ok as Senator, even moved left on a few issues to solidify her base.  The GOP has who?  Peter King?


John McCain--He's not who you think he is.

What business does he run? (0.00 / 0)
And how does it benefit from his running for office, or his feints towards running for office?
[ Parent ]
'backbencher in the senate isn't a platform for anything' (0.00 / 0)
Talk to Hillary Clinton about that one.  Now, Rudy has the stench of having already failed at running for President.  But if you go into the senate as already having a high profile, you can maintain that profile.  
[ Parent ]
Except ... (4.00 / 1)
Hillary was a known name before ... Rudy's dragged himself through the mud since .. because Jimmy Breslin's words are so true about Mr. 9/11
[ Parent ]
Rudy is a paper tiger (4.00 / 3)
Between Bernie Kerik and the Sex on the City scandal,
http://thenewshole.msnbc.msn.c...
http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpoi...
he could not get elected dogcatcher in a general election.

Convicted felon Kerik wasn't a casual aquaintance, but Rudy's close friend and protege.

Giuliani would go on to name Kerik his top corrections officer, then his police commissioner and eventually his business partner when the city-hall years came to an end. The two were inseparable for the better part of a decade.

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/natio...

http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpoi...

There is no such thing as a free market.

Jonathan Tasini would be great (4.00 / 1)
but then he's one of those real Democrats.  You know those old timey FDR types.  Read his blog http://workinglife.com/
Can Open Left throw some institutional or monetary support behind him? (0.00 / 0)
Even just posting updates about his campaign would be great.

Speaking of Tasini, he's apparently coming to Mill Valley, CA (near San Francisco, where I live), of all places, next week.

[ Parent ]
As for Gillibrand, I am grateful she is a chameleon (0.00 / 0)
who has now taken a progressive coloration, reflecting her new constituency of NYS Democrats and the Working Families Party. As a Congressmember, she represented the left side of NY-20, a GOP-gerrymandered rural constituency, though less boldly than Maurice Hinchey in a similar district.  She joined the Blue Dog caucus but voted more like a mainstream dem.

She is an excellent campaigner, as her clear win over John (Congressman Kick-Ass) Sweeney in 2006 and her crushing reelection against the popular and wealthy Treadwell showed. Her grandmother, Polly Noonan, was the mistress of perpetual mayor Erastus Corning.  

But before running for office, besides serving as a Clinton aide, Gillibrand was not only a corporate lawyer, but worked for arguably the most murderous corporation in the world: Philip Morris.

As I said, whe is a chameleon, who takes on the coloration of her clients.  In her initial race I worked not to elect her but to defeat Sweeney and to elect Pelosi Speaker.

I will vote for Tasini in the primary, although it is apparent he doesn't have the money or organized support to make a race of it.  

Polls showing her vulnerable against Giuliani or Pataki measure mostly statewide name recognition, which will change by next fall. I expect Gillibrand to win the general by double digits, and will direct my support to closer races, especially the races of more reliable progressives.


There is no such thing as a free market.

Unfortunately, the question we have to ask is (4.00 / 2)
what happens with Gillibrand after she wins reelection?  Will she continue to be a mainstream Democrat, or will she be like Arlen Specter, defaulting to her natural centrist tendencies until the next election comes around?

Regardless of the answer, I'd still feel a lot better with Jonathan Tasini in the seat.

[ Parent ]
Her natural tendency is adaptibility, so we should keep the pressure on (4.00 / 3)
Her record in the Senate so far has been reasonably good,
noticeably better than her record in the House.
Unfortunately, Tasini has less chance in this race than Palin has to be elected President, but the better he does, the better.

But if we want to elect people like Wellstone and Hinchey to statewide and higher office, the Left needs stronger organizing.

Putting my money where my keyboard is, I will now contribute to OpenLeft.

There is no such thing as a free market.

[ Parent ]
How tiring it would be (0.00 / 0)
if we have to expend resources to keep Gillibrand in line every day of our career.

Maybe if it's too late to help Tasini now, we can really lay the groundwork for a more successful challenge in 2012.

[ Parent ]
give me chameleons (4.00 / 1)
give me a bunch of candidates that actually vote their damn districts, and do what they say they are going do do while campaigning.

That I can deal with, this turncoat crap after being elected is what I cannot deal with.

[ Parent ]
Imho Kennedy would have been the better choice.... (0.00 / 0)
...regarding her strong name recognition, big popularity, and solid liberal credentials. In December 2008, before the Paterson gang started smearing her, she could run circles around Gillibrand:
http://www.publicpolicypolling...

However, Gillibrand sure has strenghtened her postion since that time when she was the first choise of only 6% of New York Democrats. But will it be good enough? And is it desirable at all, wouldn't a more left wing candidate with higher popularity be both the safer bet and better choice?

Well, what about Tasini? Certainly preferable from the progressive point of view, but how many voters know him at all? Any numbers?

[ Parent ]
Those Kennedy numbers (4.00 / 1)
Are hollow. She embarrassed herself on her 30-minute-per-city western NY visit tour. It was all name recognition.


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[ Parent ]
Don't forget Harold Ford! (0.00 / 0)
ROTFLMAO

New York has two very good Senators. There is no issue here. All the hyperventilating people get into over this is just bizarre when there are plenty of Republican Senators that need replacing and plenty of Democratic ones that need protecting. Gillibrand and Schumer don't fall into either of those catagories.

Peace,

Andrew

Nobody's talking about Schumer, afaics. (0.00 / 0)
Quite to the contrary, as I understand it, lots of liberals want him to replace Reid...  
[ Parent ]
Gillibrand (4.00 / 1)
I live in the 20th Gillibrand's former district.  She has been very good on the issues, and I hope she stays in the seat.  Some of my political pals doubt her sincerity, but these days I'll take anyone who is more or less voting to support the Democratic agenda.  She is actually well to the left of most of the aging white guys in the Senate.
"well to the left of most of the aging white guys". Uh, great. (0.00 / 0)
But regarding the fact that she was a member of the BlueDog caucus in the House, this isn't much of an accomplishment. Says more about the other effing Dem Senators than about her.
[ Parent ]
The thing is, this shouldn't be a matter of "oh she's good enough, let's keep her" (0.00 / 0)
it should be, is she the best we can get out of her constituency?

I mean if she was Senator from South Dakota or something that'd be terrific.  But she's from New York, where Blue Dogs theoretically shouldn't even exist.

And when we have a real liberal/progressive like Jonathan Tasini running, it shouldn't be "Gillibrand's good enough, so we'll keep her around and hope for the best" anymore, it should be "there's a great liberal by the name of Jonathan Tasini running and we should do everything we can to get him elected".

[ Parent ]
There's actually one other candidate in the race (0.00 / 0)
Dr. Scott Noren, but if his very incoherent website is of any indication he isn't a liberal; he's a "fiscally conservative" Democrat who's critical of the public option and wants a Steve Forbes-style flat tax.
Musings about NY-Sen | 20 comments
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