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I am deeply saddened on so many different levels by the President's speech last night, and his Afghanistan policy in general. Steady escalation is not the answer to this godawful complicated mess. It's all well and good to keep making the argument as to why this is not another Vietnam, although it sure does feel that way to a lot of us, but the big question in terms of comparisons is how this is different than Britain or Russia's experience in Afghanistan itself.
I am also deeply anguished as someone who has a much broader agenda than just this war or even foreign policy and national security in general. The money we will spend, and the political capital that will be burnt, by this war are a horrible price to pay- and for what goal? Will this surge defeat Al Queda and the Taliban once and for all? Will they make Afghanistan and Pakistan safe places for the long run? It just doesn't seem very likely.
This is at its core also bad politics on so many different levels. History is very clear on this topic. Two of our last three Democratic Presidents have had their presidencies broken and sunk on the rocks of a terrible relationship with the progressive base: Jimmy Carter over economics, and LBJ over a wrong- headed land war in Asia. With this escalation, and with Geithner and Summers running Obama's economic policy, this President seems like he wants to pick fights with us in both areas. It truly is heart breaking.
There is one of ray of hope in this announcement, and that is the announcement of an actual timeline for an exit. Giving us an exit plan with an actual timeline is extremely important politically, and does give me some comfort. The scary thing is that we know almost for sure that the generals and their allies in congress will start clamoring about a year from now that "conditions on the ground" show that we can't get things done under Obama's timeline, and that he needs to change his plan. The big question at that point is just how much gumption Obama has, whether he will stand up to the significant political pressure that will be raining down on him. But for now, let's absolutely give him credit for getting at least this part of the strategy right. He is calling the surgers' bluff: they say they need these troops for a short term burst of activity to uproot the Taliban's strength once and for all. Obama is giving it to them, but telling them they have only 18 months to prove their case. We must hope, for the country's sake and for his own sake, that when these folks come back to him and say "Whoops, we can't get this taken care of in the short term" (because we all know they will), that Obama stands up to them and says no.
A dear friend of mine is a Marine officer who was recently deployed to Afghanistan, on a week's notice, after 2 tours of duty in Iraq. For him, and for all his brothers and sisters in arms, my anguish and worry about this newest escalation is intense. For him, and all the rest of America's soldiers in Afghanistan, I hope that Obama sticks to his exit strategy. It could not come a moment too soon.
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