The path forward for the public option is grim. Here is what it faces:
- Landrieu, Lieberman, Lincoln and Ben Nelson all appear to oppose cloture on a health care bill with the current version of the public option in the Senate. The new "compromise" they are working on has nothing to do with the public option at all. It isn't even the non-public (co-op), non-option (trigger) that Carper had floated for a while. It is something else entirely:
Following the meeting, Pryor declined to get too specific, but did say that a leading proposal involves increasing the ability of the Office of Personnel Management -- which oversees the federal employee health plans -- to negotiate on behalf of individuals and small businesses. Pryor told a HuffPost and an AP reporter that it was unclear how exactly it would be set up, but that it would take the place of the public option managed by the Health and Human Services Secretary.
This isn't necessarily a bad idea, but it certainly is not a public option. Then again, the co-op trigger wasn't even close to a public option either, so maybe it really doesn't matter.
- Reconciliation is probably a dead end. Even though there appear to be enough votes for a public option to pass through reconciliation, few Senators are discussing reconciliation as an option right now. What's worse, a reconciliation bill would have to go through Kent Conrad's Budget Committee, which almost certainly make sure that a Social Security / Medicare "commission"
be attached to any health care bill (update--commenter JasonCNJ corrects me on the process of reconciliation) be passed in exchange for a public option that went through there. Trading the public option for an undemocratic cut of Social Security and Medicare is not something I, or I bet many public option supporters, would be happy with.
- Killing the bill from the left in the Senate is not going to happen. While some people think that Roland Burris and Bernie Sanders have claimed they will block a bill that lacks a public option, they really haven't. A spokesman for Burris specifically told me he has not committed to voting against cloture on such a bill, and Bernie Sanders has simply said he would be "very reluctant" to accept such a bill. Further, keep in mind that not long ago Sanders was taking the lead in trying to get all Democrats to vote for cloture on the bill. Doesn't seem to me like any Senate Democrats will filibuster the bill from the left.
- At this point, reinstating some form of the public option during in conference committee is probably the best option. The conference committee would take place in January, giving us more time to pressure Lieberman, Lincoln, Landrieu and Ben Nelson (who is actually more focused on Stupak-language), to accept cloture on a bill without a public option.
However, during a conference committee, the pressure would largely fall on House Progressives to fold yet again. Fifty-eight of the sixty members of the Progressive Block already backed down from their threat to kill the bill if it lacks a public option tied to Medicare rates, making it difficult to draw a new line in the sand. Further, the current major fight in the House is actually over the Stupak amendment, which will not be in the Senate version of the bill (Ben Nelson's Stupak amendment will be defeated either later today or tomorrow). Given that there are competing blocs threatening to kill the bill in the House if the Stupak amendment is included or removed, expect that fight to take precedence. The possible paths for the public option are all pretty poor. This has led some to start asking what Progressives would consider accepting in exchange for the public option. The only two ideas I have ever thought of are:
- A trigger written by the Progressive Caucus. That gambit was already floated, and rejected, by Senators like Susan Collins. Plus, Lieberman is opposed to even the trigger.
- The Franken amendment which would require 90% of all health insurance dollars go to providing health care. Currently, the House bill only requires 85%.
Overall, the best bet would be to get the Franken amendment in the Senate bill before the conference committee, and keep up the pressure for the public option in the conference committee. Then, when the conference committee is over, we review our options, and decide whether or not that final version of the bill is worth passing.
Update--Medicare buy-in compromise?: Ezra Klein reports that allowing Americans aged 55 or older (instead of the current 65) is gaining steam as a possible "compromise."
F*ck the triggered co-op. The OPM plan, plus the Franken amendment, plus lowering the age to buy into Medicare, would be a helluva a lot better.
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