Rankings changes: Illinois moves from Lean Republican to Toss-up; Florida moves from Solid Republican to Toss-up.
States with new polls: Arkansas, Delaware, Illinois, Colorado, Connecticut, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania
Commentary: The overall picture actually slightly improves for Democrats. While the negative polling picture in Colorado, Connecticut and Nevada has worsened, those seats were already considered Republican pickups in the forecast. Improvement in Illinois, along with Rubio gaining in the Republican primary in Florida, results in the forecast shifting from a 4-seat loss to a 3-seat loss.
The best way for Democrats to keep improving is to focus on jobs. This is probably why, in a speech before a bunch of CEOs, Rahm Emanuel has declared reducing the deficit is the top economic priority for next year:
Deficit reduction over the long term will be the White House's primary focus next year, and Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel said at the Wall Street Journal's CEO Council conference last month it will be a "key component" of the president's State of the Union address.
"It is foremost on his mind and the mind of the economic team," Emanuel said.
Good idea. The budget deficit is also the top priority of, like, 2% of the nation:
"What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?" Open-ended
Economy/Jobs: 47
Health care: 12
War/Peace (general): 4
Poverty/Homelessness: 3
Moral values/Family values: 3
War in Afghanistan: 2
War in Iraq: 2
Budget deficit: 2
Other: 20
Unsure: 5
This poll makes a mockery of the notion that the country is mainly concerned about the deficit right now. When people are not promoted with any choices, only 2% of the country independently lists the deficit as a top priority.
Complete forecast, with all the usual colorful charts, can be found in the extended entry.
(Others to keep an eye on: New York, North Dakota, Washington, Wisconsin)
Methodology:
The forecast is entirely based on polling.
For now, use the simple mean of all polls where the majority of interviews were conducted since September 12th (the last 90 days).
When available, at least two polls are used for every campaign, even if the majority of their interviews were conducted before September 12th.
As the election draws closer, restrict the timeframe for polls included in the averages. During the final six weeks of an election, use the simple mean from the last 15 days.
In campaigns with more than one poll, those where one party is ahead by 6.0 or more are considered "solid." Campaigns between 2.7 and 5.9 are considered "leans." Campaigns within 2.6 or less are considered "toss-ups." These categories are subject to refinement based on continued research into past elections.
"Solid" and "lean" seats are considered pickups, while toss-ups are 50-50 for each party. States with mixed results will be considered 50-50 until the primary election. The overall forecast is the most likely seat change based on the current forecast. This is also subject to refinement.
Do not include Zogby Interactive polls and Columbus Dispatch polls, due to their horrendous past performance and questionable methodologies.
Do not include Strategic Vision polls, as it is starting to seem likely those are not real polls.
Include campaign-funded polls. Further, if there is more than one poll from a single organization, include all of them.
The basic idea is to cram as many polls with sound methodologies into the averages as possible, and weight them evenly to include more overall data in the sample. Because voter preferences don't really change that much in high-profile elections, I thought this method might produce a more accurate result through logic of regression to the mean. It seems to work pretty well, as my research has shown so far.
This is different from my 2006 and 2008 methodology in that it includes polls from 15 days out from an election, instead of only 8. Further, campaign funded polls, and multiple polls from a single polling firm, are now included. All of these changes were made to include more polls in the averages, since my previous methodology was about 10-20% less accurate than Pollster.com and fivethrityeight.com. Since they had already raised the bar so high, and since they will probably improve their methodologies for 2010 even more, it was time for Open Left to step it up.
Notes:
*= Faces primary, but heavy favorite
**= Not an announced candidate at this time
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