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There's a somber mood in Copenhagen on the last day of climate negotiations, with prospects for a strong and fair agreement feeling further and further out of reach. A leaked UN document shows current proposals would add up to an alarming 3 degree C temperature rise and the U.S. is still refusing to budge. Indeed, it now seems increasingly possible that rich countries' leaders may not even be able to piece together the weak, fig leaf of a "political" rather than "binding" agreement that most observers had been anticipating. There's been some important news here over the last 24 hours. LEAKED UN DOCUMENT EXPOSES HOW CURRENT PROPOSALS ADD UP TO CATASTROPHIC WARMING First, a secret UN analysis of countries' current emission reduction proposals was leaked to the media. That analysis concluded that, when put together, the proposals now on the table would likely result in a global temperature rise to 3ºC above pre-industrial levels -- a catastrophic rise that would put small island states under water and cause suffering and death for millions of people. Small island states that are fighting for their very survival are calling for limiting warming to 1.5ºC, and almost all countries -- including the U.S. -- have said that more than a 2ºC rise would pose unacceptable risks. So it's nothing short of scandalous that while calling for a 2ºC rise, rich countries' proposed actions would actually lead to 3ºC. This is the real climate gate. Indeed, this document shows that developing nations are actually proposing deeper emissions cuts at this point than developed ones. That's abhorrent. NEW SECRET RICH COUNTRY TEXT ALSO LEAKED One of the key dynamics at the negotiations has to do with process and lack of transparency. There are two key formal negotiating tracks here -- one under the Kyoto Protocol and one for all signatories to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, which includes those countries that have not signed onto Kyoto (the U.S. falls into this second group). But it seems like most of the real negotiating has gone on behind closed doors between rich countries and a few hand-picked poorer ones. The world's poorest nations have done the least to cause climate change but face some of its worst impacts. It's a shame that they're being cut out of the process. During the first days of the climate summit, we learned that secret pre-negotiations had produced a "Danish text" -- a proposed draft text for an agreement that could be substituted for the text being formally negotiated in the conference if talks fell through. When the existence of that text was exposed, developing country representatives were outraged and the text was ditched. But this morning, a new secret draft text assembled by a group of 26 countries -- primarily wealthy ones -- has leaked. Friends of the Earth's policy team has already analyzed it. We found that, while the draft still has many blanks that need to be filled in, it's already clear that it would shift the burden of paying for adaptation to climate change impacts away from rich countries, effectively selling out the world's poor. Basically, the draft isn't worth the paper it's written on. But reports from negotiators in the Bella Center indicate that this draft -- and an updated version being worked on -- could be the likely basis for any eventual political agreement. (More on President Obama's flop of a speech in the extended entry.)
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