Even though I think they are sampling too broad a population in Iowa to provide an accurate picture of the caucus, it is still probably too early to be polling likely voters in Iowa, so that isn't a real crime yet. Focusing only on Iowa, New Hampshire and national polls until the calendar is finally sorted out, here are the current, entirely post-Labor Day polling averages:
All State Polls Taken September 6th through September 29th Democratic Nomination, At a Glance
State
Est. Date
# Polls
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Richardson
Net Avail Cash
Jun 30
Q2
$29.6M
$33.6M
$11.8M
$6.9M
Iowa
Dec-Jan?
4
26.5%
23.0%
21.5%
11.5%
New Hampshire
Jan 08?
5
39.6%
18.8%
12.8%
8.8%
National
Feb 05
NA
39.2%
21.8%
13.6%
3.0%
After months of trying to force a two-person race, the established media is closer than ever to actually achieving one. While Edwards is still clearly in the game in Iowa, he has now fallen to third behind Obama. Given that Obama is also the leading second choice among Iowans according to both Newsweek and LA Times / Bloomberg, right now Iowa looks like a virtual tie between Obama and Clinton, with Edwards slightly behind. This change of events is largely based on the difference in paid media in the state, as Clinton, Obama, Richardson, Biden and Dodd have combined for nearly $7M, and Edwards has only chipped in $23,000. Accepting public funds won't help that situation, either. Edwards is going to have to win Iowa on the ground.
Outside of Iowa, Clinton's lead is pretty large. Whether or not it will hold if she loses Iowa is the obvious question facing the campaign.
Republican Nomination, At a Glance
State
Est. Date
# Polls
Romney
Giuliani
Thompson
McCain
Hukabee
Net Avail Cash
June 30
Q2
$12.1M
$14.7M
$2.8M
$0.1M
$0.4M
Iowa
Dec-Jan?
4
26.4%
16.8%
15.3%
8.3%
8.0%
New Hampshire
Jan 08
4
26.4%
22.4%
11.8%
17.2%
3.6%
South Carolina
Jan 19
2
17.5%
23.0%
18.0%
15.0%
3.5%
National
Feb 05
NA
8.3%
27.2%
21.2%
14.0%
4.0%
ARG polls tend to not make any sense--since when is Romney at 26% in South Carolina, but also watching his lead fade in New Hampshire and Iowa? Either way, Romney's continued national struggles, along with his decreasing lead in both Iowa and New Hampshire, have me worried. He is almost certainly the weakest general election candidate for Republicans, and so I had been watching him take command over the Republican nomination with glee. However, at this point, Giuliani has almost caught up to him in the overall campaign for the nomination. McCain and Thompson also seem to be moving into somewhat better positions than they had been in for the past couple months. Huckabee, by contrast, is close to achieving flash in the pan status.
Methodological notes can be found in the extended entry.
My averages are different from those at Pollster.com, because I use a simple mean while they use a trendline system. Mystery Pollster writes about that here.
Only announced candidates with 5% or more in most polling averages are shown.
National polling averages taken from Pollster.com. Virtually all early state polls can also be found at Pollster.com.
“Net Available Cash” equals cash on hand minus debts minus amount raised for general election. More information can be found at Open Secrets. Current numbers are not precise, as all data is not yet available.
For Democrats, early state polls that only include Clinton, Edwards and Obama in the questions were not included.
For Democrats, early state polls that include Gore in the question were only included when Gore-less results were unavailable.
February 5th is not actually a national primary, but due to the large number of states holding nomination events on that date, national polls are used as a placeholder.
STATE BLOGS
