It is going to take a long time to finish the health care bill. Once House and Senate negotiators reach a deal, even then it will take 10 to 13 days before the CBO report is returned:
Though Democratic leaders will attempt to work quickly, the aide added that even once a final bill is negotiated between the chambers it would take 10 to 13 days for the Congressional Budget Office to produce an official cost estimate.
After the CBO returns its final report, it will take another 72 hours for the House to vote on the bill. And then, after that, it will take another 30 hours for the Senate to pass the bill.
All in all, this means that it will take at least 14 days, and possibly as long as 18 days, for Congress to send the health care bill to President Obama's desk even after negotiations are finished. That would mean January 25th, even if negotiations finished today, which they won't.
The Massachusetts special election to fill Ted Kennedy's seat will take place on January 19th. The latest conservative persecution fantasy--currently being pedaled by the Boston Herald--is that Democrats would put off Brown's swearing in until February 20th in order to allow the health care bill to pass. However, the truth is that Brown will be sworn in a day or two after Coakley conceedes, and that the health care bill will probably be DOA, in terms of votes, if Brown wins anyway.
So, it appears that the Massachusetts special election for Ted Kennedy's seat will determine the fate of the health care bill. The three polls released on the campaign over the past week show Democratic nominee Martha Coakley ahead by 8.3%. Looking over the 138 closest statewide campaigns for President, Senate and Governor from 2004-2009, there were only seven instances where the final polling average missed the final result by more than 8.3%. That would translate into a paltry 2.6% of a Scott Brown victory, even given current polling.
Nate Silver has suggested that polling for special elections is notoriously difficult, akin more to primary polling, where he says individual polls have an average error of 7%. If that is true, it is quite different from general election polling (where individual polls have a mean error of only 3.9%. However, even this difference would only improve Brown's chances to 9%, still leaving Martha Coakley as the overwhelming favorite. Still, it is remarkable that a Republican has even a 9% chance to fill Ted Kennedy's seat, and a sign of just how bad things are for Democrats right now.
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