Only 34% of Americans oppose the health care bill from the right, making this position less popular than legalizing marijuana.
There have been four public polls on the question of marijuana legalization over the past year. The results were as follows:
Should marijuana be legalized?
| Pollster |
Date |
Legalize It |
| Average |
2009 |
40.5% |
| Gallup |
Oct '09 |
44 |
| ABC / WaPo |
Apr '09 |
46 |
| CBS / NYT |
Mar 09 |
31 |
| CBS / NYT |
Jan '09 |
41 |
In 2009, 40-41% of the country favored the legalization of marijuana. By comparison, looking at relevant polling, over the last two months only 34% of the country opposes the health care bill because it goes too far:
Does health care reform go too far / is too liberal?
| Pollster |
Date |
Goes too far / is too liberal |
| Average |
Last two months |
34% |
| CBS |
Jan '10 |
32% |
| CNN |
Dec '09 |
39% |
| McClatchy |
Nov '09 |
31% |
Only 34% of the country opposes the health care bill because they think it goes too far or is too liberal. That is decidedly less than the 40-41% of the country that faces marijuana legalization.
With only 34% of the country opposing the health care bill from the right, that means it would take a congressional district with a Cook partisan voting index of, roughly speaking, Republican +16 for the majority of people in a given congressional district to oppose the bill from the right. No Democratic Senators come from a state with such a right-leaning electorate, and only four Democratic members of the House represent such districts: Bobby Bright (AL-02), Walt Minnick (ID-01), Gene Taylor (MS-04) and Chet Edwards (TX-17). A handful of others Democrats are close, represetning districts in the range of R+12 to R +14.
None of this makes the health care bill popular, or that a consensus has been reached on health care reform. However, what it does show is that right-wing opposition to health care is nowhere close to a majority position nationwide. There will be almost no negative political repercussions for the Democratic members of Congress and the Senate who vote in favor of the health care bill.
Because about 30% of opponents to the health care bill are on the ideological left, and because few Democrats want their member of Congress to vote against the bill (even if most think the bill doesn't go far enough), there is no viable electoral path to defeating members of Congress because of their vote favor of the health care bill. Primaries are not a viable means of doing this, and it does not appear as though general elections will be, either.
A lot of Democrats are going to lose in 2010, but it does not appear that many will lose specifically because of their support for the health care bill.
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