Based on that model, I feel pretty confident Scott Brown will not win by as much as 6.9%, as Pollster.com is currently estimating. Unfortunately, I feel pretty confident Scott Brown will win anyway. The polling is converging and, as such, so are the electoral forecasts.
Further, the error in my model will probably favor Brown at this point. This is because the polls from the second to last week of the campaign are more favorable to Coakley than the polls over the final week. A report by NCPP showed that polls taken in the second to last week of the campaign are about 15% less accurate than polls taken during the final week of the campaign. While I have not yet tested to see if applying this negative 15% weight to polls taken during the penultimate week of the campaign would produce even more accurate results, I suspect it would.
So, I think it will be closer than many are forecasting, but I still think Scott Brown will win. While a Coakley win is not out of the question, at this point it is not very likely.