Projected 2010 Senate: Democrats 54-46 (assuming no caucus switches)
Even though it is only January, developments in the 2010 Senate picture keep coming in every day. So, it is time for another major update to the Senate picture.
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Today's forecast shows the Democratic situation has improved in a number of states: Missouri, Colorado, Nevada, and North Carolina. Much of this was due to new statewide polling from Polimetrix. While those all of those states except Missouri still show significant leans, they have moved back into more competitive territory.
While still grim, the situation is far from hopeless for Democrats. A national swing of 3%--which is very doable given the dominance of Rasmussen in the polls here and if the employment situation improves--would add another 2 seats to their total. Keeping a majority of 56 seats would actually be pretty respectable, given that Republicans haven't had a majority like that since the 1928 elections.
Senate forecast overview
Democrats*
Republicans
Not up for election
41
23
Currently safe
9
12
Sub-total
50
35
Current polling
3.68
11.32
Projected total
54
46
* = Because they caucus with Senate Democrats, Independents Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman are considered Democrats
The 15 currently competitive Senate campaigns ("Competitive" is defined as campaigns where incumbent party currently leads by 18% or less in current polling among announced candidates) Democrats: 3.68 (4)
Republicans: 11.32 (11)
STATE BLOGS
