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The January 7-11 poll from GQR had this important finding:
Democrats have lost 6% in the generic ballot from 2008 due to people switching from Democrats to Republicans, and have lost an additional 3% from projected lower Democratic turnout. Even though this means there are about as many 2008 Democratic voters switching to Republicans as there are Democrats who are currently unlikely to vote in 2010. Those who are switching to Republicans are causing twice as many problems because they are removing a vote from the Democratic column and adding one to the Republican column, while those deciding not to vote are just removing one from the Democratic problem.
The problem Democrats face from voters defecting to Republicans is exacerbated when one conducted a closer examination of the 2008 national congressional vote. While GQR posits a 2008 Democratic victory of 53%-45%, the Green Papers shows that Democrats actually won by 53.18%--42.53%, or 9.65%. This suggests that Democrats have lost even more than 6% to voters who have defected from Democrats to Republicans--possibly as much as 7-8%.
Additionally, as I wrote three weeks ago, some of the lower Democratic turnout is entirely natural, given lower turnout for youth voters in midterm elections:
Long-term data from the census bureau indicates that the turnout gap between Americans above and below the age of 45 widens significantly in mid-term elections. For example, over the last nine Presidential elections, Americans aged 45-64 turned out, on average, at a rate 12.7% higher than Americans aged 25-44. However, in mid-term elections, the average gap over the last nine cycles has been 17.1%. Given that Obama won 55% of the vote among Americans aged 25-44, but only 50% of the vote among Americans aged 45-64, this "natural" turnout problem facing Democrats in mid-term elections also makes the specific problems they face in 2010 appear more pronounced than it actually is. Midterms electorates are worse for Democrats than presidential electorates.
Altogether, this makes the problem of voters switching from Democrats to Republicans much worse than the problem of lower Democratic turnout.
This isn't to say that lower Democratic turnout isn't a problem, because it is. Also, this isn't to say that Democrats will appeal to those voters who have currently moved over to the GOP will be brought back by centrism. There is simply no evidence of that, and it is far more likely that improving economic conditions would do much more to bring them back into the fold than any abstract ideological maneuver.
What this data does indicate that it is wrongheaded to blame current Democratic electoral problems mainly on a failure to "excite the base." Even if Democrats brought all 2008 voters back to the booths in 2010, they would still be facing significant losses. To prevent any losses, they must hold together their entire 2008 coalition, which means bringing 2008 Democratic voters who are currently favoring Republicans back into the fold. Short of a remarkable economic recovery that few economists are predicting, it is hard to imagine at this can be done in its entirety. Democrats are in charge, things suck, and so they are inevitably going to lose voters both to apathy and to the opposition party.
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