Two recent Democracy Corps polls present counter-intuitive findings about the nature of "drop-off voters" (that is, people who voted in 2008 but who are unlikely to vote in 2010). According to the polls, those who voted in 2008, but who are unlikely to vote in 2010, are much more positive about the direction of the country than people who are likely to vote in 2010.
This finding is important, because it damages a theory, prevalent in progressive circles, that drop-off voters are motivated primarily by a growing cynicism with the failure of Democrats to deliver on sweeping change. Here are the numbers:
Democracy Corps, January Q.10 Generally speaking, do you think that things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?
Likely Voters
Drop off Voters
Right Direction
36%
45%
Wrong Track
58%
43%
Net
-21%
+2%
Democracy Corps, November Q.10 Generally speaking, do you think that things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track?
Likely Voters
Drop off Voters
Right Direction
35%
42%
Wrong Track
58%
50%
Net
-23%
-8%
(The sub-sample of drop-off voters is small in both polls (133 in January, 125 in November). As such, it has a large margin or error of about plus or minus 8.5%.
However, margin of error can break both ways, and the odds or a poll erring closer to its published, topline numbers are higher than the odds of a poll erring toward the outer boundaries of its margin of error. As such, even with that 8.5% margin of error, there is a very high probability that drop-off voters have a more positive opinion about the direction of the country than likely voters.)
As that's not all. As I discuss in the extended entry, drop-off voters also have a more favorable view of their incumbent member of Congress, and are less likely to reject the two-party system than likely voters. Plus, they like President Obama, Democrats, and the health care bill.
Even beyond the direction of the country numbers, there are more signs pointing against the "cynicism for failing to deliver on change" theory. According to these two polls, drop-off voters have a more positive view of their incumbent members of Congress than likely voters. Also, drop-off voters are less likely to say that neither party represents their values. Further, drop-off voters are less likely to support third-party candidates in hypothetical polls about 2012 (3% Nader, 5% Dobbs) than are likely voters (4% Nader, 6% Dobbs).
Drop-off voters like Democrats, too. They approve of President Obama's job performance (61%-33% across the two polls) more than likely voters (48%-47%). Compared to likely voters, drop-offs have a more positive view of the Democratic Party in every single category the polls measured. In fact, they even like the health care bill by a 52%-35% margin, while likely voters oppose it by a 39%-55%.
In summary, compared to likely voters, drop-off voters have a much more positive view about the direction of the country, a more favorable view of their incumbent member of Congress, and are less likely to reject the two-party system. This is hardly a group growing cynical with the system in general. Oh, and they like President Obama, Democrats, and the health care bill.
****
If we are going to advance progressive causes, we need to do so with accurate information. Inaccurate theories about the nature of the electorate can lead to lost and ineffective campaigns. I pursue these studies not to argue against pursuing left-wing causes, but rather to find the best means of achieving them.
The numbers presented here make it very difficult to argue that the primary reason Democrats are less likely to vote in 2010 is because of growing cynicism about the country, President Obama and the Democratic Party. Surely there are some (former) voters like that, but they do not appear to dominate the the drop-off group.
It would be a mistake to attribute any single motivation to drop-off voters, and multiple causes are probably at work. In fact, as I discuss in an article later today, there is also the strong possibility that there is nothing Democrats can do to motivate the base beyond current levels. Stay tuned.
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