Projected 2010 Senate: Democrats 54-46 (assuming no caucus switches)
News
Illinois primary tonight. The Illinois primary is tonight. For our purposes at Open Left, the Democratic Senate primary is the featured matchup. It is likely that either Alexis Giannoulisor David Hoffman will win. Giannoulis has long been the frontrunner, and is perhaps the more lefty candidate. However he has recently been beset with a banking scandal, is spinning his wheels in the polls and, even before the scandal, trailed Hoffman badly among people who know both candidates. As such, Giannoulis's polling advantage is probably a mirage.
Arkansas--Blanche Lincoln is toast. I hope Blanche Lincoln enjoyed her time in the Senate, because it will end in less than a year. New Arkansas polling from PPP put her down 23 points to forthcoming challenger John Boozman. Rasmussen has her down by 19%. At this point, running a primary challenger against Blanche Lincoln has more to do with electability than anything else. Given her deficit, there is no real point or possibility of pushing her to the left. She is done.
Florida--Charlie Crist is also toast. As the charts in the extended entry show, Marco Rubio has taken a substantial, 7.2% lead on Charlie Crist in the Florida Republican primary. It is hard to see any conceivable way that an incumbent comes back from such a deficit, given the extremely pro-Rubio trendlines. This is a political environment where being in prominent, elected office is bad for a campaign.
It is also worth noting that Crist's demise does not help presumptive Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek at all. Meek currently trails Rubio by 11.8%, compared to his 10.2% deficit against Crist. IT is difficult for me to see how Meek overcomes that sort of deficit, given the current political environment and strong, pro-Rubio trendlines. Florida is rapidly moving out of play.
Massachusetts--Scott Brown to be sworn in on February 11th. Scott Brown will be sworn in on Friday, February 11th, at 12:45 p.m. Given that Democrats only reached 60, active, voting Senators on Friday, September 25th, at 3:30 p.m., that means the Democratic supermajority for 138 days, 21 hours, and 15 minutes. Hope they enjoyed it because, as the forecast shows in the extended entry, it won't be coming back anytime soon.
Complete forecast charts can be found in the extended entry.
* = Because they caucus with Senate Democrats, Independents Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman are considered Democrats
The 15 currently competitive Senate campaigns ("Competitive" is defined as campaigns where incumbent party currently leads by 18% or less in current polling among announced candidates) Democrats: 3.65 (4)
Republicans: 11.35 (11)
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