Yet another Senate update, yet more trouble for Democrats

by: Chris Bowers

Wed Feb 03, 2010 at 16:05


Following up on last night's Illinois primary, Republican nominee Mark Kirk releases an internal poll showing up ahead by 12% against Democratic nominee Alexis Giannoulias:

Magellan Strategies for Mark Kirk (R)
2/2/10; 885 likely voters, 3.3% margin of error
Kirk: 47%
Giannoulias: 35%

Now, because this is an internal poll, and was conducted on only one night, many people will be prone to doubt it.  However, this is the first poll to be released since the banking scandal around Giannoulias broke, making it entirely possible that the campaign has changed dramtically.  Further, Charles Franklin has previous noted that internal polls favor the candidate who purchased them by an average of 5%.  Even with that deviation in mind, it would not be surprising in the slightest that Giannoulias has taken a huge hit with the general voting population as a result of the scandal.

While we should wait for more polls to draw any conclusions, this seems to suggest the worst fears of those who thought Giannoulias became a severely damaged candidate from the banking scandal were warranted.  Now, Illinois is up from grabs, threatening to become a second Massachusetts.

Also, it had previously escaped my notice that there is an Indiana poll featuring Evan Bayh versus an announced Republican candidate, John Hostettler.  That poll shows Bayh leading by only 3%, 44%-41%.  No word on what polling will look like with newly announced Republican Dan Coates in the campaign.

With both the Indiana and Illinois polls in mind, here is a sidecar update to yesterday's the Senate forecast:

Senate sidecar update, February 3rd
State Democrat Republican Margin Dem Win %
New York Gillibrand Blakeman D 19.5 100%
Indiana Bayh Hostettler D 3.0 83%
Illinois Giannoulias Kirk R 0.3 45%
The New York campaign is included in this chart, but will not appear in the overall forecast because it is not quite close enough (I only forecast campaigns where the incumbent part leads by less than 18.50%).

Senate forecast overview
Democrats* Republicans
Not up for election 41 23
Currently safe 8 12
Sub-total 49 35
Current polling 3.93 12.07
Projected total 53 47
* = Because they caucus with Senate Democrats, Independents Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman are considered Democrats

This sidecar update drops Democrats down to a projected 53 seats after 2010, equaling their lowest point in the forecast.  It also opens the door, ever so slightly, to the prospect of Republicans actually taking control of the Senate after 2010.  With only 49 safe Democrats seats, and with big potential Republican recruits still possible in Wisconsin (Tommy Thompson) and New York (George Pataki), Republicans may yet control the Senate in 2011-2012.  Even Washington State may yet enter the realm of competitive campaigns, depending on Republican recruiting there.

Chris Bowers :: Yet another Senate update, yet more trouble for Democrats

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Yet another Senate update, yet more trouble for Democrats | 25 comments
Aren't polls based on one night's polling (0.00 / 0)
considered meaningless?  
I haven't seen a study showing that (0.00 / 0)
But if there was one, I would be happy to reconsider.

It has a large sample size.  And Rasmussen does almost all their state polling on one-night samples.  Their results are usually pretty accurate.

[ Parent ]
but it's from election day? (0.00 / 0)
That's really strange.


New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.
[ Parent ]
The vast majority of (4.00 / 1)
Rasmussen's state polling on elections is for one day.

Rasmussen's record on state polling is pretty good over the last few cycles, though it wasn't as good in '08 as it was earlier.

[ Parent ]
Thanks. I just remember reading that somewhere (0.00 / 0)
Never bothered to determine if it is true.  
[ Parent ]
Also... (4.00 / 1)
If it hits 50/50 or even 51/49, I'd expect Lieberman to flip to the Repubs...
That'd mean giving up his chairmanship (0.00 / 0)
If it's 51-49, look for Ben Nelson and him to flip together.  If anything, Nelson needs to join the Republicans more than Lieberman, if he wants to survive reelection in 2012.  Lieberman is screwed for reelection no matter who he joins; I predict he retires in 2012 assuming liberals put up a halfway-decent candidate.

Landrieu is also a potential defector.  She may very well lose in 2014 if she runs as a Democrat.

[ Parent ]
With 53 seats Lieberman can play both sides. (0.00 / 0)
He's got nothing being part of the 47 and while they'd welcome him to switch, after it became known that they nixed him as McCain's running mate he won't have near as much power as he has now.

And after Obama gave him more kudos in the Dems meeting the Senate is likely out of real Democratic control, for a hell of a long time.

I never went this far but after watching Obam show such respect to the ultra - Moderates and to the Republicans specifically yet never showing one drop of respect or interest to please the remaining Democrats who brought him to power I now give him all the credit for personally destroying the Democratic party majorities, and further turning the Senate into a body of back-stabbing sycophants.

I've grow so disgusted as he leans so far right, I will only direct all money and effort towards replacing all of them.
To quote a twisted version of an old Persian saying, I'd rather support the Independent or Republican I know, than a Democrat so easily corrupted.    


Nationalism is not the same thing as terrorism, and an adversary is not the same thing as an enemy.

[ Parent ]
Meh... (0.00 / 0)
I'd wait to see more... More important at this point is the fact that it was taken before the primary.

Also, nice that I get to see Mark Kirk's ugly mug next to this post talking about "Taking Back Illinois"... Fantastic.

Lol (0.00 / 0)
I wonder how many Kirk voters they're hoping to recruit off of Open Left.
[ Parent ]
We're all going to click several times a day, right? (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
re: poll (0.00 / 0)
However, this is the first poll to be released since the banking scandal around Giannoulias broke

what are you talkin' about chris?

the banking scandal isn't something new

I am not sure of the details but there was a new development in the week leading up to the election. (0.00 / 0)
However, you're right, this was a brewing scandal.

sTiVo's rule: Just because YOU "wouldn't put it past 'em" doesn't prove that THEY did it.
[ Parent ]
boggles the mind no? (0.00 / 0)
the banking "scandal" has been with us for some time now.
[ Parent ]
Vote Lealan Jones, the green party candidate. (0.00 / 0)
for the Illinois Senate race.  Boy will that be a stick in the eye of the Republicans and the Republicrats!

http://www.truthdig.com/report...

My blog  

My gut instinct as an Illinois resident (0.00 / 0)
is that Gianoullias has his work cut out for him.  

Kirk is a strong candidate for an Illinois Republican (consider that Obama had NO serious opponent in 2004).  He's a "moderate", not a tea-partier, and the ultraright Republicans have been getting the shit kicked out of them in general elections here for years.  So this is "something new".

And let's not forget the Blagojevich embarrassment.

Hoffman would have faced a tough fight on this basis alone.

Gianoullias, with this scandal hanging over him may be damaged goods and have even more troubles.  On the other hand, if this banking scandal goes away or turns out to be not much, then he's potentially a more dynamic and more liberal opponent than Hoffman would have been.  But that's a big if and at best, he's still a friggin' banker.

So your pessimism is entirely warranted.  If the economy does not turn around soon, this looks like a Republican year.

sTiVo's rule: Just because YOU "wouldn't put it past 'em" doesn't prove that THEY did it.

Well as I've said before (0.00 / 0)
here, it's more important that our candidate has the political skills to deflect the Republican character attacks that will come his way no matter how clean his record is.
[ Parent ]
I agree (0.00 / 0)


sTiVo's rule: Just because YOU "wouldn't put it past 'em" doesn't prove that THEY did it.
[ Parent ]
Call him Alexi (0.00 / 0)
Much easier to spell than his last name!
[ Parent ]
G-I-A-N-N-O-U-L-I-A-S (0.00 / 0)
Two n's, one l.  Though I do think all those a's, n's, l's, and i's packed closely together make the name a headache to read as well as to spell.

Now here's my question: How do you pronounce his name?  My guess is Juh-NOO-lee-uhs.

[ Parent ]
I think any GE poll taken right around a contested primary (0.00 / 0)
should be taken with a large grain of salt.  The primary losers' voters havn't gotten over the loss yet, and probably have not committed to backing the winner.
What Progressives had to do (0.00 / 0)
2008: Execute a holding action by electing Democrats

2009: Gather forces to dethrone current elites, or at least prevent the GOP from reannealing the Ron Paul types

Good job in 2008; disaster in 2009.

Now it's harvest time.

1. We will suffer from a rightward lurch of the neolib-neocon machine.

2. America and the world will resuffer a Bush-like decline.

3. Eventually we will be able to start over from where we were in 2006 (Crashing the Gates, Growing Liberalism, Uprising, and all that), at a terrible cost, of course. My guess is 2014.

4. We can start governing again, in 2017.

If by 2017 we haven't made serious ground on Constitutional / Election reform, it will all be for naught. Systemic change, folks. Not a change of personnel.

Alexi is engaged (0.00 / 0)
Last night was the first time I heard of that. I believe it's a help. Hoffman made it part of his "appeal" that he has a wife and child. Nothing like being a snobby parent, eh? Alexi has been strongly supported by women, judging by a recent fundraiser at Carnevale in Chicago.

Here is the Issues page from his website.

I'd wait for more polls to come out for IL (0.00 / 0)
before I start panicking.

I'd love it if Coats could beat Bayh.  But Bayh is popular and has lots of money; Coats has basically nothing.

Oh, and for DE Chris Coons is in.

Kirk's financial disclosures tell a lot about him (0.00 / 0)
Kirk raised more than $5 million in 2008, most of it from retirees, but also from Illinois' pharmaceutical firms in the 10th District.

He's already raised $4.8 so far for the Senate race. I'd like to know who Magellan Strategies is, and I'd like to know more about The Patterson Group, who provided $2.6 million worth of campaign advertising in 2008.

Yet another Senate update, yet more trouble for Democrats | 25 comments
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