There are a lot of clever-sounding explanations for the declining approval ratings and political fortunes of President Obama and the Democratic Party. For example, Edward Luce and Steve Clemmons take aim at President Obama consulting a narrow group of Chicago-based advisors. Another example comes from Zach Exley, who proposes that the center-left isn't articulating as coherent a worldview at Glen Beck and the tea partiers (and no, he isn't being snarky). Tim Dickinson offers up a third explanation, arguing that Organizing for America should have become a more energetic outsider organization, rather than being brought under the auspices of the DNC.
These explanations are all thought-provoking. They also strive very hard to ignore the galatically obvious reason for the decline in President Obama's misfortunes: the rapid rise in unemployment. Over the past sixty years, rapid, 12-month increases in unemployment have caused five other Presidents to suffer rapid declines in approval rating.
Presidential approval declines during rapid 12-month unemployment increases, 1957-2010
| President |
Period |
Unemployment |
Presidential Net Approval |
| Eisenhower |
Apr 57-Apr 58 |
Plus 3.5% |
Minus 26% |
| Nixon |
Dec 69-Dec 70 |
Plus 2.6% |
Minus 18% |
| Ford |
Sep 74-Sep 75 |
Plus 2.5% |
Minus 30% |
| Reagan |
Jul 81-Jul 82 |
Plus 2.6% |
Minus 35% |
| Bush Jr. |
Nov 07-Nov 08 |
Plus 2.2% |
Minus 14% |
|
Pre-2009 Mean |
Plus 2.7% |
Minus 25% |
| Obama |
Jan 09-Jan 10 |
Plus 2.0% |
Minus 37% |
Compared to the five previous occasions where a President suffered significant declines in approval ratings during a rapid 12-month increase in unemployment, Obama's drop is actually pretty severe. However, it is reasonably safe to assume that this is because his approval was inflated in January of 2009, when he was inaugurated. All Presidents suffer a decline in approval ratings from their peak immediately following inauguration. The combination of the natural post-inauguration decline and the rapid increase in unemployment did the trick.
Since 1957, there have been three instances where a President did not suffer a sharp drop in approval rating during a 12-month period of rapid increasing unemployment. Here they are:
Presidential approval improvements during rapid 12-month unemployment increases, 1957-2010
It is pretty easy to determine what separated these three periods from the six listed in the first chart. In every case, there was a major foreign crisis that led the country to rally around the President. The Iran hostage crisis began on November 45th, 1979. The first Persian Gulf war lasted from August of 1990 through February of 1991. And, of course, the attacks of September 11th took place in September of 2001.
All of this suggests that unless a major foreign policy crisis occurs, any President will suffer a severe decline in approval ratings during a year when unemployment increases rapidly. While nine data points is an admittedly small sample size, the rationale behind it is so intuitive that it is very hard not to believe it.
That isn't to say that there is no problem with President Obama consulting with a close circle of mainly Chicago-based advisors, with the lack of aggression in Organizing for America, or that the American center-left has failed to articulate a cohesive, compelling worldview. However, identifying those problems as the main cause of the current electoral trouble facing the Obama administration and the Democratic Party is a lot like thinking that the main problem facing travelers on the Titanic is the slippery deck.
Democrats and the Obama administration would only been in a significantly improved political position if they had implemented policies that would have resulted in a dramatically different employment picture. Is there a different set of advisors, a different organizing technique, or different messaging that would have resulted in economic policy that would have turned the employment picture around? That is the question that needs to be asked about current political and electoral difficulties for Democrats, not whether Obama's advisers are all from Chicago or not.
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