Projected 2010 Senate: Democrats 53-47 (assuming no caucus switches)
Democrats continue their downward spiral in the Senate forecast, reaching their lowest point to date. Right now, Democrats are forecasted to win only 52.63 seats, and there hasn't been upward movement in a while.
One positive sign is that Senate Democrats are increasingly warming to the possibility of destroying the filibuster. Today, after the filibuster of a routine nominee, Senators Leahy and Levin signaled their openness to filibuster reform:
"I'm in my thirty-sixth year. I've never seen anything like it," said Judiciary Committee Chairman Pat Leahy (D-Vt.), noting that no previous Republican Senate leader would have allowed his party to filibuster such a routine nomination.
Leahy said that the overuse of filibusters by the GOP was leading Democrats to consider ways to modify it.
Sen. Carl Levin (D-Mich.), another long-serving member, said that abuse of the filibuster is unsustainable. "I think it will either fall of its own weight -- it should fall of its own weight -- or it will fall after some massive conflict on the floor, which has happened in the past where there have been rulings from the chair that have led to reform," Levin told the Huffington Post, adding that the filibuster should be restricted to major issues.
Of course, Democrats will have to maintain control of the Senate in order to destroy the filibuster (it can be done on the first say the Senate is in session next year, with only 50 votes plus the Vice-President). As the Senate chart shows in the extended entry, they still have a good chance to do so, barring significant downward movement in the California, Indiana, Missouri and Wisconsin Senate campaigns.
* = Because they caucus with Senate Democrats, Independents Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman are considered Democrats
The 16 Senate campaigns that might switch partisan control of seat ("Competitive" is defined as campaigns where incumbent party currently leads by 18% or less in current polling among announced candidates) Democrats: 3.63 (4)
Republicans: 12.37 (12)