All 2010 House district polls

by: Chris Bowers

Thu Feb 11, 2010 at 19:30


Earlier today I offered a look at the current state of open seats in the House.  Now, here is a look at polling in the House.

Here is a complete list of general election trial heat polls (no primaries, no generic ballots) for 2010 House campaigns.  Only polls featuring two announced candidates are included:

Republican-held seats
Projected Democratic pickups: 2.5
District Democrat Republican
DE-AL Carney 47 24 Cullis
FL-12 Edwards 46 42 Ross
SC-01 Miller 44 43 Wilson
OH-02 Krikorian 40.0 45.3 Schmidt
AK-AL Crawford 34 49 Young
MN-06 Reed 37 53 Bachmann
MN-06 Clark 37 55 Bachmann
PA-15 Callahan 27 53 Dent

Democratic-held seats
Projected Republican pickups: 8.5
District Democrat Republican
OH-01 Driehaus 39 56 Chabot
MD-01 Kratovil 39 52 Harris
MI-07 Schauer 40 50 Walberg
NH-01 Shea-Porter 33 43 Guinta
NH-01 Shea-Porter 32 36 Bestani
NH-01 Shea-Porter 33 36 Ashooh
NH-02 Kustner 28 39 Bass
NH-02 Kustner 25 28 Horn
NH-02 Swett 30 37 Bass
NH-02 Swett 30 26 Horn
IN-09 Hill 41 49 Sodrel
NV-03 Titus 40 40 Heck
NV-03 Titus 48 32 Lauer
VA-05 Perriello 44 44 Hurt
VA-05 Perriello 45 37 McKelvey
VA-05 Perriello 44 34 Verga
CO-03 Salazar 46 44 Tipton
SC-05 Spratt 46 39 Mulvaney
SC-05 Spratt 46 37 Spencer
SD-AL Herseth-Sandlin 46 39 Nelson
SC-05 Sandlin 52 31 Curd
NY-01 Bishop 46.5 35.5 Altschuler
NC-08 Kissell 54 38 D'Annunzio
NC-08 Kissell 55 37 Huddleston
ND-AL Pomeroy 46 24 Cramer
HI-01* Case 37 17 Djou
* = Two Democrats and one Republican are running in a single, first past the post election.  Democrat Colleen Hanabusa also has 25%.

Overall, these polls show Republicans gaining a net of six seats.  That is on top of the six seats projected from open seats, and does not include any non-open seat districts not listed here.  Further, given that Delaware at large is projected as a Democratic pickup both in this post and the post earlier today, it is actually a net Republican pickup of 13.  They need 40 in order to retake the House.

Tomorrow, as I continue to move closer to producing an overall House forecast, I will be looking at incumbents who are endangered in districts where no polling has been conducted.  Almost all of these endangered incumbents will be Democrats.  

Chris Bowers :: All 2010 House district polls

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we need the economy to improve (0.00 / 0)
because if the election were held today, I think the GOP would take back the House.

The DCCC will have the resources to outspend the NRCC, but the pro-Republican corporate spending will more than outweigh that.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.


FL-12 (4.00 / 1)
What made you poll the Blue Dog shill Lori Edwards as the Democratic candidate? Just because the Blue Dogs have forced-- literally-- the DCCC to endorse her candidacy that doesn't make her the candidate of Democrats in FL-12. The grassroots candidate is Doug Tudor.

No poll with Tudor (n/t) (0.00 / 0)


[ Parent ]
Lori Edwards is barely running a campaign (0.00 / 0)
She thinks she's been blessed by the DCCC and doesn't need to do more.  I've heard she can't (or won't) answer any questions on issues.

Tudor is the ideal progressive candidate but has been cut out of the party fundraising network.  The PCCC could be a big help with his campaign.


[ Parent ]
you get what you pay for (0.00 / 0)
Lori Edwards paid for that poll. Tudor can release his own polls if he likes. I don't think Chris can afford to conduct many polls.  

New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.

[ Parent ]
ugh on Case winning in HI-1 (0.00 / 0)
Though I suppose both Democrats must also be running in a regular primary, right?


New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.

here's the HI-1 poll for November (0.00 / 0)
http://www.starbulletin.com/ne...

Regardless of the outcome of any special election to fill Abercrombie's seat, 52 percent of likely voters in the 1st Congressional District say they would pick former U.S. Rep. Ed Case, with 21 percent for City Councilman Charles Djou and 27 percent undecided.

State Sen. Colleen Hanabusa, the other Democrat in the race, is favored over Djou by a margin of 43 percent to 36 percent, with 21 percent undecided.



New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.


[ Parent ]
HI-1 presents us with an interesting opportunity (4.00 / 1)
Hanabusa can really distinguish herself by running a strong, true liberal/progressive campaign, and try to pull as many liberal votes away from Case as possible.  That'll leave Case and Djou fighting over the moderate/conservative votes and Hanabusa wins.

[ Parent ]
I hadn't realized (0.00 / 0)
There's talk of saving money by not having the special election until September even though Abercrombie resigns at the end of this month and the election should be in May. I bet Pelosi could use that extra vote sometime this summer.

 

New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.


[ Parent ]
Yeah, we're too poor for democracy (0.00 / 0)
Why have any elections at all?  They cost money and we can't afford them!  Dictatorship is so much cheaper.

[ Parent ]
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