Senate Forecast, "sidecar update," February 11th

by: Chris Bowers

Thu Feb 11, 2010 at 21:00

• February 11 update: Democratic loss of 6.46 seats (6, for rounding purposes)
  
• Change from Feb 09: Democrats down 0.09 seats
  
• Projected 2010 Senate: Democrats 53-47 (assuming no caucus switches)

Tonight's Senate forecast update features new polls from Indiana, Missouri and New Hampshire (and a second from New Hampshire):

State	Democrat	Republican	Margin	Current Dem Win %
Indiana	Bayh	Hostettler	D 8.0	98%
IN	Bayh	Stutzman	D 12.0	100%
Missouri	Carnahan	Blunt*	R 1.8	25%
New Hampshire	Hodes*	Ayotte	R 7.8	3%
NH	Hodes*	Lamontagne	D 5.2	94%
NH	R Primary	Ayotte	+20.5

* = Faces primary, but heavy favorite

Amusingly, Dan Coats is too far behind in Indiana (20%) to even be mentioned in the forecast.

Senate forecast overview

	Democrats*	Republicans
Not up for election	41	23
Incumbent party safe	8	12
Sub-total	49	35
Current polling	3.54	12.46
Projected total	53	47

* = Because they caucus with Senate Democrats, Independents Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman are considered Democrats

Republicans are on the brink of picking up another seat in the forecast.  They need to a gain of 0.05 to do it.