President Obama's 0.4% State of the Union bounce

by: Chris Bowers

Fri Feb 12, 2010 at 15:15


Some individual polls, such as Gallup, have shown President Obama enjoying a smallish, 3% bounce from his State of the Union speech.  However, Pollster.com's wide view of the entire polling universe shows the bounce to be even smaller--only 0.4%.

Explanatory charts and numbers in the extended entry.

Chris Bowers :: President Obama's 0.4% State of the Union bounce

Here is the Pollster.com job approval chart for President Obama, from January 27th through February 11th (yesterday):


President Obama went from a net job approval of +0.2% on the day of the State of the Union to a net approval of 0.6% yesterday.  Looking at the same chart with a 0-100% range, instead of the above chart's 45-50% range, puts the size of this bounce in perspective:


Basically, since the State of the Union address, there has been no change in President Obama's approval rating at all.  This fits with, or is even a slight improvement on, historic trends:

The average "bounce" across 24 State of the Union speeches is actually negative, although essentially zero.

Apart from getting prime-time space for politics on network television, it kind of makes you wonder why the State of the Union has become such a major event.


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It would help if he actually followed up his pretty words (4.00 / 6)
with actual tangible action, like pressuring congress to put some decent bills on his desk ASAP, and taking the lead on some of these issues, like HCR and financial regulation. The public isn't fooled by sternly-worded and/or inspirational speeches at this point. It wants action and results, and sees through the bloviation. Only Obama and his Gang Of Four inner circle doesn't seem to get that--or, perhaps, prefers to pretend not to get that, as he keeps ducking his responsibilities and avoiding fulfilling on his many promises and kids himself that words equal action. Sure, the miserable economy isn't helping things, but a lot of his sinking numbers are due to his own actions--or lack thereof. If he doesn't know that, and doesn't intend to do something about it, then he's a fool

"Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" -- Alexander Hamilton

I don't believe the economy would be so miserable if (4.00 / 3)
his economic policy was more progressive.  

My blog  

[ Parent ]
Indeed. The economic situation isn't an external problem. (4.00 / 2)
And the employment outlook could be much better if Obama would have pushed Congress for creating a stronger  stimulus bill, with more money being used and with a bigger emphasis on direct job creating by the government. Obama failed to make that stand, so he shares the blame for the weak economy now.

[ Parent ]
I think it bought him a little time, (4.00 / 1)
but that doesn't necessarily translate into approval. He told us to still expect change. For some of the base, that probably got him some more patience. Real change in approval will come when and if he follows up by getting shit done. IOW, when he switches from "bipartisan" to "by hook or by crook".

They do reveal several we-told-you-so trends. (4.00 / 2)
Looking at the preceding months data, both polls do show that in spite of multiple efforts to push bi-partisanship, the numbers of those who've disapproved of Obama in the past continue to grow, not decrease, and the numbers of those who once approved of him - that'd be us - continue to decline.

I'd say that proves both opponents constituents want to quit this pussy-footin' around have a showdown, once and for all. The best man wins the pot - and the respect of most voters.

Feb. 25th may be his High-Noon.

Nationalism is not the same thing as terrorism, and an adversary is not the same thing as an enemy.


Hey, Chris... (0.00 / 0)
...how come dailyKos always shows Obama's approval rating at 5 or 6 points higher than the pollster.com average? This has been going on for at least three or four months now. Are they padding Obama's numbers?

Kos doesn't track job approval... (4.00 / 2)
Just "favorables".

[ Parent ]
Not like he used the momentum from it... (4.00 / 2)
To do anything... He did have a nice size bounce and probably could've just used his immediate momentum to do... SOMETHING, but he instead did nothing.  Just a "Senate, do something".

Not like he used the momentum from it... (0.00 / 0)
To do anything... He did have a nice size bounce and probably could've just used his immediate momentum to do... SOMETHING, but he instead did nothing.  Just a "Senate, do something".

Public Opinion isn't the issue (0.00 / 0)
Apart from getting prime-time space for politics on network television, it kind of makes you wonder why the State of the Union has become such a major event.

Your closing here, I think, is based on a false assumption - that public opinion usually determines significance.  But generally speaking, public opinion does not matter. Public opinion alone can't pressure the government into doing anything. Many things are of major concern to the public that our politics ignores - on the other hand, the Village takes many things very seriously that the public is unconcerned with. The state of the union's significance derives from elite political dynamics, not from public opinion dynamics.

(I am not saying that public opinion is never important - just that it isn't necessarily so. It matters when it is mobilized. I am also not saying that it shouldn't be important - I am making an empirical claim, not a normative one.)

Politics is the art of the possible, but that means you have to think about changing what is possible, not that you have to accept it in perpetuity.


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