IN-Sen: Evan Bayh set to retire

by: Chris Bowers

Mon Feb 15, 2010 at 11:01


Looks like an open seat in Indiana:

Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) will not seek a 3rd term in the Senate next year, according to a Dem source, handing Dems yet another setback as they struggle to salvage their damaged ship.

Bayh, elected statewide 5 times, will become the 5th Senate Dem not to seek another term. His decision to step aside , first reported by The Fix and confirmed to Hotline OnCall, creates an open seat in IN, a usually-red state that broke the mold in '08 by voting narrowly for Pres. Obama.

Bayh actually had a pretty solid lead on his various Republican challengers, so this is something of a surprise.  It is also another blow to Democratic Senate hopes in November.  Bayh, for all the frustration he caused progressives, was part of a well-known family institution in Indiana, and as such was the best Democratic bet to keep the seat.

It is going to be much more difficult for Democrats to keep this seat, now.  Given that Bayh was currently listed at a 98% chance to retain the seat, it will also push the projected Democratic Senate total for 2011 down to only 52 seats.

Chris Bowers :: IN-Sen: Evan Bayh set to retire

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IN-Sen: Evan Bayh set to retire | 43 comments
Well, but should progressives mourn his retirement? (0.00 / 0)
I seem to remember that you argued it would be good to get rid of him, or not?
Bayh was better than many conservadems... (0.00 / 0)
....he did most of his obstruction in private, and in the end would be a team player.

This is quite strange... It could be that he just didn't want to fight for his seat, or maybe he did some internal poling that wasn't as favorable as the polling we've seen.

But, like a typical conservadem, he screws us hard with the filing deadline only days away.

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

[ Parent ]
Those suspicions of him selling out aren't that farfetched. (0.00 / 0)
That wouldn't be out of character for him, right? The other folks are ight, let's see which confy job he gets for this.
[ Parent ]
It is not good to lose conservadems from red states (4.00 / 2)
and Indiana is a redstate.

The real problem is when you have blue dogs or Republicans from deep blue states.  There are three, Lieberman, Collins and Snowe who are the difference in getting cloture on a public option.

[ Parent ]
And, the Filing Deadline for this Senate Race is Friday (4.00 / 2)

...in four days.  There is something fishy here.
Well, it could be worse. He could have retired next Saturday. (4.00 / 5)
But, yeah, this raises suspicions that he wanted to give the rethuglicans the best chance to win, without making it totally obvious.  But he sure is aware that four days are an awful short time to find a Dem both willing to candidate and popular enough to win this one.

Shows that Bayh is a real traitor to his party, making even his retirement a huge problem for the Dems. I hope he moves to Florida for retirement, and goes fishing in a gator infested area!

[ Parent ]
Would that have been worse? (0.00 / 0)
Wouldn't it have made it easier to find a replacement that way 'cos he'd have to remove his name off the ballot?

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!
[ Parent ]
I'm not sure about the rules in Florida. (0.00 / 0)
And I'm not sure if his name can be removed from the ballot when retiring after the deadline. And even if it can be, how to get a replacement into his slot?

Btw, does anybody remember the traitor who switched parties only hours before the deadline? That was Lamar Alexander, right?

[ Parent ]
Oops, no, RODNEY Alexander! (0.00 / 0)
Sry, my lousy memory again...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R...
[ Parent ]
Got some info... (4.00 / 1)
albeit secondhand.  If no candidate runs, then the party gets to pick a candidate on its own.  Not sure if that's before or after the primary.

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!
[ Parent ]
TPM now confirms that analysis.... (0.00 / 0)
We actually have a semi-decent bench here... against a weak person like Coats, we could still pull this out, and with a much better person than the coward Bayh.

The scary thing is that a move like this might encourage folk like Thompson or Patacki out of retirement...

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

[ Parent ]
who are the choices for the Dems? (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
They have a few... (4.00 / 1)
A former Indy mayor and a former Dem chair on the low end... Rep. Ellsworth (icky) and Baron Hill (less icky) on the top end.

With Coates being damaged so heavily, this really is anyone's ballgame.  Not a guaranteed loss as has been reported, but it's also not a "likely D" anymore.

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

[ Parent ]
thanks for the insight into the particular of the state (0.00 / 0)
is there anyone who is a true moderate rather than conservative in the state since I am assuming a progressive has no change in hell?
[ Parent ]
Baron Hill has been pro health care reform... (4.00 / 1)
...from the beginning and has not waffled or backed down, which is surprising.  He also was pro public option, albeit the negotiated rates one.  Still, he has stayed strong and is still staying strong, advocating passing a comprehensive bill.

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!
[ Parent ]
Interesting, again thanks. (4.00 / 1)
It would be great if he ran as a strong moderate with clear values to test the assumption that one has to be a centrist to win.  
[ Parent ]
From what I hear (0.00 / 0)
The party chair is a Bayh lackey, as well, so if it's something of a unilateral decision, then Bayh essentially gets to pick his replacement.


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[ Parent ]
There is a real chance (4.00 / 1)
that the GOP can take the Senate.  To do that, they need to win two of Wisconsin, California, Washington or New York and sweep the other 14 states that Chris marks as competitive.  To your point, Pataki would put NY in play and increase their odds significantly.  You are right to raise the possibility.

2010 looks to me like 2006 in that the field of play seems to be continually expanding.

[ Parent ]
NY is not going to be in play (4.00 / 1)
And neither is California. IN the later, there is not a viable Republican opponent right now. And Pataki is not a real threat in the long run for many reasons.  I can't speak for the other two. I just know both of those states having lived in them and following their politics.  
[ Parent ]
The last Marist poll (0.00 / 0)
has Pataki up 6 49-43 in New York.
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

Boxer leads Campell by 6 in California, 46-40 in the last three polls and by 4, 45-41 in the most recent one.

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...

If Pataki runs the evidence suggests New York is clearly in play, and with Boxer well below 50 I would argue California is already in play - particuarly if the economy does not recover.

I have lived in New York and Massachusetts.  I wouldn't have said Massachusetts was in play until Brown won.

[ Parent ]
Believe what you want (0.00 / 0)
Pataki left with an approval rating in the 30s in 2006. My point here is not that we would not have to win the seat , but that Pataki unlike brown can not recast himself so easily as a populist candidate, as would b , e required. So when you speak of evidence you only mean the polling data that he would be a threat- and not what his negatives would do in the race as people are reminded of why they disliked him in the first place.

I won't go into CA. The truth is that its a complicated state. My thesis is based more on understanding the complications of the state. The fact that the GOP has been in charge,

[ Parent ]
Well, I'm sure he filed his paperwork already... (0.00 / 0)
So, how would this work.  Would he wait to withdraw until after the deadline, allowing someone else to take his place?  I don't know how this stuff works.

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!
[ Parent ]
TPM Is Suspicious, Too (4.00 / 3)

I wonder what cushy job he is parachuting into?
agree with this (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
I'm thinking scandal (4.00 / 1)
This is just too sudden. Remember his wife is a director for Wellpoint, and his finances and friendships are necessarily tied up with the health insurance industry. Even if he has been doing everything he can to keep things on the up-and-up he might have made a mistake.
[ Parent ]
Yeah, they are not reporting that he did not even tell Reid before hand (4.00 / 1)
Something smells.  
[ Parent ]
The other alternative I can think of (0.00 / 0)
Would be some sort of serious health issue that came up in the past week.  If so, that will come out eventually.

Things You Don't Talk About in Polite Company: Religion, Politics, the Occasional Intersection of Both
[ Parent ]
agree with this (0.00 / 0)

[ Parent ]
System is broken: (0.00 / 0)
inside-the-box, left v. right, tinkering-around-the-edges is the equivalent of pouring gasoline on the fire.

But we will get another shot at this in a few years, after it gets much much worse...

Next time, try not spitting on your logical allies.

"try not spitting on your logical allies" We don't spit on you, Paul! (0.00 / 0)
But, come on, be realistic, the single reasonable libertarian on our side doesn't make that much of a difference! All the others are nuts, and would never vote Dem...
:D
[ Parent ]
It's not about a new party (0.00 / 0)
It's about using each other to win primaries in districts, for instance, where the Republican is going to win no matter what, or the Democrat is going to win no matter what thanks to sacred identity politics.

By all means, let us preserve the Holy "left-right" balance! But at least get some more Bernie Sanders / Ron Pauls in there.

Constitutional Reform also would require reaching out to people theoretically opposed to the welfare state: and we need such reform too.

The reality is that the world is heading over a cliff, all I'm saying is let's not squander the last few moments before the collapse on repeating tactics that don't work.

Look at who funds the most vocal extremists on the left and right (e.g. the Tea Party)? Why look! It's J.B. Hunt, or any one of the other wanna be Barons of the New Aristocracy!

They use the extremists to divide and conquer. It's shameful to be rolled by such simple tactics.

[ Parent ]
I have to ask (4.00 / 1)
In what reality are you living that progressives have this power that you seem to attribute to them? Name one bill that went down like you describe in which it was the "left" that blocked reform because they refused to compromise at all? Just one. And please don't list things that we both know I can refute like health care.  
[ Parent ]
I see (4.00 / 1)
Evan Bayh is retiring because there was too much left-wing criticism of him. Interesting, and entirely unsupported, theory.
[ Parent ]
No Chris, (4.00 / 1)
Evan Bayh is an ally... to the aristocracy. To think I suggested otherwise is the arrogance that is killing the possibility of life-saving reform.

I'm referring to the right-wingers who looked at 8 years of Bush and balked.

I'm referring to the people who stood with Ralph Nader in 2008 and said, hey let's join forces on the things we do agree on: an end to the "two-party" system.

I'm referring to the people fighting to keep NeoCon puppets like Beck and Palin out of the movement started by Ron Paul. I watched as many "progressives" spent 2009 arrogantly spitting on such people. Now is the harvest time. Hmmm... "progressives" claim to want to give these poor deluded whites (let's be honest) free health care and jobs, yet they hate and despise them? Folks, if you cannot get the poor white to at least give socialism a fair hearing, maybe it's your delivery that is the problem? Maybe it is the arrogance?

When you suggested that Progressives ought to back someone like Rand Paul, you were on the right track, but you backed off due to peer pressure. (remember the outrage over Jane Hamsher? A woman with a heart of gold slurred by "left" bloggers?) Rand Paul will win anyway, yet Progressives will have no claim to that victory, no success to replicate elsewhere. Nothing but ashes.

You claimed Coakley would have a chance to win, perhaps due to wishful thinking and peer pressure. Put the "poll analysis" down and get in touch with the zeitgeist, a much more accurate and forward looking barometer!

As for the arrogant echo chamber peer pressure that sways the weak-minded, I don't care. Events will continue to prove me right. 2010: the year of The Humbling. Make the most of it.

[ Parent ]
And what's your explanation for why he did not even tell Reid about this? (0.00 / 0)
And I find it ironic that you take what was a lose in MA due to the Dems failure to enact progressive reforms as a sign that liberals are not compromising with the right. Why don't you do what you just as Chris to do, but instead spend less time in DC, and more time talking to the middle class about what concerns them.  
[ Parent ]
and let's be clear (0.00 / 0)
he's doing this days apparently before filing. He out of blue announces this despite being in politics for years?

This does not pass the smell test. If I had nothing but the statement alone considering the amount of power conservative Democrats are given in the Senate, I would be questioning this, but the rest of it is just not smelling too good.

I do find your purism fascinating. You can't always get what you want, and it is all about how no one works with you. Progressives are regularly asked to capitulate at every turn. They dare to ask for one thing on the health care bill (no excise tax), and one would think we had asked the conservatives to implement socialism.

At some point up is up and down is down rather than what is being spun.  

[ Parent ]
By my calculations (4.00 / 2)
using your current odds, and giving the GOP the seat in Indiana, I calcuate the odds of the GOP winning every seat you mark as competitive except Wisconsin and California at .4497.

That would result in a 51-49 Democratic Senate.  If we assume for the moment that Massachusetts shows that what appear to be safe seats are not, and as a result give the GOP a 25% chance in California, Wisconsin and Washington, then I get the following:

Chances of a 50-50 split: 18.9%
Chances of GOP winning control: 7%

For the record, I think the GOP odds of taking the Senate are better than this.

I wouldn't call it a loss (4.00 / 1)
since with Bayh in office it's basically been a Republican seat anyway.
Well (0.00 / 0)
The interesting thing to me is how it's never "a Democratic seat" until Democrats are close to losing or gaining a majority, and then every seat suddenly becomes important. I've heard a lot of the same around Reid re "I'd rather have 58 seats and Durbin as Majority Leader". There are strong arguments on both sides, but I think just think it's interesting.


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[ Parent ]
Good riddance (0.00 / 0)
The health insurance lobby bought his vote by putting wifey on their Boards at a plush $1 M per year.  His crunch time scores swung 30 points to the right this year. Surprise, the money train will end because it depended on his vote and not his non-existent personal power.

New candidate? What about a long-time rep from a safe district like Viscloskey? A bit more progressive and no risk.  

Did Mike Pence get screwed by Bayh? (0.00 / 0)
The Republican Congressman was ahead in polls vs Bayh before deciding not to run.  If Bayh retires earlier, does Pence win the Senate seat easily, so that a later rather than earlier announcement actually increases Democratic chances of retaining?

Things You Don't Talk About in Polite Company: Religion, Politics, the Occasional Intersection of Both
Doesn't this basically hand the seat to Mike Pence? (0.00 / 0)
Yet another Obama political disaster, no doubt. I'm not sad to see Bayh go, but he should have announced this months ago. Its happening 4 days before the filing deadline sounds to me like Bayh's flipping the bird to Obama for his put-down of ConservaDems like him at that recent caucus meeting, along with his being unwilling to side with them 100% of the time (but, ironically, way more than he should have).

Will Obama finally learn that when you try to please everyone, you end up pleasing no one?

"Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" -- Alexander Hamilton

Never mind, Pence is out (0.00 / 0)
Just saw this on HuffPo:

Mike Pence declines again on Evan Bayh seat
By JAKE SHERMAN | 2/15/10 1:37 PM EST

House Republican Conference Chairman Mike Pence (R-Ind.) is out again.

After saying he was not running for Evan Bayh's Senate seat a few weeks ago, Pence was beginning to reconsider with Bayh's surprising retirement announcement Monday. But now Pence is out for good, even though the seat is now one of the strongest candidates for a Republican takeover.

After consulting with his political staff Pence announced Monday afternoon - for the second time this political season - that he is staying in the House.

There were several factors that Pence weighed in his potential run. First, he had already passed on the opportunity to run last month, citing the GOP's strong position in the House. Further, he's considered among the strongest candidates for governor of Indiana in 2012. Plus, Pence would need to gain thousands signatures by noon tomorrow for the Republican primary.

Privately, aides to Pence say he was also concerned about Bayh's $13 million in the bank, but now Pence is going to hope for a Republican takeover in the House, which could propel him into a top leadership position in that chamber. And then he could still run for governor in 2012.

Dodged a bullet there. As much I despise Bayh, I really can't stand that fascist Pence.

"Those who stand for nothing fall for anything...Mankind are forever destined to be the dupes of bold & cunning imposture" -- Alexander Hamilton

[ Parent ]
IN-Sen: Evan Bayh set to retire | 43 comments
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