Some of the chatter around Evan Bayh's exit has speculated that he is gearing up for a right-wing primary challenge to President Obama in 2012. Bayh did organize a new Senate caucus that has stalled most of President Obama's agenda, and he has $13 million in the bank.
However, it can be safely said that, unless Obama's approval rating declines sharply among Democrats, there is no such room for a right-wing primary challenge. Here is President Obama's approval rating by partisan and ideological self-identification, sorted by the percentage of each group in the 2008 Presidential primary electorate:
Obama job approval by partisan and ideological self-identification, within the Democratic primary electorate
| Ideology and Party |
% of Dem primary electorate |
Presidential Job Approval |
| Liberal Dem |
38% |
87% |
| Moderate Dem |
31% |
82% |
| Conservative Dem |
9% |
75% |
| Liberal Ind |
9% |
67% |
| Moderate Ind |
7% |
55% |
| Conservative Ind |
3% |
27% |
| Lib-Mod Rep |
2% |
31% |
| Conservative Rep |
1% |
12% |
(Source for primary electorate composition: here
Source for job approval by partisan and ideological self-ID: here and here)
This amount to an overall approval of 77% among the Democratic primary electorate. Further, only 5% of the primary electorate are self-identified conservatives who not approve of President Obama's job performance, and 10% are self-identified moderates who do not approve of President Obama's job performance.
That gives a right-wing primary challenge to President Obama only 15% of the presidential primary electorate to work with, which is less than one-fifth the percentage of the electorate that approves of President Obama's job performance. Further, it is likely that the self-identified liberals within the presidential primary electorate who do not approve of President Obama's job performance would break significantly against any such right-wing primary challenger. This makes it difficult for such a challenger to even win any delegates, much less actually mount a credible threat to President Obama's re-nomination.
President Obama is going to win the Democratic nomination in 2012, and win it easily. There won't be any other viable Democratic candidates for President until the 2016 primary season starts in late 2014.
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