Several polls worth noticing

by: Chris Bowers

Thu Feb 18, 2010 at 14:22


Rather than slamming quick hits with half a dozen entries, here are six polls released today worth noticing:

  1. Indiana Senate looks terrible for Democrats.  Both leading contenders (Evansville Mayor, Jonathan Weinzapfel, has apparently bowed out) to be the Democratic nominee in Indiana are losing by at least 10% to every potential Republican nominee, according to Rasmussen reports.  So, it looks like keeping Evan Bayh's seat will be a real longshot for Democrats.  Groovy.

    I will attempt to have a full Senate forecast up later today.   Tomorrow at the latest.

  2. New 2012 poll PPP has their latest 2012 Presidential matchups:

    Obama: 45
    Romney: 43

    Obama: 46
    Huckabee: 43

    Obama: 50
    Palin: 43

    Obama: 46
    Thune: 28

    There appears to be a strong anti-Palin vote, as President Obama's numbers go up to 50% when matched against her. Against everyone else, he is steady at 45-46%.

  3. Nevada health care poll. The PCCC / DFA / CREDO coalition that is conducting the Senate whip count on the public option has released a new poll on health care in Nevada. The key findings are what people following polls closely would expect:
    • The overall health care bill is unpopular;
    • The public option is popular;
    • Voters don't really care about process issues like reconciliation and the filibuster.
    What is means is that Democrats should get health care out of the headlines as quickly as possible (because the bill is unpopular, and they won't be helped by not passing it), that Democrats in red states won't help themselves by ditching the public option (because it is popular), and that Democrats are free to use reconciliation (because the country doesn't really care about, or understand, process).

  4. Nothing untoward about Fire Dog Lake House polls.  Nate Silver analyzes the Fire Dog Lake polls of four House districts.  He concludes that there was nothing fishy about the polls, just a significant pro-Republican House effect due to methodological decisions made by SurveyUSA (not by FDL)

    So I don't think there's anything untoward that's gone on here -- although there do appear to be some house effects in these congressional district polls resulting from methodological decisions that SurveyUSA has made.

    I am with Nate here, and I am pretty much done criticizing individual polls myself.  After my research on election forecasting showed that just taking the simple mean of all polls conducted over the last fifteen days of a campaign produced the most accurate results around, I've pretty much got a deaf ear now when it comes to complaints of bias or methodological flaws in any single poll.  Forecasting works out best when you look at them all equally, rather than sifting out polls you don't like.  Poll averaging is more accurate than any individual pollster.

  5. House ballot update. After forgetting for a few days, I have finally updated the National House Ballot again.  I am trying to get a seat by seat House forecast completed soon.  Apologies for the delay.

  6. CPAC straw poll. CPAC is holding their straw poll this weekend.  Last year, Mitt Romney won.  Four years ago, at the same point in the presidential election cycle, George Allen narrowly edged out John McCain.
A seventh poll worth looking at, but already mentioned in Quick Hits, comes from the Illinois Senate race.  According to an internal poll, Democrat Alexis Giannoulias leads by 4%.

Any other polls out there that I missed?

Chris Bowers :: Several polls worth noticing

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Several polls worth noticing | 15 comments
Indiana State Senate does not look "terrible" (0.00 / 0)
Coats has nearly 100% name recognition and is still polling under 50%, while Ellsworth is unknown to 40% of the state according to the poll.

Plus, it's rasmussen... He's giving the exact same numbers to Ellsworth and Hill which makes me suspicious that he's cooking the books to scare off some people.  I want to see some other pols confirm this before we get all panicky.

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

This poll's not an election (4.00 / 2)
poll but well worth noting.

Americans of both parties overwhelmingly oppose a Supreme Court ruling that allows corporations and unions to spend as much as they want on political campaigns, and most favor new limits on such spending, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Eight in 10 poll respondents say they oppose the high court's Jan. 21 decision to allow unfettered corporate political spending, with 65 percent "strongly" opposed. Nearly as many backed congressional action to curb the ruling, with 72 percent in favor of reinstating limits.

The poll reveals relatively little difference of opinion on the issue among Democrats (85 percent opposed to the ruling), Republicans (76 percent) and independents (81 percent).

http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

76 percent of Republicans oppose it!

It would seem to present a golden political opportunity to Democrats, who in a rational world would use this ruling not merely to pass laws offsetting it but to push public financing.

But Dems obviously will drop the ball, that's what the do, but I wonder if progressives should use this ruling to make public financing front and center.


Definitely. (4.00 / 1)
I'm as perpetually disappointed with the Dems as anyone, but where's the "make me do it" pressure coming from. The so-called Left has been spinning its wheels on process and "optics" instead of focusing on the root cause of our slide down the drain: our completely dysfunctional electoral process. Radical change in that arena should be our obsessive quest, because everything else we want follows from it.
[ Parent ]
This would be more convincing if you had not just protested... (0.00 / 0)
...the headline of my QH "CNN poll: 52% don't want Obama reelected" as if that's not almost exactly the question the poll asked. Sry, but such ridiculous nitpicking on behalf of Obama makes you look like an Obamabot. And your comment here, with its sideblow against the "so-called Left" reinforces the impression. Mybe this is only a misunderstanding, but I would like to know who exactly are the strawmen your attacking, and if you think Obama made any mistakes or false prromises at all?
[ Parent ]
I'm attacking trolls like you (2.00 / 2)
who are obsessed with destroying Obama while ignoring the root cause of our national trip down the drain: our dysfunctional electoral system. But it's so much more self-dramatizing to just whine, isn't it?
[ Parent ]
Nothing in your comment makes any sense. (0.00 / 0)
Trottel.
[ Parent ]
That silly poll to which you have assigned such significance (0.00 / 0)
CNN poll: 52% don't want Obama reelected"

is completely refuted by the polls Bowers cites above, no?

If a majority of folks don't want Obama re-elected - doesn't it stand to reason that he'd lose at least one of the virtual match-ups?

Face it, Gray, that poll you've been touting is an outlier and poorly worded BS to boot. It seems the only reason you keep bringing it up (and ignoring the polling data that refutes it) is to provide yourself a platform from which to attack the President. No skin off my nose, give 'm hell!

But, with so much other data available to do the exact same thing, I have to wonder why you are stuck on that one poll.


"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."

[ Parent ]
You want to say CNN lied? (0.00 / 0)
Fine, bring your arguments. But do you want to dispute this is news, and that the sheer fact that a leading media channel reports this is reason for concern?

And if you do, don't forget attacking Greg Sargent, a progressve blogger with much more merits than you, too!

[ Parent ]
Yes/No (0.00 / 0)
But do you want to dispute this is news, and that the sheer fact that a leading media channel reports this is reason for concern?

Yes. It is not "news" in the sense that the results from such poorly worded polls are next to meaningless.

No. The only "concern" is why a member of the M$M is pushing such useless information in the face of the kind of poll results Bowers cites.

Are you denying that the CNN results are contradicted by the results in the diary? Can you explain why I should not take the results of the polls cited above as more indicative of voter sentiments than the one asking is Obama "deserved" a second term?

Greg Sargent, or any other person, can be wrong and I'll call it as I see it. Their celebrity status is no guarantee that they are infallible.


"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."

[ Parent ]
Pls point out the problem in the wording. (0.00 / 0)
I checked, Totally straightforward. No framing in it. How can this be misunderstood, or be manipulating?

"Are you denying that the CNN results are contradicted by the results in the diary?"
Where's that effing contradiction?

[ Parent ]
This law must be challenged in court (0.00 / 0)
With such opposition in public, the time is now to get the USSC to reconsider.

I suggest that a group incorporate and start running ads that are controversial, yet non-partisan. Think "Bong Hits 4 Jesus" - but with a corporate sponsor.

Or a foreign corporation buying time to run anti-American ads.

Something to get this issue back into court, then work it up to the Supremes.

Of course, an SNL-type skit where the Justices are on leashes held by fat cats in suits, sitting on piles of money and training the "supremes" to vote correctly, might help too.

"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."

[ Parent ]
Certainly (4.00 / 2)
But there should be both.

Dems should use this to isolate Republicans in Congress and progressives should use this to push essential reforms. It's the kind of judicial overreach that could and should give birth to a movement.  

[ Parent ]
I'm very confused (0.00 / 0)
Mr. Cheney told me this morning that Obama will be a one term President.  He must have access to super-secret polls that are more accurate than these.
Maybe this one? (0.00 / 0)
http://theplumline.whorunsgov....

"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."
[ Parent ]
PPP polled NC (0.00 / 0)
with Elaine Marshall doing well against Burr.  Discussion in a Kos diary by a Marshall campaign staffer.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...

John McCain won't insure children

Several polls worth noticing | 15 comments
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