According to a recent survey by Pew, blogging is not the future of the Internet. Younger online users are already moving away from it:
Blogging has declined in popularity among both teens and young adults since 2006. Blog commenting has also dropped among teens.
- 14% of online teens now say they blog, down from 28% of teen internet users in 2006.
- This decline is also reflected in the lower incidence of teen commenting on blogs within social networking websites; 52% of teen social network users report commenting on friends' blogs, down from the 76% who did so in 2006.
- By comparison, the prevalence of blogging within the overall adult internet population has remained steady in recent years. Pew Internet surveys since 2005 have consistently found that roughly one in ten online adults maintain a personal online journal or blog.
Even if, in the short term, Americans over the age of 30 were able to compensate for the decline of blogging among Americans under the age of 30, over the long term it will not.
It is a pretty safe assumption that younger Americans who are currently turning away from blogs will turn back to the format when they age. It also seems safe to assume that the next generation of Internet users under the age of 30 are unlikely to turn to blogs at a higher rate than Americans currently under the age of 30. Those two assumed trends will eventually lead to a decline in blogging overall.
According to the same Pew survey, it appears that blogs will largely be replaced by social networking sites. At the risk of sounding old and crotchety, that is really too bad.
The rise of blogging over the past decade resulted in a significant shift of personnel with the national media hierarchy. Particularly in the realms of celebrity news and political news / commentary, large numbers of new public figures were able to rise to prominence without going through existing dominant institutions in those fields. Just take a quick look at the blogroll on Daily Kos for a rough look at the several dozen new, prominent, progressive public intellectuals. And that is just on the left-the right has also seen the rise of people like Michelle Malkin through blogging.
However, while blogs have created hundreds of prominent new voices in the national media, social networking sites like twitter have only reinforced the position of people and institutions who were already prominent in other media. Not a single person has risen to become a prominent national media figure just through their tweeting. However, popular TV shows, musicians, and politicians have gained two million followers or more through the medium.
Given this, it is a legitimate worry that the decline of blogging, and the rise of social networking, will mean that the media status quo that was once threatened by the Internet will now be reinforced by it. Rather than new media functioning as a democratizing force, it could become yet another tool of the status quo. Maybe once in a while it will be used by street demonstrators against a totalitarian regime, as it was in Iran, but most of the time it will just make the already famous and the already dominant even more so.
As an ironic final note, you can follow me on twitter here.
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