Puncturing two big myths about ideological voting in the Senate

by: Chris Bowers

Fri Feb 26, 2010 at 13:24


Two of the favorite media narratives about the ideological leanings of Senators are:

  1. Democrats won their large Senate majority by recruiting candidates with center-right leanings.

  2. Both parties are equally polarized against a postulated American moderate mainstream.
An analysis of the three most comprehensive Senate voting scorecards runs counter to both of those beliefs.  The 22 freshman Democratic Senators are actually more left-leaning than the 37 non-freshman Democrats.  Further, Senate Republicans are much more conservative as a group than Senate Democrats.

Explanation can be found in the extended entry.

Chris Bowers :: Puncturing two big myths about ideological voting in the Senate
National Journal released its 2009 Senate voting scorecard today.  You can see the results here.

This scorecard has been controversial in the past, mainly for suddenly labeling John Kerry the most liberal Senator in 2003 (he had never previously held that title), and then for suddenly naming Barack Obama the most liberal Senator in 2007 (again, he had never previously held that title.

This year, to try and offer more perspective on the ideological bent of Senate voting patterns, I have produced a Senate voting scorecard that takes the average 2009-2010 Senate score from National Journal, Progressive Punch (crucial votes), and DW-Nominate.  Here are the mean results from those three scorecards for all 100 current Senators:


The data used for these calculations can be found here (Excel file).  DW-Nominate scores were recalibrated along a 0-100 scale, with -1.000 equaling 100, 0.000 equaling 50, and 1.000 equaling 0.

What does this all mean?  Here are some thoughts:

  • Republicans more right-leaning than Democrats are left-leaning.  To no one's surprise, Republicans are more right-leaning across these three scorecards than Democrats are left-leaning.  The mean score for Democrats is 74.7, while the mean score for Republicans is 18.1.  Without Scott Brown's early and skewed numbers, the average Republican score is 16.9.

  • Democrats did not win with conservatives.  The 22 Democrats who first entered the Senate in 2005 or later have an average score of 76.7%, compared to a score of 73.6% for the 37 Senators who first entered the Senate before 2005.  This means that, contrary to media narratives, Democrats did not retake the Senate, and build a large majority, by moving to the right.  The freshman Democratic Senators have actually pushed the caucus to the left.

  • Can't figure out what to do with Feingold and Sanders:Russ Feingold is listed as the most left-leaning Senator by DW-Nominate, and 56th on National Journal.  Bernie Sanders at 2nd in DW-Nominate and 41st in National Journal.  Given the role that Feingold and Sanders have often played in the caucus, the DW-Nominate scores feel much more on the mark here.  National Journal pegging them as middle of the road Senators appears demonstrative of a flaw in their methodology.
It is also worth remembering that no voting scorecard will ever paint a complete picture of a Senator.  What Senators do at the committee level, what legislation they introduce, their ability to organize and convince colleagues, and what votes they prevent are all also important factors.

Tags: , , , (All Tags)
Print Friendly View Send As Email

Bull (0.00 / 0)
"Two of the favorite media narratives about the ideological leanings of Senators are"

. . . completely incompatible with each other.  It's like saying "Hillary Clinton is a lesbian--and she was having an affair with Vince Foster".


Of course they are bull (4.00 / 1)
But incoherence has never stopped media narratives before...

[ Parent ]
More Great News From The Senate (0.00 / 0)
So the Dems let Jim "Batshit" Bunning off the hook and adjourned for the weekend without passing UI extension.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

Dem leadership didn't really care all that much about 1.2 million people losing UI next week, so rather than make Bunning continue his filibuster, they let him off the hook.

But it won't be Senator Batshit who takes the blame, much as they'll try to spin it that way. When it's more important for the Senate D-Bags to have their weekend than to save a few million people from disaster, you really have to wonder about these pricks.

The Thugs will always be thugs. That's who they are. But if Dems are simply going to allow this stuff to happen (they do still have the majority, right?), then they are committing political suicide. Perhaps that's for the better at this point.


"More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly." -Woody Allen, My Speech to the Graduates


Dump the National Journal (4.00 / 1)
You've identified 4 cases in which the National Journal methodology leads to weird conclusions. A better way to deal with this would probably be just to average the DW-Nominate and Progressive Punch Crucial Votes. Doing it this way puts Sanders at the top (where he probably belongs) with a score of 90.6 and moves Feingold up to number 36 with a score of 75.6. With this method, the Republicans have a mean score of 16.4 (15.1 without Scott Brown) and Democrats have a mean score of 76.8.

This way produces numbers that feel right intuitively based on what we know about these Senators. Any publication that can call Kerry and Obama the most liberal in the Senate should be penalized (or ignored) for their obvious bias.


US House (0.00 / 0)
Recently elected Democrats in the US House are more conservative than average and have pushed the caucus to the right (at least on average) while pushing the House to the left (they are more liberal than the Republicans they replaced).  Think Walt Minnick vs. Bill Sali.

USER MENU

Open Left Campaigns

SEARCH

   

Advanced Search

QUICK HITS
STATE BLOGS
Powered by: SoapBlox