Senate Forecast Update, March 1st

by: Chris Bowers

Mon Mar 01, 2010 at 13:55

• March 1st update: Democratic loss of 7.35 seats (7 when rounded)
  
• Change from Feb 19: Democrats up 0.09 seats
  
• Projected 2010 Senate: Democrats 52-48 (assuming no caucus switches)

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Due to upward ticks in Illinois and Indiana, Democrats have slightly improved their overall stand this week.  They are still at only 52 seats, though, and not much ahead of 51.

Still haven't hit the bottom, but we are close to it.  The situation could still get worse in Wisconsin, Missouri and California, even to the point where control of the Senate becomes a question mark.

Senate forecast overview

	Dems*	GOP
Not up for election	41	23
Currently safe	8	12
Sub-total	49	35
Current polling	2.65	13.35
Projected total	52	48

* = Because they caucus with Senate Democrats, Independents Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman are considered Democrats

The 16 Senate seats that might switch partisan control
(Campaigns where incumbent party currently leads by 18.5% or more are considered "safe," and not listed)
Democrats: 2.65 (3)
Republicans: 13.35 (13)

State	Democrat	Republican	Margin	Current Dem Win %
Wisconsin	Feingold	Wall	D 7.5	97%
WI	Feingold	Westlake	D 12.5	100%
California	Boxer	Campbell	D 5.5	94%
CA	Boxer	Fiorina	D 7.5	97%
CA	R Primary	Campbell	+9.8
Illinois	Giannoulis	Kirk	R 0.8	38%
Missouri	Carnahan	Blunt*	R 3.0	17%
Ohio	Fisher	Portman*	R 5.2	6%
OH	Brunner	Portman*	R 5.0	7%
OH	D Primary	Fisher	+5.5
Colorado	Bennet	Norton*	R 7.0	3%
CO	Romanoff	Norton*	R 7.3	3%
CO	D Primary	Romanoff	+14.0
Nevada	Reid	Tarkanian	R 7.4	3%
NV	Reid	Lowden	R 8.3	2%
NV	Reid	Angle	R 4.3	9%
NV	R Primary	Tarkanian	+0.5
Indiana	Ellsworth	Coats	R 7.5	3%
Indiana	Ellsworth	Stutzman	R 10.0	0%
Indiana	Ellsworth	Hostettler	R 12.5	0%
New Hampshire	Hodes*	Ayotte	R 8.0	2%
NH	Hodes*	Lamontagne	D 8.0	98%
NH	R Primary	Ayotte	+20.5
Pennnsylvania	Specter	Toomey	R 8.8	2%
PA	Sestak	Toomey	R 12.0	0%
PA	D Primary	Specter	+17.0
Arkansas	Lincoln	Baker	R 10.0	0%
AR	Lincoln	Boozman	R 22.0	0%
AR	Lincoln	Coleman	R 5.3	6%
AR	Halter	Coleman	R 5.0	7%
AR	Halter	Baker	R 8.0	2%
AR	D Primary	Lincoln	+16.0
AR	R Primary	Baker	+2.0	(straw poll)
North Carolina	Marshall	Burr	R 10.8	0%
NC	Cunningham	Burr	R 14.8	0%
NC	Lewis	Burr	R 12.5	0%
NC	D Primary	Marshall	+13.5
Kentucky	Mongiardo	Paul	R 12.5	0%
KY	Conway	Grayson	R 7.0	3%
KY	Conway	Paul	R 8.0	2%
KY	Mongiardo	Grayson	R 10.5	0%
KY	D Primary	Mongiardo	+7.0
KY	R Primary	Paul	+20.0
Florida	Meek*	Rubio	R 13.0	0%
FL	Meek*	Crist	R 12.6	0%
FL	R Primary	Rubio	+11.8
Delaware	Coons	Castle*	R +22.3	0%
North Dakota	Potter	Hoeven	R +54.0	0%

* = Faces primary challenge, but heavy favorite
** = Faces primary, but no current polling on primary challengers.

Please let me know how you think the forecast could be improved.  It remains a work in progress.  The methodology can be found here.