WI-Sen: Thompson might challenge Feingold

by: Chris Bowers

Mon Mar 01, 2010 at 22:30


In contrast to the solid news out of New York comes a worrying sign out of Wisconsin.  Tommy Thompson is now exploring a Senate run against Russ Feingold:

Former Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy Thompson, who served four terms as Wisconsin governor, is securing financial pledges and ramping up his outreach to longtime political aides in preparation for a possible campaign against Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold.

Thompson has alerted his Washington-based law firm of his moves and is contacting key clients about the prospect of challenging Feingold, the most tangible signals yet that he's seriously exploring a 2010 campaign.

"The governor has taken additional steps in the past week and will continue to do so over the next several weeks. If the meetings go well, you can expect to see an exploratory committee set up near the end of March," former state commerce secretary and Thompson campaign manager Bill McCoshen told POLITICO.

Thompson leads Feingold in three of the four polls on a hypothetical matchup, and holds a 1% lead across those polls on the simple mean.

The thought of losing Feingold is just... scary.  In addition to his well known fight against the Patriot Act, and being the first Senator to introduce legislation to withdraw troops from Iraq, Feingold was one of only two members of the Senate to vote against the 1999 financial services deregulation, the Iraq war authorization, and the 2008 bailout (Bernie Sanders was the other, and he voted against the de-regulation act while in the House).  Even beyond his votes, he is a public leader for his causes, and manages organize other Senators behind them.

Russ Feingold is worth about five Senators, or more.  It might be time to organize some sort of huge, $3 million + money bomb for him to ward off Thompson's entry into the campaign.

Chris Bowers :: WI-Sen: Thompson might challenge Feingold

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Didn't Thompson ... (4.00 / 1)
back out of a challenge just a week or two ago? .. so now he was against it .. before he was for it

Would Feingold accept a money bomb? (0.00 / 0)
Out of state contributions?

Out of State Contributions? (4.00 / 1)
Feingold accepts plenty of out of state contributions.  That's not a problem.

[ Parent ]
YES! (0.00 / 0)
I received a solicitation from him, and I don't live in his state.

[ Parent ]
What we need is a dKos poll... (4.00 / 3)
Thomson is being solely influenced by the Rasmussen bogus polls...  We need some polling to counteract that...

REID: Voting against us was never part of our arrangement!
SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!


Not 'Solely' (0.00 / 0)
Thompson is also influenced by his giant ego.  He loves the limelight, and he wants to run for something.  Ironically, he's not running for Governor because the structural deficit that he created in his 14 years in office makes that the worst job in the state.  Who would want to get stuck with that?

Lots easier to run for Senate.  It's win-win for Tommy.  If he wins, he gets to be a U.S. Senator.  If he loses, he retains the incredibly lucrative "consulting" business he has.  

Make no mistake, this will be as tough a re-elect for Feingold as the 1998 race against Mark Neumann (the first time Mark Neumann ran statewide!) when a) Feingold handcuffed himself in finances and we had a weak candidate on top of the Gubernatorial ticket (running against Tommy).  


[ Parent ]
speaking of money bombs (4.00 / 3)
Even if it is off topic, TPM says AFL-CIO just pledged to spend $3million against Lincoln. Obviously screwing labor on card check was not forgotten. Netroots raised half a million today too.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo...

New Jersey politics at Blue Jersey.


can we give some love to jennifer brunner too? (4.00 / 2)
is labor supporting brunner in OH?

[ Parent ]
He'll put on a show, but will he do it? (4.00 / 1)
Tommy Thompson is not cut out for this race and even if he did run, he would NEVER debate Feingold.

He Would Never WIN A Debate (0.00 / 0)
Tommy might think he can debate Feingold, but he wouldn't 'win' a debate.  Never underestimate the size of Tommy's ego.

[ Parent ]
GWB never won a debate either (4.00 / 1)
but that's not the way the right wing media played it.


"It sounds wrong...
     ...but its right."


[ Parent ]
Bad News (4.00 / 1)
and if Thomson runs the GOP has a clear, though unlikely path to taking the Senate.

A point about methodology.  In 2006 Survey USA did approval ratings for all US Senators.  In March they found the following:
GOP Senators at or under 45%: Kyl, Burns and Santorum.  Both Burns and Santorum trailed, and Kyl lead.  Kyl won, the other two lost.
GOP Senators under 50% in approval rating (in addition to those above)
Dewine lead by 3, 45-42 and lost in a blowout
Democratic Senators under 50: Nelson and Menendez.
Nelson won because Kathleen Harris got the nomination, and Menendez was tied in the average polling in NJ 37-37 with Kean in March, but went on to win by 9.

GOP Senators under 52 (in addition to the one's above): Talent, Ensign, Chaffee, Allen.  Only Ensign won of these four, but Allen lead by 54-30 over Webb and Chaffee lead 40-34 in March.  Talent trailed by 3, 40-43 in March and wound up losing by 2.  Santorum was dead meat from the start of his race.

In 2006 of the 8 incumbent GOP Senators with approval ratings under 52, only 2 won, and a number of the Senators in this cycle who lost lead by more than the Margin of Error in March.  By contrast, all three of the Democrats with approval ratings under 51 won by at least 9 points, including one who was in a tight race in March.

My point here is that I think your methodology is understating the number of vulnerable seats. Any Democratic incumbent with numbers near 50 must at this stage be regarded as potentially vulnerable, and the odds of losing their seats are not zero.  This analysis suggests seats like Washington, California and potentially New York are in play if the GOP can find candidates.  It also suggests that apparently vulnerable Republicans will not prove to be vulnerable (as the polling in NC appears to suggest).

All of this assumes that current perceptions as expressed in right track/wrong direction and Obama's approval remain constant.

I will be looking at 2004 and 2008 data tomorrow.


Not to say that Feingold isn't a valuable leader in the Senate worth saving (4.00 / 1)
but on fiscal matters he can be an irritating scold.

I CAN COUNT ON ONE HAND (0.00 / 0)
the DECENT & valuable Senators of this country, & FEINGOLD is #1 on my list.

[ Parent ]
I'm with you (0.00 / 0)
on the moneybomb. If we can keep this guy out it will help us focus on the other challenges coming up. Plus it is a great way to say thank you to Feingold for all he has done.

Hey, at least Thompson can be bought! (0.00 / 0)
And as governor he was owned by Philip Morris and others.

Jack Lohman ...
http://MoneyedPoliticians.net

Jack Lohman

http://MoneyedPoliticians.net

http://SinglePayer.info


Yes To A Moneybomb - Here's Why (0.00 / 0)
Tommy Thompson is still popular in Wisconsin.  He was popular as a governor, and he retained that -- along with the hazy sheen of time covering up how shitty a governor he was.  I bet he's near 50% favorable with blue-collar Democrats and suburban Democrats in the state.  

It's not just Ras polling -- Tommy could win this thing.  

A moneybomb for Russ could do two things:

1. Provide him the resources he needs to win against Tommy, who will hump in the cash.  No one has whored himself out to corporate America after his time in public office more than Tommy.  If Tommy gets in, he'll raise a boatload of cash.  He'll attract corporate financiers for 'independent expenditures' of the post-Citizens United variety (some folks can't wait to target Feingold over CFR with all the cash they can muster).  Russ could sure use the grassroots money that people like us can help raise for him.  

2. It might just scare off Tommy.  This is the best-case scenario.

Well, one more too:

3. Show national Democrats that we're not down with supporting any Democrat anymore -- but we'll go all out for good Democrats -- and going all out means raising a shit-ton of money.  Russ is one of our stars -- supporting him with a big ol' moneybomb would be a high-profile way to say "Have a little spine, national Democrats."

We should DEFINITELY do it.  


It's just so embarrasing... (0.00 / 0)
What is it with Wisconsin and Tommy Thompson?  Not only does he have an intelligence deficit, but he is a world class groper.  Never met a woman he didn't touch.  

Anyway, I grew up in Milwaukee and just don't get it.


I live in a true blue state--I will have a choice in November


[ Parent ]
Thompson (0.00 / 0)
Be careful here.  Feingold is not all that great-he's too fiscally conservative, particularly. Worth 5 senators-come on.  Paul Wellstone was better.

That said, Tommy Thompson was close to the worst governor Wisconsin has ever had, and one would be glad for Feingold against him.


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